YM!

No tracking tonight for me, swamped with work

Like if this wasn't a last ditch edit of a mini-event streaming show, had actual songwriters and Disney actually had a few 200m+/600m+ hits from the animation arms post-pandemic, I'd feel like Wicked probably curbstomps it. Feel like numbers around Moana, maybe 20% more domestic and worldwide. Don't get even with Disney’s stubbornness on leaving Thanksgiving. Yeah it's their spot but like BH6 kick-off November just fine and ontop of that, this underperforming makes things harder for Zootopia 2 and even Frozen 3 somewhat facing challengers.

WickedMoan

Did a bit of quick math in following some comparisons for IO2 using your earlier MTC1 data out of boredom again and pace is pretty good. Elemental MTC1 (T-20) Previews - 3376/299917 53642.64 2119 shows +517 Friday - 3247/481069 47153.81 3251 shows +762 Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 T-20 Previews - 4710/306909 69980.52 2016 shows +1040 Friday - 4405/452087 64904.23 2841 shows +1002 Mermaid MTC1 Wednesday - 9277/35113 202836.99 154 shows Previews(T-18) - 28579/908358 505434.25 5533 shows Wish MTC1 (T-19) Early Shows(11/18) - 1254/22152 14477.12 188 shows Previews (11/21) - 4801/212209 73574.29 1307 shows 9.96m Previews if IO2 follows Elemental 11.45m previews if IO2 follows KFP4 5.32m Previews if IO2 follows Wish with EA 5.25m Previews if IO2 follows Wish minus EA 4.63m Previews if IO2 follows TLM minus EA 3.81m previews if IO2 follows TLM with EA 6.74m preview average. The same caveats apply (IO2 should have higher ATP than the other animations due to skew somewhat older and having PLFs but having lower ATP than TLM as that skews older and likely has more of audience to buy upfront, and Wish being on Discount Tuesday muddies things up) but the important thing is that pace healthy and gainer ground against its comparisons. Feel like tracking is right on the money of 75-85m OW but could grow stronger if pace continues strong and reviews are strong.

@cayommagazine Taika Waititi (Let’s Eat Dad, Jojo Rabbit) has signed on with Infinite Studios to make his next film which based on the behind the scenes drama which even extends to financial crimes of the worst animated movies of all time: Foodfight!

… forgive me. Foodfight!

Southeast Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking - 5/25/24 - 4 Theaters used (North Shore, Menomonee Falls, Brookfield Square, Majestic Cinema Inside Out 2 - 6/13/14 - T-18 - 12 screens (3 for North Shore, 4 for both Menomonee Falls and Majestic Cinema and 1 for Brookfield Square) with 35 showings 22 tickets sold (4 2D/13 PLF/5 3D PLF) - The pace is moving nicely as we have about two and a half weeks left. Think there’s potential for ticket count pace to grow strongly. I have no comparisons but it is at Garfield’s EA-less T-3 ticket sales. Going to probably not say much on preview predictions but my thoughts of an OW in between 75m-100m still stand. Not much to make of things until we get to around 2 weeks for rudimentary guessing and opening week for figuring things out. Bad Boys: Ride or Die - 6/6/14 - T-11 - 10 screens (2 for North Shore and Brookfield, 3 for Majestic and Menominee) 55 tickets sold (including 22 from EA) (13 2D/20 PLF) - Like IO2 the pace for Bad Boys is small but mighty. EA is only available at Majestic much like Garfield. With EA, it’s a few tickets shy of Furiosa’s T-6 but without them it’s only a bit over half. Either way both is really good. I think we’ll continue to see the gap grow over the week but as of rn, I am thinking around $6-7m previews without EA solely on vibes to an OW north of $55m. Inside Out 2 6/13/24 T-18 12 2D, 3D, PLF, 3D PLF 3 6 0 13 22 4 13 5 Bad Boys EA 6/5/25 T-10 1 PLF - - - 22 22 Bad Boys Ride or Die 6/6/24 T-11 10 2D, PLF 7 13 8 5 33 13 20

Dune 2 was literally only 7.8% off missing the top 100, 6% off of missing 300m and 3% off of not getting into the top 115 🙄

Apparently RPK said Green is still on, they’re adding another writer for touches up and this user confused that.

Is this a bad weekend? Yes without any denial. Am I disappointed that Furiosa didn’t do better? Yes. Do I think theatrical might be in trouble this year? Somewhat. However, I realized yesterday that through my doom and gloom it won’t help me feel any better. I’m grateful that theaters are still here and that Furiosa still exists. Sometimes we get so wrapped up in numbers and what makes a film a flop or hit, we don’t really appreciate the film themselves sometimes. I’m aiming to see I Saw the TV Glow next week and likely Apes with the family. Also I can’t really say theaters are 100% doomed when June looks far more promising than this May did. This month just didn’t hit because there wasn’t anything the GA really gravitated too but theaters and studios tried their damndest. This weakness this month was due to strikes due to the studios’ own greed and refusing to play ball - they made their beds and now they must lay in them. It might happen again with the animation/VFX strike looming. This March was pretty damn strong and so long as we rebound in the Fall, 2024 exhibition will be okay. Not to mention 2025 and 2026 look far stronger on paper so theaters will still continue and could return just as strong. However, if theaters become the next drive-ins, I’ll be sad but also grateful they’re still here.

I imagine it must be like a generic 2000s animation during the CG craze in that it’s not funny and kinda boring. I’m shocked Garfield has worse reviews and audience reception than Chicken Little lol.

Two of them are in active development with one slated for 2026. Another could be in 2025.

I think for now IO2 and BB4 are looking fine. I mean I don’t like the fact that they seem more walkup reliant and much prefer they’d be obvious sizable but as of right now there’s no warning signs outright to panic. I have faith those two will rebound and if not, there’s still DM4 and Twisters. And a surprisingly stacked holiday period.

I am pretty cool with this as I do like Black Widow but I feel like it’d be more lucrative to just call this Black Widow 2 or Black Widow and the Thunderbolts.

Ik but it’s the principle of things. Don’t think it will move the needle as much but the longer the period helps make the illusion of an uncertain streaming date.

120 days. Make it at as inconvenient as possible for windows.

Honestly, at this point they can wait until after the Multiverse saga for Blade.

Feel like Horizon two-parter’s target audience likely won’t give a shit about reviews and could be too soon to write off.

“General audiences numbered 58%, parents 19% and kids under 12 were 23%. General audience gave the animated pic 3 1/2 stars while parents and kids awarded it 4 1/2 stars. Overall, women outnumber men for Garfield at 55% to 45%.” Surprised at the larger adult skew but we’ve been noticing that most family film movies in general have a sizeable GA skew but granted it’s just Thursday.

Thing is Film Twitter is so large and similar behavior in various sub categories. CBM Twitter is literally Film Twitter as well.

In fairness to Charlie he has stated many times on the thread that it’s possible for high ATP being a culprit, so did Keyser. Sometimes you get an overprediction or two but it happens. That’s like saying we can’t have early DHD estimates.

It doesn’t include EA it seems.

There’s also a weird seperate between CBM Twitter, Film Twitter or some other franchise Twitter when they are all literally Film Twitter. And even then Film Twitter and all various components aren’t indicative of the GA. The morning on Reddit, one dude was rooting for Furiosa to fail to spite Film Twitter.

I mean this is in the nicest way possible but the fuck are you yapping about?