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She is.

I mean even though I think Beasts will likely underperform, it's taking the PLFs and IMAX from it on weekend 2 and with the 2:00 PM previews, I think it'll likely have a 50% drop. The Flash and Elemental also eat into two of it's main demographics even if the latter underperform. Think it'll have better legs than most CBMs but I think Incredibles 2 is the best comparison for it legs-wise as the peak (606/180 = 3.37, thinking 100-140m OW for Across with a range of 2.85-3.4x for the legs).

I graduated college today.

Yeah there's intense competition for sure but Elemental wasn't likely to have strong presales in the first place. Original animation tends to be very backloaded until the final week/OW.

I think you're better off with comparisons like Encanto or Bad Guys tbh. Mainly because it's an original animation. Even with Pixar name, there won't be a big rush.

The Bodyguard (1992 film)

It's imperative Elemental does well though same for Wish. Studios are no longer afraid to counter program or bully the movies away. DWA has two big sequels in Kung Fu Panda and Trolls opening closely against Wish and Elio. Wicked opens the same day as Disney’s Thanksgiving 2024 movie which could be a musical. On top of that, more movies are opening ok the same day. They should really consider other spots just in case because they're at a point where the brand name isn't enough.

This wouldn't be the end but I got a feeling if Elemental and Wish doesn't do well, we will have a similar dark ages like the 2000s era for Disney Animation with few great successes. It won't be as bad as they still got sequels that have a solid baseline. I do think if both underperform, it won't be the end of originals but we will be getting more sequels this decade and maybe absolute worse a few films that try to trend chase. However, I doubt either studio will be messed with creatively.

The live action stigma still exists and on top of that TLM has a combo of buzz and nostalgia to give it a solid baseline. Not to mention Elemental is facing the most dangerous competition for any Pixar movie. Sometimes it takes just one or a few movies to ruin a legacy, ask the DCEU or Pirates or Transformers movies or to a lesser extent Marvel currently.

It's tracking at 28-38m OW. I agree the latter part is hyperbole but it's opening two weeks after 2 100m+ OW family films as well as opening against another 100m opener with family appeal, and facing the diminished enthusiasm theatrical Disney animation has been facing. You're not bouncing back without stellar reviews. To not see the warning signs at this point, is blind fanboyism.

Strong tracking for The Flash. Was expecting a mini breakout for it as nostalgia sells. Decent tracking for Elemental as that's about 30-40m OW which is more or less what I was expecting. Hopefully reviews boost it up a but more.

@cayommagazine Production is in the process for Matt Damon and Ben Affleck’s Hanna Barbera biopic; Yabba-Dabba-Doo!. A plot summary and full cast reveal will be shown at the end of the month when production is expected to end. The film will center around the rise and creation of the Hanna-Barbera animation studio in the 1960s-70s, as the two artists strive to both run one of the biggest brands in Hollywood animation and how that affected the industry as a whole. James Mangold (Runaway Train, Logan) will produce the film rather than direct it as Ben Affleck (Argo, Air) has stepped up to the role of director. Yabba-Dabba-Doo! will be distributed under the Infinite Studios banner at Endless Entertainment and opens November 20th, just five days before Endless Animation’s family musical Allegra set in the 1950s but Endless Entertainment owner and head Xavier B. Irving think both will co-exist just fine due to the two different demographics. Irving thinks the combination of Green Lantern Corps: Evolution, Allegra and Yabba-Dabba-Doo! will prove fruitful for Endless’ Holiday Y10 lineup.

In fairness to Sohn, TGD was tossed around like a frisbee between the directors and brain trust having to takeover.

Elemental is debuting at the Cannes and I think it can ride a wave of momentum if the buzz is good. Even with a 25m opening, and the damage the plus has done, as long as it's tolerable it'll be fine. I still buy Indy being bigger than Flash because of the nostalgia for the former and while I think Flash will have solid wom and reviews, I think Indy is a far bigger brand. Especially when I think Flash is seeming more and more like it'll get the short end of the stick in the May-June CBM tentpole trifecta. What you're predicting is similar legs than Lightyear and Strange World which both had horrible WOM. I just can't see that even if Gillman does better than expected. The summer slate and weekdays should at least get it to a 3x so long as it's tolerable. I still think ~25m is probably what Gillman’s maximum for the five day based on the metrics we know currently, ~25m OW is imho the bare minimum for Elemental.

Now this is just being silly. Dreamworks may be on a comeback but apart from Puss, they haven't had a 100m domestic hit. Bad Guys got close thanks to a barren pre-Lightyear stretch and good WOM and a damn strong marketing campaign. Gillman has had one trailer and it wasn't even one of Mario’s attachment in addition to having far less awareness than Elemental and arguably stronger competition facing Indy. There's a better chance Elemental domestic outdoes Gillman worldwide. Now Migration being the biggest animated original is something I can see because Illumination took over as the big animation brand this decade, Dreamworks still isn't there yet.

Not to the same uniform degree and theater data was rare apart from a few select users but I do recall Coco didn't sell so hot. Tbh the best comparison for Elemental are Super Pets and Bad Guys. Edit: Deep Wang who had theater data regularly gave presale updates and was unsure about Coco until the week of opening.

I remember Coco having shit presales and everyone freaking out about it.

It tied with Scarlet and Violet for the record as biggest Nintendo launch.

Also the trailers leaked on the internet lol.

30% drop in Thursday seems kind of ludicrous even with 2 PM previews.

I think Soul, Luca and Turning Red would've all done well theatrically. At least over 100m domestically each.

Switch it up every now and then. I think the tentpole every three weeks Disney wants isn't helpful to Pixar in the long term as it builds itself back up. A Pixar movie could debut Memorial Day weekend or the weekend after for instance and the remake could go anywhere and still be big. Maybe open a Marvel movie on the first weekend of November than Veterans Day to allow better sync. Elemental could've gone to June 23rd, swapped spots with Indy and Indy opens in late July, or July 28th. The concern is what happens if the bounce back is more like Disney in the 2000s/Dreamworks in the 2010s than something that can be fixed in 2-3 years. Studios have already lost the fear to counter program. I'm still feeling 30-45m OW on gut feeling, with 40m being about right but it's important Elemental does well.

Not necessarily January or September (though I think if the brand is big enough it can open anywhere) but like Elio going to February or April isn't going to hurt Disney or Pixar or make them lesser. It helps more than hurts. Ratatouille is a good example but the OW was just shy of 50m with the fourth of July weekend the next week. I don't think Elemental will have a similar OW judging on what we know so far. But if reviews are indeed stellar as this is the first time Pixar has done the Cannes outside of a Docter movie indicating their faith in quality. Do think the showtime issue will somewhat correct itself as we get closer to OW.

Tbh it may be better to partially concede than taking a blow. Studios are already lining in their spots anyway.

I think both Lightyear and Strange World being ass were the major culprits to poor legs. Poor OW, sure the plus did dent it but otherwise no. There's no big kids movie until TMNT this August, and will likely be the summer camp choice. Still think it could do 30-45m OW.