YM!

Good for the writers. Hope they get what they need.

I’m iffy on 700 yet because of May/June but I’m sold on $600m+.

I didn’t know. I haven’t followed Mario’s OS numbers.

Agreed. With the pace this beast has been having, and without summer days is highly impressive. Though lack of competition or family films since Puss helped. Definitely think animation should have a nice rebound this year with likely 5 movies over 100m+ domestic, and 3 to 4 over 200m+ domestic. Depending on OS holds, I wonder if topping Lion King is possible.

Part of it is a bit but point still stands about crossover.

Wait until June. Quantumania may not be good but you need longer windows to make it uncomfortable for the GA to wait. 3 months isn’t as grueling as 4.

Still not good for either of them. Because you’d have families that would’ve gone to Trolls 3 going to Wish or KFP4 going to Elio. It decreases legs for both and minimizes OW, especially if one gets better reviews than the other. Not to mention Trolls will likely skew younger than Wish with less adult appeal.

Wish and Elio are the rebound. Assuming both KFP4 and Trolls 3 move and long windows to force families out. Thinking 45/70/200/550 for Wish and 65/250/600 for Elio.

Any PG-13 tentpole especially CBMs is a kids movie in some form due to a lot of crossover. Especially when they got to get back into full swing as the Plus took away a lot eyeballs. Thinking Elemental does 30-45M OW but with good WOM and reviews legs it to 150M DOM. If it doesn’t get lost in the shuffle with Mermaid and Indy in terms of marketing, maybe 50/200.

The Flash. You don’t open two kids movies together so close. That and it opens in close proximity to TLM, Across and Transformers (which Beasts should also underperform) which all attract kids and are consecutive weeks. Indy 2 weeks later also means Disney will likely focus on that over it.

I’m thinking some will split. Elemental is seemingly confirmed for Dolby so I think it’ll do morning and Flash afternoon/evening. If some theaters have two PLFs, they’ll each get one. Depends on what’s they are expecting to sell sometimes. I can see Mario keeping it from Evil Dead.

Though I think it’s too late for Elemental to move, and ultimately shouldn’t back down, one can argue they’ve kind of lose it to competition anyways. Studios are now refusing to back down to their spots. We got Flash opening same day as Elemental, both Trolls 3 and KFP4 refusing to move a week from a spot a Disney animation is, Wicked the same day as a untitled Disney Animation and The Fall Guy opening the same day as Elio.

I count Gillman and Indy more as July but yeah Luca/Mean Girls/Aquaman seems like a none starter but it not Strays don’t have the blockbuster potential that Across/Beasts/Elemental/Flash has. These studios really got to get over the summer stigma and spread shit out. I’d rather a more spread out summer than a stacked one where only five or so blockbusters do well and everything else underperforms. There’s no reason Mario should’ve been the only family film since Puss 2.

Who here is genuinely predicting the demise of Pixar because they don’t have high expectations for Elemental? I think Pixar has been head and shoulders above their mainstream family animation competitors in the 2020s with the exception of Pinocchio but the Plus has done a lot of damage to the brand that will take time to mend (I mean for both Illumination or Dreamworks had brands to pretty sizeable IP like Mario, Minions, Puss and Sing in addition to not have to worry about imminent streaming releases where we haven’t had a sequel outside of Lightyear which was a concept that no one really wanted) especially in a competitive June and it likely being a less of a priority for Disney to market compared to Mermaid or Indy. It and Transformers seem like the two underperformers of that month. Cars 3 result would be good for Elemental and if it can do more, great. Strong reception and legs are going to be the main hope for it. I think Wish and Elio’s concepts are likely good steps in the right direction though.

Chuds really hate Brie Larson for going “Facts not feelings” on them.

The Assassination of Bill Pope by the Coward Kevin Feige.

I agree She-Hulk wasn’t panned mainly because it was review bombed a lot but Love and Thunder did have mixed reception amongst the GA. For the record, the CinemaScore and audience reviews are in tangent with Black Adam and Shazam 2 although it did well financially.

Feel pretty good about this one’s box office if reviews are decent. Fan reaction seems solid too judging the CBM people I follow. Going to stick to my 110/265/645 prediction for now (I used a similar OS split that Phase 4-5 and CM minus China had with a Wakanda Forever drop domestically and Thor 4/Strange 2 reception) but if it sticks the landing and the other few projects succeed, I think 125/320/725 seems about right with a solid chance at 800m if domestic goes 350m-ish. The biggest roadblock is how The Hunger Games does as in the age of nostalgia, I think it has potential to surprise as well as eat into its demographics. If the good reception train keeps on trucking through NWO, I think the MCU could rebound come Thunderbolts.

Looks fun enough. CGI is a bit rough but Marvel has never had solid CGI and the November delay should help. I think it has an uphill battle of the mixed reception of the past few phases and a stacked November but if this is good, as well as if Guardians/SI/Loki are well received, I think it’ll be able to weather it. 110/265/590 w/o China/645

In fairness, I think explaining Photon’s powers is more of a hassle than Kamala and even then, the two’s inclusion in the movie is easier for GA who have not see the shows to understand versus Wanda in Multiverse of Madness’ face heel turn and children.

Because it’s a new franchise entry and not a sequel. You answered your own question.

Only BadOlCat seriously thought Dark Phoenix numbers and dude has replaced @CJohn as the lord of box office pessimism. Also, like a 600-750m gross isn’t a bomb, with the likely 200m to 250m-ish budget. Make no mistake, it’s not a good result but not a world-ender. It’s not just Guardians that is cause of concern (also slightly dude please, it’s looking at 100-120m which is good but like we were expecting 150m that’s not slight, that’s pretty big difference especially with a loved franchise.) but rather mixed reception of Phase 4 and Quantumania which has eroded a lot of trust. The fanbase will give it a decent OW. I do think with Guardians 3 likely being well received and the shows having good reception will be enough to help Marvels if it has solid reception (BW-ish reception). That said, I agree that people are saying CM wasn’t liked because they didn’t like it (it got an A CinemaScore with great audience reception and had hype from being Marvel’s first female lead film, dudes can’t let go of Brie Larson).

Ik I was too but perhaps Chadwick’s loss was too big a hurdle to clear. That’s the thing with box office, there’s a lot of variables involved.

Because the lead died, silly. How much would an Iron Man 4 do if RDJ died and Rhodey was his replacement? Or a Spider-Man 4 in which Zendaya was the lead after Tom Holland dying? Not to mention the first was kind of a zeitgeist in that of itself, it was going to drop regardless.

Yes. This Tuesday according to RPK.