YM!

And now Disney may be fucked these next few releases as they’ve become nonevents due to training the audiences to expect movies at home. It’s going to be hard for Elemental to open well with two potential 100-150m PG openers two weeks before it.

@Alpha @Blankments @Hiccup23 @Ezen Baklattan @El Squibbonator @4815162342 @cookie @Rorschach @SLAM! @Reddroast @MCKillswitch123 @Xillix

Pixar doesn’t really have one. Maybe a MI2/Nemo 3/Incredibles 3 are a better bet than a TS5 which honestly feels cash-graby moreso than Dory or MU. The late 2000s stuff is popular but I don’t think any sequel potential is there and with Asner dead a sequel feels all types of wrong. 2010s had few originals and I think IO2 at best maxes out at Dory numbers and I am not sure how you do a Coco sequels. 2020s is in the boat of the plus having an effect and I’m not sure a sequel to any makes sense like a lot of Pixar movies, who knows maybe a 2020 original later in the line does numbers to justify a franchise.

I highly doubt KFP4 has the juice to get to 500M. Yeah, Frozen 3 and Shrek 5 are likely the best chances. Maybe Zoot2pia?

Yeah. This is kind of why I’m feeling Joker 2, The Marvels and Spider-Man 4 will drop.

Toy Story 4 is pretty great. Not as good as 2/3 but better than 1.

Disney scheduling in general sucks. You don’t need to have a stacked calendar like that, it’s going to be sink or swim for the non-mega tentpoles like Indy or Mermaid.

If I’m having to name names in order: Luca del Toro’s Pinocchio Turning Red Soul Puss 2 Encanto The Bad Guys Arlo Mitchells vs Machines Netflix Ninja Turtles Onward Vivo Sing 2 Croods 2 Minions 2 That’s at least 15 kids movies better than Mario this decade, though the last four are more or less the same quality.

I’m not an I2 fan but there’s at least 10 mainstream animated movies this decade and two Illumination films this decade that are better than Mario. If Mario was an all original work, I doubt it’d have the same momentum.

Maybe just longer phases or pushing some films around really. Not everyone needs the spot in limelight asap. Tbh, the Young Avengers angle I think they could’ve just all been introduced in a movie last phase.

Yeah Wicked is a real possibility of a breakout too. The question is how does the part one/two thing play out.

Either that or commit to the high school bit and do a full show out of that. But yeah I agree.

I do think selectiveness is a factor we’re going to see. I also think more non GA went for Guardians than most of the Phase 5 movies. Blade is a question mark especially because Marvel seems to be scared in doing horror and non-R rated things outside of Deadpool which is kind of like Family Guy in that it’s not for kids but c’mon the 10-14 boys crowd loves it. Thunderbolts faces an uphill battle because not only must it differentiate itself from Suicide Squad but all the characters but Ghost and Yuen’s character have the same “powers but not really powers set”. Can easily see it do Eternals numbers. Of the ones I feel confident in Deadpool 3 will be the next event. Cap 4 I think being a psuedo Hulk sequel is a draw and I think maybe it’ll do a little better than expected because I think young black children will be happy to see a black Cap on screen. The Marvels has a floor of 500m but ceiling is hard to determine if it’s 700m or 800m especially with a packed November as Dune 2 and Hunger Games will eat into it.

Tbh the shows should’ve been more like TV shows and a bit more like Daredevil 2015 in the MCU in that they take place but a bit more clear it’s in the MCU but separate from the main story. I think WandaVision, She-Hulk and Ms. Marvel do the best job at this tbh. Some things like Hawkeye and Falcon would’ve been better off as 2.3 hour movies as you could trim the fat. I don’t think the original content is the problem but the GA doesn’t want 10 projects a year, even six to seven a bridge too many. Sure, no one watches all and most of the shows but it adds into the fatigue because you feel like you got to watch them and with only a few making theatrical appearances it feels like you can’t tell who’s important to the grand plan from the GA perspective. Tbh apart from Thor, Moon Knight, Falcon and What IF, most of Phase 4 is good but the problem is with oversaturation, only a few were great. The blame though goes to Feige and Iger as they had that plan from the start. Think a phase should have like 3 shows total.

Considering sub 600m was a possibility a few days ago, a 750m performance is a massive win. Still a drop from 2, but considering no Russia and a weakened China, it’s solid all things considered. 700m is the win point imho. If it can do that it would be great. Not good compared to past Marvel but considering the damage Quantumania and to a lesser extent the hit and miss of Phase 4, it’s a solid result. The MCU needs great reception to bounce back, so if Secret Invasion and Loki stoke up the fans and The Marvels turns out to be fun, they should be on the right track. Thinking Phase 1-2 numbers are going to be more of the norm though which as long as stuff isn’t 200m+ is great.

