YM!

Did a Q&D for Garfield to monitor growth and with EA, it’s currently at 72 tickets (however only 22 tickets are for Thursday). Not seeing any movement for Garfield at any of the theaters, feels like it’s dead. It should get to a total similar to IF T-6 hours before opening (so idk like Thursday at 6:00 AM) but that’s mainly because of EA.

Tbh when you’re white enough and famous enough, you can get away with almost anything. I say this regardless of industry. Roman Polanski will never see the inside of a jail cell and neither would Woody Allen. I mean there’s a reason why Majors’ career is dead but Pitt will likely never have to face up to consequences unless he does something more dire. Or how Depp’s team were successfully able to paint the image of “mutual abuse” and in less than three years, the GA will forgive him whenever Disney does Pirates 6.

Southeast Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking Sample - 5/20/24 - 4 Theaters used (North Shore, Menominee Falls, Brookfield Square, Majestic Cinema Deadpool and Wolverine - 7/26/24 - T-66 days til previews, 16 screens (3 for North Shore Cinema and Brookfield Square, 6 for Majestic Cinema and 4 for Menominee Falls) 42 showings (14 PLF/7 3D PLF/7 3D/14 2D) 650 ticket solds (99 in North Shore, 65 in Menominee Falls, 52 in Brookfield Square, 434 in Majestic Cinema) (95 2D/509 PLF/46 3D (44 of which are 3D PLF)) GODDAMN! What a day. As I have said before, it has sold about 10.6x times the amount of Furiosa's T-6. It also in one theater makes up a sizeable percentage of most mid-sized Marvel's T-2 in a span of hours. I do not have any megahits to compare with but this is such a strong start. Definitely feel like we got a potential 25m previews/150m+ opener on our hands. Still don't buy 200m OW but am starting to see 30m previews/175m+ OW as a strong possibility.

I’ll update later but DP&W on its first day has sold over 10x the amount of tickets as Furiosa T-6 here in the SE Wisconsin roundup. For those who feel like a throwback, it’s at 70% of Shang-Chi’s and Venom: Let There Be Carnage’s T-2 at North Shore, 47% of Homecoming’s T-2 at North Shore, and 41.25% of Thor: Rangarök’s T-2 at North Shore - all of which just using DP&W’s T-66 at North Shore!

Yeah at the theaters I track 3D PLF is either getting a primetime show and another show (like 1/3 or 1/4 if the theater has 3 PLFs) or in North Shore getting most of primetime in 3D PLF.

Will track DP3 later but I think I might feel more optimistic about the 175m+ some are adamant about. Lincoln Square has had an IMAX showing sold out and in the four SE Wisconsin theaters I track, DP3 is about over half of Furiosa’s T-4 Thursday sales in the past fifteen minutes in just the PLF showings.

As for DP3, quick check as I’m at work but Like it’s already at half of Furiosa’s T-4 sales here in the past ten minutes in just two of the theaters PLF shows.

It shouldn’t. The Marcus with IMAX in Illinois have their showtimes up.

Did a bit of quick math in following some comparisons for IO2 using your earlier MTC1 data. Elemental MTC1 (T-25) Previews - 2859/301719 44379.23 2109 shows +219 Friday - 2485/479191 36472.47 3214 shows +125 Wish (T-27) Early Shows(11-18) - 446/22116 4661.36 188 shows Previews(11/21) - 3945/212538 59858.67 1305 shows Wednesday(11/22) - 3273/398204 44992.33 2451 shows Mermaid MTC1 T-22 Wed - 7913/34986 173283.51 153 shows Previews - 24206/904581 429233.46 5507 shows Friday - 19653/1027026 332296.41 5662 shows Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 T-20 Previews - 4710/306909 69980.52 2016 shows +1040 Friday - 4405/452087 64904.23 2841 shows +1002 For Thursday previews: 8.52m Previews if IO2 follows Elemental 8.29m previews if IO2 follows KFP4 5.32m Previews if IO2 follows Wish with EA 4.63m Previews if IO2 follows Wish minus EA 3.96m Previews if IO2 follows TLM minus EA 3.25m previews if IO2 follows TLM with EA 5.66m preview average True Friday: 12.07m Friday if IO2 follows TLM 15.01m Friday if IO2 follows Wish 30m Friday if IO2 follows KFP4 31.7m Friday if IO2 follows Elemental 22.2m Friday average Not a fan of the preview average especially when Disney has underperformed at MTC2 so it’s not within in history to rely on it overperforming as it did for KFP4 and IF but really like the True Friday although it is very inconsistent as I am not sure if IO2 would jump that high from the Thursday average. However, there’s a lot of variables. 1. TLM should probably skew more towards young adults than families by nature which should manipulate ATP higher. 2. IO2 should and does have a higher ATP than either Wish, KFP4 or Elemental due to have total PLF control and presumably skews a bit older. 3. Wish was on Discount Tuesday so that should muddy up the comparisons. 4. The comparisons apart from Elemental are either days before or days behind. 5. Both Wish and KFP4 opened outside the summer season so internal multiplier will be different (especially with Wish’s five day) due to how summer and fall have entirely different natures in walkups which leaves just TLM/Elemental as viable comparisons. In short, it could be both useful to compare but also not enough to compare due to demographical concerns and ATP but what it does show (if I’m getting this right as I really am not good at reading ATP) that IO2 should at least open above 65m?

