Poseidon

Normal, to nearly hold pace with "Flights" 2nd week drop on discount tuesday after such a big weekend?I think it's outstanding.

But BD 1 pulled a triple DH1...Skyfall is just massive. I think we have to wait till friday, but there is a chance for it to reach 275 mio or maybe even more, so it could become a close race for november crown.Ralph shouldn't be able to top 200mio, TG is just too much competition this year, on the other side, christmas 2012 has just no family movies, it's ridiculous, so maybe i'm wrong.

They just updated numbers for Lincoln there.

Yep, that's what i thought. Just go and check Twitter, seems like it's sold out everywhere.Maybe that's because "Taken", "Argo" and "Hotel Transsilvania" block the biggest theaters, yeah, but it's not doing just 5 or 6 Mio today.

No way "Sinister" ist doing just low to mid teens this weekend. Those have to be very early numbers, it's not doing less than "The Posession".And Argo looks more like 10Mio OD to me, it's going to be a huge success, should easily cross $100Mio.

To be honest, those drops for "TDKR" are just ordinary, nothing special, nothing to be excited about and that's got nothing to do with what happened on friday. The weekend was deflated, yes. But now we've got ordinary drops, coming off a deflated weekend and that's not a good sign for legs, unfortunately.

It's still up to you to be in control of your car, you can trust in your own abilities.A massacre as last night in Colorado shows us how helpless we are in such a situation and that's just scary and it makes us insecure, some are affected more, some less, but it just takes time to get that feeling of insecurity out of your head again.Humans always try to ban bad memories and fears far back in their minds, on a day like yesterday those fears just get real once again.

There are so many movie goers that plan their evenings spontanously and on a day like today, i think they would rather chose to go to the disco or just hang out with their friends than going to the movies, so yeah, what happened today should probably have an impact. How much? Nobody knows it and nobody will ever know it, as nobody will ever know, if Heath Ledgers death had an impact on TDK or not and if yes how much.What i know is, that arguments about that case will still be going on, when todays events are just another hurtful memory erased from peoples minds. I'm not saying this is a bad thing, as nobody could bear feeling all that pain constantly, but today there should be no fighting about such an insignificant thing as missed box office records.On a day like this, it should be enough to acknowledge an amazing opening day for TDKR, to discuss it, but not to fight about it. It's not that number of 80Mio that's significant today, it's the number 12. 12 people lost their lifes, 12 familys lost a family member, many people lost a good friend, a colleague and many are still praying for all those badly injured victims, not to forget about all those scars that will remain inside.No, it's just not the right day for fights, it's a day to be sad.

So how does the 391k opening day mentioned above fit into those numbers? Is it its wednesday or its friday number?

Someone metioned "The Avengers" bigger drops when Spider-Man openend? It's obvious, isn't it? Both are more of a family movie, than Batman is going to be and that's the reason why i wouldn't be surprised by a sub 55% drop next weekend.Transformers 3 did it last year when Potter 7.2 opened and it even had a considerably bigger drop than Spider Man on 2nd weekend (against Horrible Bosses and The Zookeeper, combined making pretty much what Ice Age 4 did this weekend).And if i'm not mistaken, Transformers also lost its IMAX-screens to Potter 7-2, so everything is possible, well not everything. A drop as Hellboy 2's isn't going to happen...Oh, and Ted's BO-performance is a pleasure to follow, isn't it? It just continues 2011s amazing summer comedy run, as if "The Dictator" and "That's my Boy" never happend. Hopefully that's good news for "The Watch"...

I can't see "Madagascar" having a better weekend multiplicator than "Kung Fu Panda", which was an original movie.But who cares? It's going to be an amazing weekend. That combination of an R-Rated Blockbuster and a big family-animation seems to work all the time.

How would it miss 600Mio from here?It caught "The Dark Knight" in dailies and still is way above on weekends.It's going to have another amazing hold this weekend, even after Memorial Day.

I had it at 75Mio after those amazing trailers, but marketing seemed pretty weak, so i lowered my perdiction to 55Mio.I don't think it's going to be frontloaded over the weekend. Why should it be? It's Midnight/OD multiplier looks to be great and the percentage of Kristen Stewart Fans is minimal. Look at "Remember me" with Robert Pattinson...it's Bella and Edward people love, Pattinson and Stewart need to leave that Twilight stuff behind to become potential BO-Draws in the future. "Snow White" may be the first step for Kristen Stewart.Could end up making 60Mio which ist pretty fine. Remember, this may be one of the 10 best OW for Universal ever.

My calculation excluded midnight numbers, obviously.

200Mio is within reach. It's a long way from here, but it's doable and not a ridiculous prediction anymore. Look at Spider Man 3s sunday drop. And remember how IMAX is a bigger factor now than 5 years ago, so "The Avengers" could even drop better.It just needs to jump 7% on Saturday and drop by 20% on Sunday and wouldn't it be an incredibly nice story, that a Marvel movie would open to that magical number, exactly one decade after another Marvel movie crossed the 100Mio mark for the first time?

