YM!

I’d like the Watts stuff more if the world around Spider-Man was more developed and less about his relationship with Tony Stark especially with what the Russos put in IW/EG had to restart the development into a six film arc when most Spider-Man do it in one film. I’d also like much more of the coming of age stuff, which was very underwhelming and more friendly neighborhood stuff.

ITSV - 5/5 ATSV - 4.5/5 SM2 SM - 4/5 NWH - 3.5/5 Venom 2 SM3 - 3/5 HC Venom TASM - 2.5/5 FFH - 2/5 TASM2 - 1.5/5

Tbh I would give Ratchet and Clank another go and Sly Cooper a try. Like I don’t think they do gangbusters but could do 100m+ domestic.

Tbh now would be the perfect time for Sony Animation to get back in the game of theatrical animation with how big Across and Beyond will be. I’d consider putting Mark Dindal’s Garfield under the label even though they didn’t produce it as I imagine The Emperor’s New Groove team will make a funny movie and could do Peanuts movie numbers. They have a lot of potential hits in the King Tut movie, to Spider-Women team up, to some of the other originals they have cooked, and they can be most likely to get adult animation into the theatrical door as the R-rated Fixed is their next feature.

The first rizz-less Spider-Man? Lmao Hailee is so done with him in that interview.

I never felt more pain at a theater when some 13 year old kid shouted SIMP at Miles during the SpiderVerse trailer for Sonic 2. I sympathize with that.

It's wild how peak this is. When was the last time two peak CBMs were released back to back.

Kevin Feige and Harrison Ford (2023, colorized):

Guessing the animated Spider-Woman movie is a 2026/27 film for Sony Animation. Glad to see Miles getting the love he deserves. Dude is probably the most popular new comic book character of the 2000s, bar none.

Little Shop of Horrors

I don’t think Batman 2 gets to 200m OW even with the first being well recieved. Thinking more like 150-175m. Avatar 3 I think is a possibility but I’m more in the 150m-180m range for it. Kang Dynasty could do it because the Avengers name is still a sell but depends on the GA reception of the rest of the movies. A Mario 2 could do it but I think there’s more room for it to fall than grow. If Disney gets their shit together and puts in 6-month windows for their family movies like Netflix and Sony are doing, I think a legacy Pixar sequel like Monsters Inc 2 or Finding Marlin or Incredibles 3 can do it. Frozen III is also an option but again Disney needs to put in long ass windows. Depending on how big Across opens, I can see Beyond challenging 200m OW.

Almost all of your predictions came true.

Fan screenings could work/help too.

I’m at 25/85. Slightly lesser legs than Super Pets.

I hope they move Elio to February 9th. It’s the week before Presidents Day. No big animation since Migration and a month before KFP4, and there’s nothing in February (like is anyone expecting Madame Web to do good?), and you wouldn’t have to share marketing attention with Snow White. Pixar simply isn’t big enough to open an original tentpole in competitive months. Open that there and then in 2026 when Elio succeeds assuming Molina cooks you can take back March.

Though domestically great, the numbers for TLM are underwhelming. I think it’d do about the same if Ariel were white but the DOM/OS turned around, mainly due to the shifting theatrical demographics in the US and TLM wouldn’t have had as big buzz here. I do think there is an underindexing problem in tracking with Disney but I’m starting to think that’s more due to the Disney Plus and less off right wing outrage or quality. Families more or less know they can wait it out a few months if their kids really want it and with the Plus being second biggest streamer that’s taking away a lot from walkups, and in the few cases of some of the right wing who turned their backs on Disney likely still have Disney Plus for their kids or themselves whilst putting on a bravado of not supporting Disney theatrically. Not sure if Disney can ever shake the Plus thing. Like if they had a few mid-budget films they’d weather it out a bit more, but the only reliable franchise they have left is Avatar. WDAS/Pixar are dead apart from sequels, Marvel is running out of juice (Deadpool is a hit sure but I’m doubting CA4 or Thunderbolts does more than 450m WW, and maybe 550-600m for Marvels), and they have no more remakes to exploit as Stitch is going to the Plus and live action Moana seems less lucrative than Moana 2. A solution could be just putting in far longer periods like a six month window from theatrical to the plus like Sony does with Netflix or Paramount did with TGM but I think the executives and Iger’s greed will be too late to realize it until it’s too late.

I mean if they’re not at the animation phase yet, just reuse assets and don’t use any new techniques for a while to keep budget down like WDAS or move originals to safer spots like February or late July or even September to build the brand back up. Outsourcing also works with the artists doing story work like writing, storyboarding, character design in the US and doing the CG work overseas for the originals and keeping the other artists for shows and sequels’ animation at Emeryville. Name one person who wants to see Pixar fail. What’s happening now as a fan is saddening. Just because things are bad, is by no means a want for Pixar to fail. It would be heartbreaking if Pixar fell apart and even with the series of underperformance, I still doubt that Pixar would shutter.

I think Elio could do well on like second week of February, with rave reviews and the first big kids film, could run to 200m. Tbh though I think WDAS is in slightly better shape, depending on how Wish does, they could switch again. WDAS film being the summer slot and the Pixar film being in the Thanksgiving or early November slot.

I like the cast for the four and finally a Jewish Ben but the fact the only POC of the four will be a CGI pile of rocks is sad.

There’s slight hope for Elio as the Coco co-director is helming it, as well as Shi and Cassarosa’s next film. They just need different spots. Summer is too competitive for Pixar anymore outside of sequels. February can work or even September if they want to try it.

100m three day is dead. Seems that the Disney family arm is underindexing. A 95m+/115m+ four day is still good but still noteworthy of a difference.

Edited

Tbh I think WDAS/Pixar could consider doing adaptations of books or games, or maybe try more action/adventure movies.

Outsourcing. I think the 2026 films assuming they’re originals are safe but everything else no.

Thing that makes me most sad is the new talent likely won’t get a chance to make their originals. Shi and Cassarosa sure because they proved themselves somewhat but I’m going to be heartbroken if we don’t get Sullivan or Corbin’s originals because Elemental and Lightyear bombing.