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YM!

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Everything posted by YM!

  1. It’ll be at least around $270M Thanksgiving.
  2. Everyone in the GA like MCU movies. The difference is to tell how much they are liked. That’s why others aren’t predicting strong legs. CW was loved and it has MCU’s worst legs. MCU sequels outside of GV2 and TWS don’t have good legs.
  3. Still I think it’ll be a bit on the 2.45x-2.55x side on legs. Homecoming even though with Iron Man and that frontloaded OW was a origin story in the summer. GV2 was a rare well liked sequel that got the GA interested. Every other MCU sequel not named TWS or GV2 had sub 2.5x legs.
  4. Did a quick update for Wonder but it’s overtook The Star, 1 away from where both DH2 has today and almost close to OE.
  5. I’m waiting until Friday for my Coco report due to timing and I can have two family film comparison at the same point in time for better reference (DM3 and Star). I might do Wonder tomorrow.
  6. I don’t know why Disney sticks to that Memorial Day spot. It doesn’t work for them.
  7. Think it’s safe to say if Solo stays in Summer it’ll go sub $400M.
  8. I can see decent business as option B for families with Black Panther. Obviously it won’t hit LB or SOOW numbers but I can see it crossing $100M (say Hop numbers).
  9. I can see that too but 2018 both before and in the summer looks weak for animation. If it’s good I can see a breakout.
  10. 1.) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: $190M/$500M 2.) Incredibles 2: $140M/$470M 3.) Infinity War: $210M/$450M 4.) Grinch: $100M/$420M 5.) Aquaman: $110M/$365M 6.) Black Panther: $115M/$345M 7.) Han Solo: $135M/$340M 8.) Ready Player One: $100M/$310M 9.) Deadpool 2: $125M/$305M 10.) Mary Poppins Returns: $55M/$275M 11.) Wrinkle In Time: $80M/$230M 12.) Ant Man and The Wasp: $85M/$220M 13.) Fantastic Beasts 2: $80M/$210M 14.) Ralph 2: $45M/$200M 15.) Mission Impossible 6: $60M/$190M 16.) The New Mutants: $65M/$180M 17.) Halloween: $50M/$175M 18.) Rampage: $55M/$170M 19.) Hotel Transylvania 3: $50M/$170M 20.) Venom: $60M/$160M (change of heart) 21.) Nutcracker: $55M/$150M 22.) Animated Spider-Man: $35M/$135M 23.) Creed 2: $45M/$130M 24.) The Nun: $45M/$130M 25.) Oceans Eight: $40M/$130M 26.) Fifty Shades Freed: $50M/$125M 27.) First Man: $25M/$125M 28.) Dark Phoenix: $50M/$125M 29.) Mamma Mia 2: $40M/$125M 30.) Peter Rabbit: $35M/$120M 31.) Paddington 2: $40M (four day)/$115M 32.) Alita: Battle Angel: $40M/$115M 33.) Teen Titans Go!: $35M/$105M 34.) Bumblebee: $25M/$100M 35.) Proud Mary: $35M/$100M 36.) Red Sparrow: $30M/$100M 37.) The Predator: $40M/$100M 38.) Backseat: $30M/$100M 39.) Tully: $25M/$100M
  11. Grinch is more likely double Ralph 2 than get beaten by it.
  12. Part A: 1. Will Daddy's Home Open to more than $17.5M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Daddy's Home Open to more than $22.5M? 2000 No 3. Will Orient Express Open to more than $17.5M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Orient Express Open to more than $22.5M? 4000 Yes 5. Will the two highest new openers combine to more than 42M? 5000 No 6. Will Thor drop less than 59%? 1000 Yes 7. Will Bad Mom's drop less than 54%? 2000 No 8. Will Blade Runner stay above Thank you for your service? 3000 Yes 9. Will Jigsaw made more than $3M for the weekend? 4000 No 10. Will Geostorm have a higher weekend percentage drop than Only the Brave? 5000 Yes 11. Will Three Billboards have a PTA above $22,500? 1000 Yes 12. Will The Foreigner have a PTA above $850? 2000 Yes 13. Will Madea's PTA stay about $1500? 3000 No 14. Will Happy Death Day decrease more than 38% on Sunday? 4000 Yes 15. Will Mel Gibson out toxic Johnny Depp this Weekend or vice versa? 5000 Yes Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Daddy's Home 2 make for its 3 day OW? $18M 2. What will Orient Express's Sunday gross be? $5.8M 3. What will three Billboard's PTA be for the Weekend? $107,569 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Murder on The Orient Express 4. Bad Moms Christmas 6. Boo 2 9. Blade Runner 2049 11. Thank You for Your Service 12. Lady Bird Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000
  13. Something to take my mind off of the NYG sucking ass.
  14. Will his weapon be a can of mace and does he plot to mace GameStop employees for something they had no control over?
  15. I want a Chris Chan mention or cameo in said movie.
  16. Daddy’s Home 2 North Shore Cinema 11/9/17 (2 days before previews, 3 before release) Mequon, WI 5:00 - 4/139 6:30 - 0/98 7:30 - 11/139 9:00 - 0/98 10:00 - 2/139 Running about 35% of Baby Driver at the same time. Not good. Murder On The Orient Express North Shore Cinema 11/9/17 (2 days before previews, 3 before release) Mequon, WI 7:00 - 14/116 8:00 - 1/68 10:00 - 4/116 10:45 - 1/68 Running about 41% of Dunkirk. Seems solid for a $20M+ OW.
  17. We are definitely getting an Incredibles 2 Trailer this month and maybe Infinity War.
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