ShinyDave

They assumed that Melissa McCarthy meant tentpole numbers - and in the mid-2010s that was certainly not indefensible, but she's never been an obvious choice as the go-to for a $150m would-be international megahit. Give her (and Feig) a good script and a mid-budget production and you could get major ROI on your $50m + P&A, and that got proven multiple times in the first half of the 10s. Ghostbusters '16 was arguably Exhibit A of the limits to Hollywood's focus on big-budget tentpole plays and proven IP. You had a proven IP that couldn't work internationally, but they tried to turn it into a tentpole anyway. Ghostbusters is a winning IP, sure, but it's got very specific ways it wins.

Sometimes the conspiracist in me wonders if Ghostbusters 2016 was built to fail, to go "we gave women a chance to lead a tentpole and it didn't work, let's not do that again!" It's a ridiculous thought, but no more ridiculous than greenlighting a $150m horror comedy, even one using a highly established IP.

After my Derby Killer escape with Arctic Dogs (and the happy highball on Harriet) I guess I've got a target on my back now. Target for this week: be above-average on holdovers.

Fox News did air on Sky as part of the grab-bag of international news channels they have, almost certainly because both were parts of the Murdoch empire, albeit in Sky's case as a minority controlling stake. (Which is not unrelated to why they now don't - it was pulled with suspicious timing in the midst of the regulatory enquiry when 21CF tried to buy the remainder of Sky, which ultimately sparked a bidding war that Comcast won.)

With that weather setup, is there even a chance that Dory and Dragon actually go up on last weekend's sunshine-shrunk numbers this weekend?

Brutal week for me. I made one fundamental mistake with the amount of holdover business, and everything else was irrelevant. Hopefully I'm in the top half on new releases only, to salvage something approaching pride from an embarrassing week at exactly the wrong time.

Weather forecasting models hinting at the prospect of next weekend being a washout, which could be huge for all the family movies. Maybe one or more of them even grow versus this weekend? (I don't know if that would be a realistic possible outcome. Others on here will presumably have evidence either way?) Can't say I'm shocked at the low opening for Pete's Dragon. As well as the immense competition both theatrical (Dory, BFG, Pets) and otherwise (Olympics, outdoor activities), it didn't seem to have a big marketing push here, or at least not one I was exposed to.

If you wish for it to be interpreted that way, I have no complaints. Am looking forward to seeing how the table shakes up! It was an interesting one, with booby traps galore. I pretty much fell into every last one of them

Studio estimates in. Good news - I called that Pete's Dragon would struggle (though still didn't go far enough) and I was in about the right area on SS Bad news - I fumbled on every. Single. Other. Holdover.

At this rate it looks entirely possible that the UK run will be remarkably close to domestic. Headed for around £30m, which is $39m at the current ER; based on the market response to betting markets pricing in only a 10-15% chance of Brexit at one point right after the polls closed (I actually made a significant profit betting against this even though I was pre-Remain myself!), the ER in the event of no Brexit would likely have been GBP = 1.5USD or so, plus there'd have been less economic uncertainty affecting families and their discretionary expenditure. As such, it doesn't seem that unreasonable to think that the UK take may even have exceeded domestic in the event of a Remain vote here. Of course, this film got a nine-figure budget to perform at that level in North America too...

Yeah knew it was Disney, I was putting that in as "films that FB needs to beat to thwart the Disney sweep" and hadn't clocked that you'd already factored that in with your wording!

And Rogue One, which only needs to retain 48.4% of TFA to get the billion. Penguins of Madagascar retained 49.9% of Madagascar 3 two and a half years later. Just saying.

Not a surprise. Forecast suggests its best opportunity could be from a potential thundery breakdown on Wednesday.

Wouldn't you know it, as it stands we're heading for a week where @Rolling Thunder wins with his usual 88er. Well, at least that's one thing I've apparently called right this time. How are the holdovers clinging on this well? Didn't people have the weekdays to watch the films they passed on for SS to then regret their choice?

This "disappointment" has already made more WW than BvS, a far more "sure thing" franchise film than a family movie sequel practically a generation on from the original could ever be. It also cost slightly less to produce, and probably to market too. To get anywhere near Nemo's levels of attendance - remember, we're comparing with one of the most beloved films of an era where computer animation tentpoles were rare and almost always huge - in the US was already impressive. To come anywhere near even the same raw revenue numbers in Europe with a release window that, by sheer accident, could scarcely have been worse-placed if you tried? Yeah, BV have to take that. Throw in a useful showing in China, and you have yet another megahit for a studio that is having one after another lately. A delayed sequel like this, especially for a family movie, is never, ever a slam dunk. Heck, BV showed that themselves with Alice 2, and that had half the delay! Dory, though, is going down as one of the biggest animated hits ever.

Hah. I did make a point of ending my prediction for Sausage Party with .69m.

I probably went too aggressive lowballing all the way around, given the Olympics were in play last weekend and are rating far lower than in 2012. I'm honestly going to be delighted with top-30 this week, my predictions are so bad. This is where my early run is exposed as fraudulent. Incidentally, no Mojo predictions this week.

Although the Derby prediction window closes hours before Thursday preview results are in.

Dory will definitely suffer at the weekend and during the mini-heatwave/Spanish plume setup forecast for early next week. If there's a thundery breakdown on Wednesday (eminently possible with such a configuration) it should have a big day then. The BFG is literally making more money on weekdays than weekend days. Do summer holiday family flicks usually play like that?

Indeed. I'm not going in expecting to beat one of the top three, but I think I stand a great chance of scaring any of them. On a weekly basis my first objective is always to beat the average score. If I can keep on keeping on in that department, then I'm at least making sure someone has to play well to beat me.

Maybe this is an attempt at capturing the pent-up demand from frustrated crowds who failed to get a Cursed Child ticket? Or perhaps even trying to create an illusion of comparable scarcity?

That's the sort of movie that usually gets a platform launch, but I guess that they saw its UK run as the equivalent somehow in terms of building WOM? But that was way back in May. I'm confused.

Bring it. My aim for this tournament - get to the second round and get one of the big three to at least slightly worry when they see they're facing me. I'll start dreaming of deep runs for #5.

It'll be interesting to see how much of a dive people predict for SS. The new releases also feel tough to predict, making for a potential bloodbath of a week. 88% might do it this time around, @Rolling Thunder!

Is this inspired by a certain R-rated release we have to predict during this tournament? Bring it. I think I'm going to be someone nobody wants to draw in the first round, given my limited-but-strong record.