Next Monday.

2024 wayyyyy too early top 10: Avatar: The Seed Bearer - 155m/630m Deadpool and Wolverine - 150m/390m Inside Out 2 - 110m/385m Despicable Me 4 - 105m/375m Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part Two - 115m/330m Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse: 105m/325m Gladiator 2 - 100m/300m Joker: Folie a Duex - 120m/280m Captain America: New World Order - 90m/240m Mufasa: The Lion King - 75m/230m If my theory is correct - Zootopia 2 in 2024: 130m five day/410m - Betting the breakout of the year is either IF or Elio at 250m

I’ll do Y14 then

Joker 2 seems like the next Wakanda Forever/The Marvels/Spider-Man 2. I think the musical aspect may be a turnoff for the main demographic at hand and in addition to that, the first hit a zeitgeist in a way that’s hard to replicate. I think upper 200s domestic and 750-800m worldwide

Domestically maybe, OS nah. Think the Avengers name still carries a 1B WW minimum.

Part of me thinks that we could see Sony switching up the slate if necessary to something like this: 2/16 - Harold and the Purple Crayon 3/27 - Ghostbusters 4 5/24, 5/31 or 6/7 - Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse if Across breaks out 7/12 - Madame Web 11/1 or Christmas (doubting Sonic 3 stays for Christmas next year) - Garfield

Going to refrain from the list but do think we’ll see some changes. A handful of films still in production this year or rated but not released will end up going here (Aquaman 2, Ghostbusters 4?, Harold and the Purple Crayon, Coyote vs Acme, Fixed, etc). Avatar 3 is winning the year no contest but number two spot can be interesting. If either Across or Dead Reckoning 1 breaks out to 300m domestic, I think part two for both could take the number two spot. Deadpool and Wolverine is a good choice though I wonder if the MCU fatigue going on will correct itself by the time it opens. I can buy Despicable Me 4 being a nostalgia requel in which Vector returns from the moon with an army and a senior Gru and Lucy, the minions, and his young adult daughters face him off. Inside Out 2 could very well be the big return for Disney/Pixar especially if TLM, Elemental and Wish turn out to be hits. Lots of room for potential breakouts too. Both Elio and IF sound like family film original smash hits. I think KFP4 has a strong chance at 200m domestic if it moves. Cap 4 should do over 200m as well but 250m+ can happen. Gladiator 2, Apes and Furiosa have potential as does Snow White, Mickey7, and Godzilla and Kong. Lion King 2 I think will have a big fall though. Joker 2 is another question is I’m not sure if the musical angle can sell. Thunderbolts and Blade with the strike I think would be better off moving to 2025 or later because those two will need quality to thrive.

It’s a blockbuster is why. They tend to have higher audiences scores in general. Because audiences for most are expecting just a fun time and grade according to so.

No but they’re nowhere near as big as Marvel. Like Warner Animation Group has IP but their quality and box office standards are lower. It’s why a bomb for WAG isn’t as big a deal for a bomb for Pixar because it’s commonplace.

@cayommagazine After Matilda and the Night Children takes home Oscar Gold; Endless Animation has announced a press release for one of the four films it has planned for Y10. As previously stated, the studio wants to alternate between 1-2 family films and 1-2 films for adult and contemporary audiences. Twenty-One is a coming-of-age comedy done with traditional hand-drawn animation. Kate Purdy (Bojack Horseman, Undone) and Molly Ostertag (The Owl House, The Witch Boy) write and direct the film with Shadi Petosky (Sandman, Danger and Eggs) co-writing. Twenty-One centers on Liza (Hunter Schafer (Euphoria, The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes)), an introverted young trans women in her junior year of college. Upon near-death experience on her 21st birthday, Liza decides to reinvent herself creating a bucket list of things she wants to accomplish before her next birthday with help from her over-enthusiac roommate Madi (Maitreyi Ramakrishnan (Turning Red, Never Had I Ever)) and former best friend Chase (Ian Alexander (Heremias, Star Trek: Discovery)) as these young adults go on a journey of self-discovery, romance and friendship. Other cast members include: Nicholas Cantu (The Gumball franchise, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem) Caleb McLaughlin (Shiverin’ Gulch, Stranger Things) Nick Offerman (Parks and Recreation, Stranges in the Town) Iain Armitage (Young Sheldon, the Can You Imagine? franchise) Ryan Potter (the American Dragon franchise, Big Hero 6) Kat Dennings (Two Broke Girls, the Marvel Cinematic Universe franchise) Auli’i Cravalho (The Last Airbender: The Boy in The Iceberg, Dear Evan Hansen, Moana) Helen Mirren (The Parvelli Reunion, the Fast and Furious franchise) The film will open September 18th, Y10 with a limited release Labor Day weekend, Y10.