YM!

Sigh. So Deadpool is going to be another multiverse movie huh.

It also helps Wish and Elio coming up. Though the budget will make it a money loser, 150/400 domestic/worldwide is pretty good for original animation and helps retrain the family audience which migrated to the Plus. If those two have stronger reception, I think both can be hits and help both the WDAS and Pixar brands.

Tbh I think Lightyear and Strange World’s problems were more so that both sucked and felt like copies of the usual formula rather than minimal LGBT representation that got a media spread. Disney has been doing the first gay character for years now, since like Beauty and the Beast and that did 1.2B, and even on the less discourse side and while it didn’t have LGBTQ representation was still scrutinized by the right Captain Marvel did 1.1B. Barbie is looking to be one of the biggest films of the year and is also getting shitted on by the right.

Remember how the alt-right attacked the shit out of Mario for months because of (checks notes) rainbow road and Peach wearing pants and girlbossing, only to immediately 180 after it was clearly obvious it was a hit.

And I’m not saying it’s not lackluster. Dude my quote even says this year sucked, the fact that other studios have a sizable library of mid budget hits which even though aren’t reaching the same hits pre-pandemic are still great to have, and the box office is mediocre. Which you would’ve gotten those points, if you had read my post. Apart from Bailey, I could give a rat’s ass about TLM. Fast X, Transformers, Dungeons, Flash those are movies are also in the same lackluster boat as Mermaid, Elemental and Indy with about the same if not lesser quality due to big budgets and still recovering box office. So far, we only have 11 films that have hit 100m domestic iirc. The only successful mega-blockbusters this year are Mario, Guardians and Across (which according to the one animation article is more so 150m than 100m). My point is while box office is obviously lackluster, the problem as a whole comes down to budget in regards to todays climate, an issue which we may not see correct until later along the lines. And even then while not good and still yes dare I say bad, it’s not the end of the world.

From the same article: “More than its competitors, Disney can withstand some of its movies functioning as loss leaders. In addition to racking up ticket sales, the studio’s films are designed to boost interest in toys and theme parks. So although “The Little Mermaid” barely floated past the $500 million mark, the return of Ariel is helping to sell themed Legos, backpacks, dolls, bedding and nail polish. The same goes for underperforming Marvel adventures like “Ant-Man,” which brings an influx of interest to Avengers Campus, a Marvel Cinematic Universe–themed area at the Disney California Adventure park. “They may not make it at the box office, but Disney will make up for it in merchandise sales and the longevity of the property,” says Bock. “That’s a lot different than Paramount or Sony, who needs to make all their money back at the box office.” Figured you could’ve have enough reading comprehension to read the article in full, huh. Like by no means is Disney having a good year (and tbh the tentpole all-time every-time strategy is starting to clash with the Plus eating into it) but in fairness, apart from Guardians, most 200m budgeted tentpoles are struggling currently. Mission and maybe Dune should be the big rebounds but I think the issue as a whole is it’s getting harder for the 200m tentpole unless it’s exceptionally good and/or longer streaming windows.

Maybe Sohn’s, who iirc is Korean, themes he delivered in Elemental is really resonating with the audience.

Mid vs mid

Shrek and Chicken Run.

It’s very very hard for animation to do 70/30 males to females (or the reverse tbh) without adults outside the family demographic showing out in full force. I agree Luca would skew way younger than Mario and Across but it would not be enough for that split.

Do you know how rare it is to get a near 5x multiple in summer for animation? There’s only been two examples in the past 23 years.

Mario skewed 60 male/40 female OW by the way. By no means am I implying Luca would be as big as Mario but your argument feels like a lot of ridiculous hyperbole.

So by that logic, if Luca was too boy-skewing, the SpiderVerse movies or Mario movies or shit even Sonic movies wouldn’t do well. I do think Turning Red may have played more mature than the usual Pixar but not something that’s be too off putting for families. Right now it’s a lot of maybe or maybe not because none of the three Plus Pixar had theatrical but I think all would’ve at least outdone Elemental based on reception.

I mean just because it’s more female skewing doesn’t mean kids wouldn’t dig it. Otherwise no Disney Princess movie would be a big hit. It was one of the most watched movies on the plus, second to Encanto. Think it’d at least match Bad Guys WOM.

Tbh I doubt Tigers Apprentice won’t get Batgirl/Under the Boardwalk (the latter is finished but has no release date). It wasn’t even mentioned at CinemaCon or Annecy this year.

Tbh I think Soul does a 100/300m run. Can see adults digging it but not doing as hot with kids.

I think IO2 has a lower ceiling than those 3. Personally expecting within the range of Monsters University. Think that a sequel not on par with the first can’t coast on nostalgia to help it. Will still do well enough though. My only concern right now for Elio is release date. Beyond is moving sure but I don’t care about legacy or losing the spot, move it up a week or have KFP4 move back a week. Give it some breathing room.

Tbh if Elemental is looking at 140-150m, I think Soul would’ve done 300m, Luca around 200m and Turning Red within the 250m range.

I mean apart from Lightyear, the 2020s stuff has at least been pretty positive.

Ideally I’d like more space between Elio and Panda if the OW pans out to not be stellar. Either KFP4 moves back a week or Elio up a week.

400m would also make it on par with Sing 2, and only being behind Mario, Across, Minions and Puss, as fifth biggest post pandemic animation.

It is on track to top Nemo for the best summer legs for a Pixar movie and perhaps 2nd best overall for a Pixar movie.

Not a world shattering hold for Elemental but considering competition from Gillman and screen loss, it’s still a good hold. If it follows Pixar’s recent June openers, 10.5-11.5M third weekend.

Mario?

Don’t recall Verbinski ever having an DC joint, he got close to making Gambit though. That said I doubt any of the four he recommended really want to do an MCU or DCU joint or Elseworld joint despite the former doing stuff with SpiderVerse. A Lord/Miller MCU joint would be improbable based on their style alone.