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Poseidon

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Everything posted by Poseidon

  1. Many eastern european countries looked very good when the first wave hit, but it might be, that they are now missing a certain percentage of immunity paired with the fact, that they just can't afford those lockdowns like richer countries do. This, combined with the faster spreading variants, seems like a deadly cocktail.
  2. they will come after their responsibility when their own needs are satisfied. What's happening with vaccination will be looked at in a very critical way in the coming years. Europe might help out some other partner countries that can afford vaccines, but of course they are not much better, as the world doesn't care about Africa or the poorer nations in Asia. And this might haunt us, because it's most likely, that more mutations will develop in those countries that keep spreading the virus throught heir young populations and those mutations will not stay there, they will come after us as well.
  3. So the question of all questions: Are all those countries with reasonable governments better off because of their leaders being greater role models in terms of sticking to the rules or did populist lead counries at average just get dumber? Or were they always dumber? Oh yes, you CAN blame Boris Johnson for what he did to his country!
  4. When Germany decided to not allow AZ for over 65, data was as follows: Studys showed immune response in adults over 65, but it was a lack of participants and people who later caught the virus that lead to the decicion, that data was not sufficient. What you can do is critizise the government to sticking with the usual procedure during a pandemic ( and we all know that the usual procedure was not REALLY the usual procedure, as everything went way faster than it normally would) And yes, we will copy your effort, because your government threw you right in there and the rest of the world now has a chance to have a life sized safety study, just like the world got to see what happens, when the government shut down the country way too late in march 2020. What a difference a week made... Another lesson the world learned was, that you can't open up the country in the middle of winter, 3 weeks before christmas, with a base incidence in the 100s. So again, there was a risk, your government wanted to give your economy a chance and the result was a faster spreading mutation that got a super boost by that decision and is now keeping the world in alarm. Again and even more. Boris Johnson is a gambler and again, he was in a position where he didn't even have another chance but to go all in with vaccinations. So far it seems it worked. Others will follow, maybe 1 or 2 months later, but the UK already paid a very high price for many bad decisions and btw. many of those decisions were taken against scientific advise. England and Wales, to this point, lost 107.000 aditional lifes to the pandemic compared to a "normal year" (starting March 2020) Upscaled to Germanys population, that's 150k. Germany so far stands at 70k. No, I can't see the future. I don't know how and if a third wave hits Germany and hell, a lot of mistakes have been made over here, but again, looking at where we stand, no, I wouldn't want to be in the UKs position and governed by a person, that let people down and will now be celebrated as a hero that took the right risk when the biggest damage was already done and he had nothing more to lose. At least he will by some.
  5. The UK took risks they only had to take, because the government fucked up for 2 different waves. No, thanks, we have problems in Germany, big ones, but Boris and the UK approach can stay where he is right now.
  6. SA is a very young country, though. Same for India. Nobody really knows why numbers are down, but on the other hand, nobody knows how many people REALLY died. It's a good possibility, that it rolled through India and due to the young age of the country, overall it wasn't as severe as in older countries. Only time will tell I guess.
  7. The UK went out of Lockdown with what? About 14k new cases/day and straight into christmas shopping, opening pubs, open schools, 1000 people capacity in theaters in the middle of winter. As for the US: Their numbers are just as bad, aren't they? 500k+ excess deaths. That's just horrible and the result of the same politics and a horrible role model in charge of the country. Do people really think it's coincidence, that women lead countries fared way better during the pandemics?
  8. Well, if a wave runs through whole of the country by exponential growth, it will plummet at one point an shrink the same way and SA might very well have had one of those waves that literally infected everybody. Some models say, mortality for Covid is "only"0,3%. SA has about 60m inhabitants. Not all 60 Mio will get it or be immune either way, so let's say 80% will get it through a wave. That's 48 Mio who will get infected. 0,3% of them dying is 144k deaths. And now look at SA Excess mortality.... Well, there you go. Of course there are other factors to look at. F.E. more than 7 Million South Africans are HIV positive and thatfor at risk of getting severely sick. But again: Do we want to pay that high of a prize? Especially in countries with a much higher average age and thafor a higher mortality rate?
  9. Yah well, this basically ran through all of south africa looking at excess mortality. There was a week where 24k people died, 8k were expected. So yeah, they might run out quickly, especially in UK and SA, where measures were pretty much non-existant in December compared to many other countries. But do we really want to pay that prize? 120k people more than expected died in SA, Same for UK.
  10. She fell sick after only one dose though. Either way, 90% or 95%, 1 out of 10 or one out of 20 will still get sick.
  11. That's the question. I don't think that's going to be the case anymore. I have the impression that people are way more sensitive now in this department.
  12. In german surveillance, Rhinovirus is pretty much the only virus detected in people in the last couple of weeks and it is very active. Rhinovirus is your typical distributor of a common cold and light sniffle. And well, who, before Covid, would even look after having a runny nose from time to time. There are so many light allergies out there nobody would have a second look after. But we live in different times now.
  13. Your original point was, that there were more than 1000 deaths in the UK because of the flu. This is wrong.
  14. You are aware, that Pneumonia can also be caused by bacteria and seems to be included in those statistics? Also it is mentioned, that a death cann fall in both, the Covi and th Influenza/Pneumonia-Category. It really doesn't make sense to compare this and make a point out of it.
  15. There seems to be something way off with those numbers. If I would guess, 1162 is the number of confirmed deaths ALL YEAR due to Influenza in the UK.
  16. Keep in mind, that people were not too excited to go to the emergency room for many weeks during the pandemic. https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/visits-to-a-e-departments-in-england-in-april-2020-fell-by-57
  17. As for australian measures: I don't understand that system of locking people up at home. We were always allowed to go out in Germany and we still got numbers down. Governments do it again and again. Locking down everything at once and then opening up everything again. They completely skip the lessons to learn about what each meassure actually does within the pandemic. But it's getting clearer and clearer, that gatherings in closed rooms are the main issue here.
  18. @DeeCee You seem to be the Australia expert. One thing that struck me ist, that during Australis "first Wave" 65% of cases were aquired overseas. Only now, during the annual Influenza wave, you have the first real communityl outbreak. So looking at those facts and also other places, like Europe, might there, after all, be a certain kind of seasonality for Corona as well?
  19. That's the case for months though, it's nothing "new", that those antibody tests get included.
  20. Would you mind handing out a link to that information? I was always wondering, if the rest of the year would make up for the peaks at one point.
  21. Herd Immunity is a pipe dream. If we reach part immunity (also with the help of a vaccine), that would be a big win. If part immunity would lead to making Covid a common cold, we should be very happy. This will most probably never go away. The interesting Question would be, how all those other viruses, Rhinovirus, Enterovius, the milder Corona Viruses, looked like when they first got in contact with humans. Were they always harmless colds?
  22. There is something way off though. They say there were 1400 new cases in June. Well, Worldometer has over 8000. Maybe 1400 cases with a known background? School Tracing is pretty easy I guess.
  23. One thing to keep in mind in terms of the virus allegedly weakening: It could also be the fact, that the viral loads got smaller due to masks, social distancing and more outdoor activities.
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