Tbh reshoot/poor test screening rumors barely phase the GA in terms of walkups/ticket buying. I do think that while DP3 has better pros and less cons than DP2, I think CBMs were in a far better place in terms of overall positivity in 2018 vs 2024. I do think while I don’t think the past MCU films will affect it, superhero movies apart from Across and Guardians 3 have been on the downturn last year. Don’t think it’ll define D&W but it’s something to consider. Going to go with $160m/$400m/$900m OW/DOM/WW before the trailers drop.

BTW here is the exact Seats sold/Seats available total Furiosa - T-4 - 79/3689 (19/1137, 9/707, 9/835, 42/1019) Garfield + EA - T-4 - 59/2065 (including the 50 tickets EA) (0/552, 4/392, 0/577, 5/544) Inside Out 2 - T-27 - 8/6358 Bad Boys Ride or Die - T-20 - 22/5370

Not really sold on highest grossing R rated movie just yet but I agree that 250/600/1.3B would be unrealistic even with the MCU at a much stronger place in 2021 vs 2024.

I just realized I got no good comparisons for animation now that I’m doing new models. IF sold about 113 tickets on the lead up six and a half hours before previews, and Wish did 247 tickets thirty minutes before showtime in North Shore and Menomonee. Then I got stuff from my North Shore days with Rise of Gru at 84 tickets sold one day before release at North Shore.

Southeast Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking - 5/19/24 - 4 Theaters used (North Shore, Menominee Falls, Brookfield Square, Majestic Cinema Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga 5/23/24 T-4 days til previews, 8 screens (2 per theater), 20 showings (12 PLF/8 2D) 79 tickets sold (19 - North Shore, 9 at Menominee Falls, 9 at Brookfield Square, 42 at Majestic Cinema) (8 in 2D/53 in PLF) That’s about a 30% increase within the past two days for Furiosa. Not much has changed, it’s seeing the most traffic around the whiter areas of Mequon and Waukesha but pace is solid and growth is normal. We should get a few more shows on Tuesday and I’ll try to track both it and Garfield on Thursday during showings. Feel about right for the 4-5M previews range. The Garfield Movie 5/23/24 T-4 days til previews, 5 screens (1 per theater but Brookfield Square), 16 showings (12 2D/4 3D) 9 tickets sold (4 at Menominee Falls, 5 at Majestic Cinema) (8 2D/4 3D) (+50 from EA so 59 total.) Returns are common but apart from a decent EA showing, it feels really muted. Feels like with IF doing solid, it took some air out of Garfield but maybe reviews and a strong last week push Garfield could turn it around but not feeling it rn. Thinking the 1.8-2.25M previews range with EA.

With less than twenty minutes to go, 50 tickets were sold for EA. Thinking around 500-600K for EA, so like 2M previews total.

Deadpool has 42 showings for previews across four SE Wisconsin theaters I track. About 20% more showings than IO2 and about the same amount of PLFs spread and likely 3-4 screens a theater for Thursday previews, but has SuperScreen, in addition to two UltraScreen screens in Majestic Cinema. There seems to be a 3D push with North Shore having primetime showings in 3D UltraScreen.

Any idea on what we’re expecting for DP3 presales wise. Feel like an earlier start means a more diminishing opening for more robust jumps later. Feel like somewhere around Guardians 3 OD is right.

Tbh only real concern I have for IO2 is if MTC2 underperforms presales like it has for the past few Disney movies as there being no-upfront demand and would need to really rely on walkups and families which Disney hasn’t been doing well with. Then again, suspect IO2 should more or less skew the same as KFP4 OW wise (decent 18-34 bracket at 48%, 18-24 within 30s). Right now there’s no red flags just that IO2 is performing more like a kids movie than a family event which isn’t necessarily a death blow as kids movies matter more on pace increases than how much upfront demand in terms of OW potential. Definitely has the capacity for an 100m OW as seats are definitely numerous. Besides with IF and Garfield looking to modestly, there’s still more than enough room for IO2 to do well.