Then i don't get you point. How does it matter, if those numbers are included or not?

It probably would destroy opening record with an opening day of 80 Mio. I would guess 185Mio-190Mio then. I still expect an OD of 70Mio which should translate to an amazing OW of 165Mio-170Mio.

Question is, which movie are they comparing those early matinee numbers to? To the most recent blockbuster? Hunger Games? Dark Knight? Harry Potter or one of the big Marvel-Films opening in may? We don't know that and it's just impossible to make a projection that early, especially with numbers that high. If i remember right, Hunger Games came in way below the highest early predictions, so everything is possible.My guess is, that "The Avengers" is going gangbusters tonight with big walk up business and sold out shows until late at night and a very strong saturday afternoon with families tomorrow.

I was just saying that it's not a bad weekend to open a movie in general. It's what studios make of it. If you would schedule "The Avengers" on April 26th, nothing would change. I really would like to see the summer season getting extended to april. Just release the right movies and it will work.But i probably will never understand scheduling. There's no typical family movie in may for example, but in june we have 2 animations within 2 weeks. "Madagascar" openend on Memorial Day back in 2005, it would be the perfect opening Date for part 3 as well.

"Obsessed", Nightmare on Elm Street" and "Fast Five" may disagree.

Reading this thread with all its highs and downs was quite entertaining. Fanboys fighting "haters" (seems like it's enough to make a pessimistic prediction to be called one), Fanboys getting excited until Nikki reveals her not intended aprils fool joke (that came one day early) by lowering her friday estimates.It just shows, that fighting about numbers is just silly. In the end, they are numbers, facts, nothing to fight about and you can be right or wrong with your predictions. While all the fighting has without a doubt an entertaining side, it's just kind of annoying most of the time and i would rather have discussions about why a movie performs the way it does.Those numbers are incredible for "Hunger Games" should do another 65Mio over the weekend, beating the 2 other big releases combined."Titans" (as I predicted earlier in this thread went down from early estimates) disappoints, nothing to celebrate about that number."Mirror, Mirror" didn't follow my early predictions as it seems, but still manages to have a decent weekend above some very low predictions after the first trailer.

My Interpretation of the early numbers:"Wrath of the Titans" is a sequel. "Wrath of the Titans" is an evening movie. But as it's a sequel, it should potentially do better in matinees than "John Carter" for example. So if they compare the early numbers to "John Carters" or other non sequels, maybe even to "Clash of the Titans", they could very well be overestimating Wrath that early."Mirror, Mirror" may be compared to other kids movies, so those early numbers are quite good, but as i expect it to do very well in evening showings, those numbers could go up later.Yes, I expect "Wrath" and "Mirror, Mirror" to be much closer with the final numbers, but probably i will be wrong. .But one thing i'm sure of: "Wrath" is not doing 40Mio with those friday numbers.

Twilight actually had the best drop over the christmas weekend in 2008 and by far the best drop over the new year weekend and overall had amazing late christmas-legs.Just saying...

That's just outstanding.How can it beat some Potter and all the Twilight Movies? I think one of the answers is, that there was just not enough time to build an anti-hype. Everthing went just too fast, it was perfect timing in the end.

Foreign markets, especially the fast growing ones like China, Russia and other asian markets really turn out to be a safety net for big budget blockbusters. 10 years ago "John Carter" would probably have been a financial disaster, now we're looking at a worldwide total of something between 300 and 400 Mio in cinemas alone. That's without merchandise an Blu Ray/DVD sales. It's surely not what Disney hoped for when they greenlit it, but it's far from being another "Mars needs Moms". Let's see, if it can manage to top $100 Mio domestic now."The Lorax" did a great job dropping just under 45%. It had a massive opening, so the 2nd weekend really mens great news for Universal. Who would have thought of "The Lorax" as a 200Mio picture after all those 3D-family-movie-fails last year? Just great."Project X" really surprises with its second weekend hold. Started being very frontloaded and now has a pretty good drop and should top the 50Mio Dollar mark easily."Journey 2" really has a strange run. One weekend it's getting massive jumps, the other week it's doing very strong week-numbers. It should top 100Mio now, but after this weekend it's looking far more difficult, than after thursdays numbers.All those february holdovers, there are so many hits. "Safe House", "The Vow", "Act of Valor", "Chronicle", "Woman in black",even "A thousand words" somehow managed to top Eddie Murphys recent family movie fails, allthough being on far less screens. Following Box Office means so much fun this year. Usually now would be the time to get very excited for summer season, but there's so much more to come the next few weeks, "21 Jump Street", "Hunger Games", "Titanic", "Wrath of the Titans", "American Pie 4" and even "Mirror, Mirror" and "The Five-Year Engagement" could end up as 100Mio grossers.And after that there's probably the biggest summer season ever and that without a Transformers or Potter Movie. 2012 rocks!