YM!

Not sure even with good WOM if Frozen level legs are feasible. It’ll have reasonable family competition in Wonka and Migration.

This also leaked on LinkedIn lol.

True. Tbh the art style reminded me a bit like Nimona when I first saw trailers but it looked better on my TV. Hoping that’s the same for Wish. The main concern as it is right now is if the new trailer built interest and awareness amongst the target demographic.

I get the strike part for the promo tour, can also sell itself as big movie event since Barbenheimer (I mean Eras will be far bigger but yknow what I mean), but that idea of being closer to holidays never pans out as I doubt it’ll get space between Wonka/Aquaman/Migration and Wish will be the choice to boost from Disney for a screen. I’d rather have a 11/3 opening, 50% second weekend vs slightly inflated OW and then a 60%+ drop the next weekend. Iirc Ragnarok had slightly better legs than Wakanda, no?

Lame humor aside, this looks like it has some potential. Really like how This Wish is being the main song to sell, perhaps on the 15th they release it and maybe one more in hopes one makes Let It Go/How Far I’ll Go level buzz. Looking forward to the duality and performances of DeBose’s Asha and Pine’s King Magnificeno. Can’t really give box office predictions now but I can see it opening similar to The Good Dinosaur for the 3 day/5 day (35/55m) and then if word of mouth is good as I think Trolls will eat into it some, maybe having decent legs for most of December to around 160-180m. Wonka and Migration are the only things making me leery about a supremely leggy Elemental/Frozen run.

In fairness, there’s a lot of similarities to Mario and the majority of the Disney Renaissance remakes. It didn’t have to be good, but rather just appeal to nostalgia.

Tbh a lot of Disney’s current problems are because of Iger.

Hello darkness my old friend

Feel DM4 is more likely to be pushed back over KFP4.

Not really. Robbins states that after Elemental and Lightyear’s performance, only IP gets theatrical from their animation arms.

Guessing that Wish final trailer/on sale trailer will debut with Encanto/Once Upon a Studio night

This is cool and I’d be salivating for sets of Gotham, Metropolis and Hall of Justice being akin to the Harry Potter sets but it’s fucking odd the studio can afford an expansion that’ll likely be tens of millions yet unable to pay their fucking actors and writers especially under the argument they can’t afford it.

@CJohn

If they kill the Aquababy - best CBM of the year.

That may be true which I can see (that trailer was definitely sitting there for a minute (also think the theory about the suits knowing Brand being an offender and groomer ahead of time probably led to the Plus idea, as I got a feeling that July article was actually written in June)) but the timing of the trailer as the trailer was unlisted today about a week before Paw Patrol’s release. Soren also said on Instagram he had news about the project. I think also Paramount might not have a lot of its 2024 slate ready with the strikes going on. Bob Marley and Quiet Place are the only live action movies ready to go. IF seems likely to still make it, albeit pushed some into the later half of 2024. Transformers One is still likely but I can see it being pushed slightly to make more space between itself and Beasts or if the strike prevents voice acting and they went through a last minute story change. There’s no way MI8 is ready for next year, same for Gladiator 2 and Sonic 3 if the strikes continue as long as they are. Boardwalk and Mean Girls The Musical, though not as big as the latter 3, could act as some placeholders so they still have a slate next year in case one or two movies can’t make it.

Theatrical overseas in AUS/NZ I guess. They dropped a new trailer for I assume Paw Patrol but with Russell Brand in it, as a main role I doubt it happens now.

Think Deadpool 3 and Joker 2 could do it. Both need to be great though.

Disney just sucks at marketing recently. Like apart from Avatar, there hasn't really been a strong campaign. The marketing guy seems to sell everything like a Marvel/SW movie in that hoping the brand is enough.

Because the “woke” Barbie movie died at the box office this year, right?

Think the floor for this is Quantumania numbers ~475m ww if reviews suck, WOM mediocre - the usual. Feel like there's enough Marvel fans to get it over that hump. That said think the 11/10 slot and Veteran’s Day weekend spot Disney wants for Marvel movies going forward is fucking stupid. Open 11/3 or first week of November and get an extra week of PLF along with a softer drop is far better than an extra 5-10m OW at best.

They also said Dune 2 would've just done $50m OW.

I follow ERCBoxoffice on Twitter but don't recall him saying anything about Marvels. Do you mind sharing your source?

My god, Black Manta is going to kill the Aquababy. Let's GOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!