The Garfield Movie - Lazy Sunday Early Access - 5/19/24 T-1 days til previews, 1 theater (Brookfield Square) 23 seats sold - all 2D. The combined previews total for Garfield is 35 tickets, which is pretty solid. Still thinking around 2-2.75m previews with EA as while not as widespread, the showings seem like they’re filling up nicely. Think Garfield does about the same as IF though OW as due to the likely lower ATP Keyser hinted at iirc and seemingly little screen space with no PLFs.

Southeast Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking - 5/17/24 - 4 Theaters used (North Shore, Menominee Falls, Brookfield Square, Majestic Cinema Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga 5/23/24 T-6 days til previews, 8 screens (2 per theater), 20 showings (12 PLF/8 2D) 61 tickets sold (15 - North Shore, 4 at Menominee Falls, 7 at Brookfield Square, 35 at Majestic Cinema) (8 in 2D/53 in PLF) Pretty solid I guess for Furiosa. Seems that most of it's business is in the Marcus Theaters in Mequon/Waukesha so not really expecting much a diverse showing but there seems to be a fanbase around it. Feel good in everyone's 4.5-5M previews range. The Garfield Movie 5/23/24 T-6 days til previews, 5 screens (1 per theater but Brookfield Square), 16 showings (12 2D/4 3D) 12 tickets sold (4 at Menominee Falls, 8 at Majestic Cinema) (8 2D/4 3D) Meh, kids animation doesn't really make much notion until the Monday for release and Garfield seems indicative of that. Did not do Early Access as I think only Majestic is doing it in the four theaters I am sampling. Thinking the 1.5-2M previews range folks were spitting out makes sense. Nothing screams breakout though and the fact it's getting one screen, maybe two at most for previews makes me feel like OW might be similar to IF. Bad Boys: Ride or Die 6/6/24 T-20 days til previews, 10 screens (2 at North Shore and Majestic Cinema, 3 at Brookfield Square and Menominee Falls), 29 showings (15 PLF/14 2D) 22 tickets sold (0 at North Shore, 11 at Menominee Falls, 4 at Brookfield Square, 7 at Majestic Cinema) (9 in 2D/13 PLF) Again, another solid start-ish. Menominee being the key driver is what I was expecting as out of all the four in this group, I expect Bad Boys to be the most diverse. Can't really predict much on previews but I am feeling confident in the 55-60m OW range for the past few weeks. Inside Out 2 6/13/24 T-27 days til previews, 12 screens (3 at North Shore, 4 at Menominee Falls and Majestic Cinema, 1 at Brookfield Square), 35 showings (14 PLF 2D/6 PLF 3D/15 2D) 8 tickets sold (2 at Menominee Falls and 6 at Majestic Cinema) (2 in 2D/6 in PLF) Seems IO2 is playing more like a kid's animation than a family event in start of presales. However, it is pretty solid for what it is. Do think there is definite potential for this pulling a Minions 2/Kung Fu Panda 4 on the lead up for presales and blowing up provided marketing stays strong and reviews are at least in the 80s range on RT. Do not have comparisons for anything but I like that Majestic is healthy and it about 66% of Garfield T-6. Thinking anywhere from 75m-100m OW rn but can change as we go along.

Same for KFP4 iirc Depends on skew, if it skews younger I can see an A like Migration in adults don’t vibe with it but families do.

Production has officially started for The Adventures of Tintin: The Calculus Affair today. Finn Wolfhard (Mighty Fall franchise, IT) has been casted as the main lead Tintin, with Hugh Jackman (Logan, The Odyssey franchise) signed on as Captain Haddock, Tintin's key ally with Andy Serkis (Venom, Lord of the Rings franchise) as Professor Calculus - a mentor to Tintin who's kidnapping drives the adventure. Chris Diamantopoulos (Mickey Mouse, Silicon Valley) has signed as one of the main antagonists, Rastapopoulos, a criminal mastermind of many identities and a criminal empire entrenched in shadows.

18-34 and you’d be quite shocked to know there’s a decent amount of twenty something and thirty something parents. We don’t really get breakdown on kids-parents dynamic anymore from DHD. Elemental even had 66% between 18-34, although do doubt 18-24 was as big. Actually - DHD’s weekend breakdown was this “The Jack Black-voiced franchise also brought out a big 18-34 quotient and, despite the fourthquel being years later, that fanboy segment, older and younger, continued to be vibrant for the IP with ages 18-34 accounting for 48% of the audience and 18-24 at 27%.” I believe you’re looking at OD demographics which should skew more teen/YA.

So far in the four Wisconsin theaters I’ve tracked, IF is at about 45% of where Wish was at in the two theaters I’ve tracked 30 minutes before previews. Think it could get to something similar before preview time and will post something more conclusive closer to preview time.

Dodged the biggest bullet of Jon Watts directing this.