YM!

I’ll reiterate my point in case it wasn’t obvious. Disney being in a bad period doesn’t mean the brand is permanently doomed as the studio has crawled out of worse but the bad period is still a bad period. There’s still things it can do to course correct this year with its last few tentpoles and next, but it’s fair to have skepticism on some of the products.

Unless you’re Gillman (which Comcast send to die to the point where a 14-year-old did a better job at marketing it on Twitter), Comcast knows how to market animation, especially sequels. Though the second being DTV is a factor think Trolls will likely have an effective enough campaign, it’s not good for either when another 100m domestic animation opens five days before yours and the fact of the past November Disney’s being on the plus at the same time. Disney needs to pull all the stops for Wish marketing, sell the story and music, maybe a few EA screenings the week before to build family WOM, rave reviews. It’s possible especially considering how loved the Frozen films are but not something I feel confident betting on currently.

I don’t think they will sell assets. More layoffs yes but this year from a theatrical standpoint has been horrible for Disney outside of Guardians. TLM should be profitable due to merchandise but not the hit hoped for and though it seems Elemental can leg itself to a respectable total and give both animation departments some heat of their backs and can start bringing back theatrical good will for both, the 200m budget is steep whereas 400m may not cut it. Marvels and Wish are all that’s left. For the former, you could tell me 450m or 850m and neither would surprise me, and for the latter with competition from Trolls 3 and a busy November - it would need a strong marketing campaign in addition to great reviews. Otherwise whatever Elemental does is in the ballpark for my range. Think Disney just need longer plus windows even if it harms the plus briefly (~6 months) and a new marketing campaign leader because apart from Marvel and Avatar, this guy has forgotten how to sell everything else. Can see a few 20th Century direct to streaming stuff trying theatrical as more mid budget things could help profitability.

Peak incoming

God, the press tour is the thing I'm excited most about this film.

Excel doesn't believe in a DC film?! That means the film is now locked to be a hit.

The final cast for Green Lantern Corps: Evolution has been revealed: Sterling K. Brown as John Stewart Sam Heughan as Hal Jordan Joaquin Phoenix as Thaal Sinestro Alison Brie as Carol Ferris **Kevin Michael Richardson as Kilowog Kelly Marie Tran as Ni’in Naomi Scott as Arisia Rrab **H. Jon Benjamin as Ch’p Ricky Whittle as Salaak **Harrison Ford as Vicio *Vanessa Kirby as Mabi **Patrick Stewart as Ganthet **Nicole Kidman as Sayd with Tony Todd as the voice of Parallax and Octavia Spencer as the voice of Ion (** indicates a voice performance, - all other aliens are done with a mix of practical make up, or * indicates a motion capture performance) A logline has also dropped: “After the events of Green Lantern Corps: Home, ruler of Korugar and former Green Lantern, Sinestro (Joaquin Phoenix) has been building his Yellow Lantern army with the intent to rule the universe under his image. But first, he must convince his Green Lantern brethren to see the errors of their ways and destroy the Guardians, partnering with the primordial entity of fear Parallax (Tony Todd) to wage war on the Green Lantern Corps. With their Corps diminished and in hiding, most of the Guardians wiped out, and their battery running low, veteran Green Lantern John Stewart (Sterling K. Brown) recruits a disheveled Hal Jordan (Sam Heughan), drill sergeant Kilowag (Kevin Michael Richardson), Earth scientist Carol Ferris (Alison Brie), and Arisia Rrab (Naomi Scott) on a will-testing odyssey across the cosmos to find the entity of willpower Ion to stop Parallax’s ambitions of consuming the universe. However, if they want to find Ion, the Green Lanterns must not only face their inner fears but what it means to be a Green Lantern.” Green Lantern Corps: Evolution hits theaters December 18th, Y10.

God I wish the Watts movies would focus less on the Iron Man relationship and the MCU and more on the characters in Peter’s world. Ned and MJ feel like props half the time. At least the Raimi films gave Peter’s squad arcs.

Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures, Spirited) has joined the cast of Green Lantern Corps: Evolution as the voice of Ion, the green energy entity of willpower. Ion is meant to be a counterpart to Parallax (Tony Todd), who is stated to be one of the main antagonists of the movie. The film is still opening December 18th, Y10 as the film is in the middle of production.

Is that decent for The Flash?

Pixar didn’t produce Monsters at Work, Disney Television Animation did. The new rumored Inside Out series is being produced by Pixar.

I think some of it iirc comes from bonuses and contracts too as IIRC are more similar to live action with writers and animators getting bonuses for milestones.

Yeah, no originals, is a stretch at absolute worse, but I can see Pixar and WDAS being tempted with book or game adaptation by suits or even more like last decade where there was just four originals I can see again. I agree a merger or shutdown will not happen.

Tbh I think Wish is a good determinator on this theory for Disney. It’s a big Disney Princess musical with 100th anniversary buzz with the creators of Frozen and Tarzan behind it and with the WDAS brand being arguably stronger than Pixar. If that does the same as Elemental and Lightyear with strong reception, then it’s over.

I mean, unless everything is perfect, I have little faith in it or Wish as things currently stand even with great reception unless marketing is surprisingly effective and strong, and Disney actually put their money where their mouth is on extended the theatrical window like by 4-6 months. As competitors for both are strong and both brands are at their lowest since the 2000s. If you gave me a number for both, I’d say 100-150m domestic as it stands now unless competition moves, long 4-6 windows for family films regardless of profitable, reception is aces and marketing is perfect, then the ballpark of 180-230m is about right. Elemental should have just enough juice to get to 100m domestic and has a shot at biggest Disney since the pandemic worldwide but the performance is still very bad to say the least especially because it made the brand of Pixar look weaker and the 200m budget. This obviously doesn’t mean if these two fail Pixar or WDAS will get merged or closed down permanently but it means budget cuts that will not only effect animation but livelihood of the workers (iirc only Pixar and WDAS give bonuses to animation writers and crew of landmarks are made), more creative interference from executives and less of the director driven vibe Docter has be going for, outsourcing animation overseas for originals, and probably no more new IP after 2026 for the next decade or so.

Tbh I think Disney should try putting in early access/family screenings for their originals. It’s a strategy that Universal has been doing for their holiday animations (the Sing movies, Puss 2, and probably Migration) that seems to work. Who cares about spoilers, you need good WOM when your divisions are struggling. Something like 1-2 weeks before release. Don’t like the kickoff March date tbh, and they could move it up a week or if bold try tackling Madame Web. I do think Elemental had the right amount of marketing, it just didn’t look good and reviews were too mediocre (by Pixar or WDAS standards) to move the needle. Think for Wish and Elio, at the risk of looking cheesy, sell the emotions, story and music with lame gags and puns being last (unless your movie is like TENG level funny.)

Is it plausible they didn't update yet. Disney takes it's time for actual estimates.

There's been two popular TV shows since Nick got the property in 2010.

I think tbh Elemental can still do 300m. Not all the territories are open, in fact in opens away from The Flash in Europe to like early to mid audience and wom seems good enough for it.

A B CinemaScore?! Yikes. May perform just like Green Lantern did like @Eevin suggested.

Perhaps they really only know how to sell the sequels. Gillman was left to die due to lack of faith in Comcast as having the first trailer three months from release is awful and indicates lack if faith. It's like Captain Underpants in 2017 but much worse.

I wasn't aware. My apologies. I didn't know he was Argentinian

Muschetti is a white man directing tentpoles in Hollywood. Of course he will get a second chance.

Yeah rooting for it to do well too. I want original animation to do well in general. It's sad Dreamworks newest original got sent to Netflix the other day.