YM!

Think 2-2.5M previews would be a good range for both Trolls and Wish. If they did those, using Bad Guys multiple of 20x (not the best comparison for Trolls but it’s mid level Dreamworks outside of summer), that’s 40-50m OW for Trolls (Grinch did 30.5x which would be a perfect comparison but that was 2018 but if weekend days show strength it’s possible). As for Wish, using Encanto/SW average of 25x as that feels fair accounting for hypothetically not being as bad as SW but also having EA previews and 3pm start, that’s a 50-63m five day. Both results would be good for them. Feel for 60m though, would like above 3M previews with EA.

Seige of Savage is done and will be posted tomorrow.

@SLAM! @cookie @El Squibbonator @Ethan Hunt @Hiccup23 @lamamama @MCKillswitch123 @4815162342 @Reddroast @Rorschach @tyson67roberts We only got 36 films and there’s not enough for every spot on the calendar to have a viable game year, I proposed some form of final deadline that’s all or nothing by this date. Either Monday, November 20th or Monday, November 27th.

With Marvels DOA and this supposedly being really good, strong reviews and an all out marketing blitz can carry this to 65-75m OW imho.

Wasn’t complaining lol, was just curious why it didn’t update as Trolls did even with slight momentum change.

Tbh most of those characters are well liked though. Like we can debate about The Marvels leads but most of these characters are at base levels are liked even with mid movies. Ffs both Shang-Chi and Wakanda had strong audience reception.

I think all of us really didn’t realize 17 projects in two years would really take the wind out of the sails. That’s two phases worth of material in a short timeframes Even though for most films, you won’t need to have seen the shows to move forward, it feels like that because they’re so many. It also is eating into Feige and the production’s team time to perfect them. Think post SW, we will either get 3 movies and a show or 2 movies and 2 shows onward yearly.

Even without Spidey, think the name alone gets it to 1B even with the characters not having as much potency now because you see characters teaming up.

Yeah, Universal has far more care for windows than say Disney. You won't see Trolls on Peacock until March.

Wish was supposed to be tracked today but there seems to be no record of it.

Tbh I don't get why Universal didn't see the writing on the wall and just move Trolls to Christmas and Migration to March, as I doubt KFP4/DM4 will make their current dates but are still wanted for spots. I'll give Asaz this. I don't think he knows how to market anything that's not a guaranteed sell, but doing the songs early, and finally doing early screenings help this a ton. Feel confident in a range of 50-80m five day/150-250m total domestically. All that happens that determines a hit now is quality. Still won't count Migration out, the trailers do well and I'm confident Comcast will do it's all-out marketing next month. If it weren't for Wonka, I think it could easily be another Sing. Honestly if this does at least Elemental numbers, think both arms will be back in action especially with an IO2/Zoo2 next year. Their animation side needs the least fixing because the problem was a combination of Iger and Chapek’s Plus greed, not so much the films.

I think the plan is basically what you're saying. Soft reboot to snip out anything they don't like and fix things they want, and a recast or two (looking at either new T’Challa be it the son due to timey-wimey bullshit or multiverse, and maybe another Cap - totally thinking they'll do the two Spider-Man approach with Cap) but I don't find it implausible to take the Gunn DCU route if Deadpool 3 ends up being divisive (there is most definitely a part of Feige and mcu fans have this mindset that they can and should do better than Fox did due to greater appreciation, if that doesn't work I can see it shaking Feige), Fantastic Four also ends up being divisive (the Fox angle and they're likely to be a new face of the MCU), and most importantly if Kang Dynasty doesn't go well. However, it would take those missteps. Marvels, Cap 4, Thunderbolts and Blade can bomb but they're not necessarily killing blows like the 3 I mentioned, and if they're liked - Feige will find a way to incorporate them further. Tbh I think Cap 4 should do around 500-600 if good because I think Hulk stuff is a sell and enough people like the brand for Cap even if it's not Evans, and I stand by FalCap being a better choice than BuckyCap because Mackie actually has charisma unlike Stan.

Is it crazy to say that it's true that the MCU franchise isn't dead and that Marvel still has viable use as a whole (like Spider-Man or not, there's still clear affection for Doctor Strange, Black Panther, Guardians and probably OGs like Thor and Hulk - they also have X-Men and F4 in the roster) while it's still be possible to course correct if the GA really likes the majority of the rest of the slate AND that the MCU burned a lot of goodwill these past few years (Quantumania is kind of comparable to the MCU’s JL and The Marvels is about to have drop similar to or more harsh than Shazam 2) and is quite possible if the next few movies don't hit (like if Deadpool, F4 and Kang don't hit - ie Quantumania/Eternals like reception), we could be facing a harder reboot? Is there no room for a middle ground?

Wish and Wonka seem like the best breakout choices. The latter has good awareness and trailer views as well as a wide open slate for Christmas though a press tour would skyrocket it, and the former turned it around with an 11th hour marketing campaign promoting the music - all it needs is good reviews and good audience reception, which if it doesn't isn't anyone's fault but the movie. Both if they get good reception, should be within 200m domestic, the latter maybe moreso 350m. Also think Migration, Aquaman and Songbirds can breakout as the former has Illumination which has usurped Disney as family film powerhouse, the middle is the first dude skewing in months and if it's decent can drum up decent business and the latter if as good as test screenings are saying, with The Marvels looking to die a last minute press tour could get it to 60m or even 70m OW. I thought Trolls had the juice at one point but it's not seeming to catch on as much as I thought.

@SLAM! Is it still possible to do a vote on a final deadline as we don't have enough films for a full game year.

Honestly if it weren't for Peacock, think FNAF would be an easy 100m opener. Knew it would open big but Peacock would eat a bit into it. Taking my younger cousin to see it tomorrow. As for quality, I'm excited for it as never was expecting a good movie on FNAF but rather the fun would be from the experience. Video game movies are now the new Disney nostalgic remakes in that they have two bases to cater to fans and kids. Do those things and be relevant you succeed, being a good movie will always come second.

This Wish is going to hit 1M views on Youtube tomorrow as well as 1M listens on Spotify. We likely won't see immediate traction for a song until closer to or just after release. Either way, that's pretty good traction.

Pretty sure the reason why it's not Thanksgiving 2024 is because that's Zootopia 2, and if Deadpool 3 moves. The animated sequels are all they got left.

Maybe Ninja Turtles? Don't care for the comparison as I suspect Turtles to be more frontloaded but it has Tuesday previews. If Strange World or Encanto comparisons were around, those would be good.

Got a feeling those Loki guys will be sticking with Feige for a while.

I think Discount Tuesday doesn't really matter much for the Thanskgiving openers especially when both Encanto and SW benefited from it. Same for stuff like Ralph 2.

True but even then multiplier should be strong for the five day. Encanto and SW did around 25x the Tuesday previews for the five days, and even accounting for earlier showtimes think 20-23x is still fair game. Wednesday also seems healthily above Elemental’s Friday. I feel confident if it keeps the momentum against Elemental, while I'm not sure on the numbers Shawn said, I think a 35-45m three day can easily happen with the pace it's at now.

That's pretty solid for original animation. Isn’t this well above Elemental at the same point in time? On May 21st, Elemental did these ticket numbers Elemental MTC1 Previews - 2859/301719 44379.23 2109 shows +219 Friday - 2485/479191 36472.47 3214 shows +125

I pretty sure Zootopia 2 is 2024, as apparently they were test screenings. Feel like that isn't moving primarily because they need it otherwise even with Elio needing more voice work, they would likely need it to have another sure firebet if and when Deadpool 3 is bumped to 2025.

Fuck Bob Iger