exomassey
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Posts posted by exomassey
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As long as this movies fun I think it will do well. Fun is important because let’s be honest Black Widow is not the most fun superhero movie (due to its subject matter). Good reviews are important for legs and WOM.
I say that because I just realised that this film will open during the Olympics! A big sporting event like that could dampen opening weekends but I guess we’ll see.
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The UK has just had its hottest weekend of the year and is also dealing with a massive 4th wave of the delta variant, so I’m not surprised if it comes in even lower tbh.
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3 hours ago, Noctis said:
Nobody remembers any character from that movie (including Will Smith's character) aside from Harley Quinn and to a significantly lesser extent, The Joker.
Really?
Even though it wasn’t a critical success, the film was fairly successful at the box office. It made the Suicide Squad a mainstream property.
Even if you say no one remembers Will Smiths character or a popular Batman villain like Joker, you can’t deny their inclusion in the first movie was instrumental in its success along with Margot Robbie.
I’m just saying without them the new movie to win over audiences again. However it could be critical darling and become a massive breakout hit, I don’t know.
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I’m interested to know if people think the Copa America and Euros final had an effect here.
Do you guys think two big events like that will have an effect on opening weekend?
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1 hour ago, DlAMONDZ said:
They have though. Every statement I've seen from people involved are about how it's not connected to the first movie, how it's not a sequel etc
I’m talking about more in terms of the general audience. If they saw the first one that also included Viola Davies and Margot Robbie, they will be thinking where is Will Smith and Jared Leto.
Maybe it won’t be a problem but in my opinion I don’t think the marketing has been effective in telling the general audience that this is not a straight sequel.
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9 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:
It’s not a reboot. It’s a standalone sequel.
I said it was basically a reboot, which lets be honest it is.
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1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:
Yeah i agreed, BW is way bigger in scale, that's why Cruella will manage a 4x multiplier and BW won't get near 3x.
But i don't think it will abysmally bad either, just average like other MCU movies, so 2.6-2.7x
Kong was available for free and didn't have bad legs, this with PA should follow the pattern.
Especially because i do think PA numbers are always frontloaded, so in the next weeks this won't hurt it much. That's my theory of why Raya got 6.4x and Cruella will got +4.0x, smaller movies and PA only hurt it in the first days.
Ok yeah I agree with this.
Now it really just depends on the word of mouth. I definitely think the reaction to Black Widow is not as positive as most MCU films.
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Also one thing I was thinking is the themes of Black Widow (especially at the beginning) are quite dark for the MCU.
It’s not really a movie young kids would enjoy in the summer if I’m being honest. So that might effect legs but I’m only theorizing.
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8 minutes ago, BK007 said:
Why would they be expected to beat BW?
Shang Chi looks super generic. Without the pandemic I don't think it would have beaten Doctor Strange.
The Eternals also looks really meh. The jokes all fell flat, and from a non-comic reader, it looks like it's trying to replicate Guardians of the Galaxy except that was a comedy and this just looks like a plodding overwrought sci-fi film that doesn't do very well at the box office.
When have you ever been objective about Disney? You shouldn't worship corporations.
To be fair if anything, Black Widow looked more generic than Shang Chi and Eternals. Also the Black Widow character is dead, SC and Eternals will be the MCU phase 4 actually beginning imo.
Also it all depends on if Shang Chi and Eternals are actually good movies lol
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2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:
Cruella drop 7% on it's seventh weekend and in it's way to $ 85-90M after a only decent 21M OW
PA didn't destroy legs, if BW legs are terrible that's on the movie. But i see no reason to expect less than 2.6x
I’m unsure about this because Black Widow did open to the amount Cruella has just reached.
With the movie everywhere online and more fan driven, I’m unsure whether is ceiling is high for Black Widow.
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2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
That's why it won't get more than $100M PA, if it has $60M now...Folks are too nice, and will offer up the movie to their friends and family if they bought it, so almost no one is buying it after the 1st few opening days...and they won't mind doing it b/c it will make them feel like they got more worth for their money, too...
It's like me guesting my friend to my pool and her hosting me for dinner - she's so cheap to guest at my pool, she went without her own pool membership this year, and I just guest her in on mine...and she makes me dinner once a month for our game nights...and we both feel good treating the other and saving money overall...
Yes exactly!
Also we have to factor in that this will effect the movie’s theatrical legs. A big drop next weekend shouldn’t surprise us.
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28 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:
The reaction to the trailer in theaters was kind of alarming.
Really?
I wouldn’t say the trailer reactions were alarming but more the lack of buzz around them.
I think the marketing has failed to establish that this is basically a reboot. I genuinely think there is people out there who are like ‘where is Will Smith and Joker?’ lol
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If I knew someone who paid 30 for Black Widow on Disney plus, I would use their account to watch it cause I’m not paying that lol.
I suspect that happened a lot this weekend.
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5 minutes ago, JWR said:
It's certainly possible.
1. First live-action solo Batman movie in 10 years.
2. Early spring is usually a good weekend for movies.
3. Very little competition until Doctor Strange 2.
Honestly I think this movie will break out big, my final total prediction is between 1400-1700.
Also it is the first big movie release of 2022 to me, which makes it even better. Over 200 million opening weekend domestic? I’m positive it will happen.
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This movies looks fun but it does have a lot riding against it. I wouldn’t consider being R Rated a negative considering Jokers and Deadpool success.
However with the reception of the first one, the HBO Max release and no Joker or Will Smith, it has an uphill battle.
Critics reactions are very important for this movie.
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2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Does anyone have any idea when we can expect to hear about a potential China release?
I was thinking this.
If Disney gets the opportunity to release it in August, will they even bother if they have Jungle Cruise, Free Guy and Shang Chi coming up?
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Honestly I’m surprised it did this well considering the character is dead.
I don’t think it will have great legs but again we have to factor in that you can get a HD copy of this movie anywhere online. Also without a Chinese release, the box office total is definitely going to look worse.
Godzilla v Kong (I know it was at a worse stage of the pandemic) and F9 without China in the box office totals, don’t look that great.
In my opinion Godzilla v Kong would have grossed over 1 billion, the reaction to that trailer was insane.
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I was debating the box office potential for this movie with my friend and I want a to discuss it here. After the success of the first trailer, I believe it could be a runaway success. I know it’s a reboot but I don’t think that matters.
Obviously it all depends on whether the movie is good or bad (I doubt it as I consider Matt Reeves a great director).
The movie seems to be quite similar to the vibe of Joker. Joker was a runaway success making over a billion even though it was R Rated and no China (even though it has a 8.7 Douban score with over 800,000 user reviews).This film definitely has a high ceiling which means I can see it go over 1.5 million easily. Also Pattinson was one of the biggest stars in the world with Twilight. His return to a big mainstream blockbuster as a younger Batman is a winning combo I feel.
What do you guys think?
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37 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:
TV Shows - DC by an inch. Flash and Arrow etc. are just ahead of Daredevil because Agents of Shield is trash and Jessica Jones was underwhelming.
Comics - DC by a wide margin.
Animated - DC by a wide margin.
Film - Both have their +'s and -'s
I agree in some regards but Marvel clearly wins in the film medium in terms of conversation and success. Its my opinion but I think it's fair to say a lot of people think that I'm sorry to say.
Animation obviously goes to DC because Marvel doesn't really do it.
The comics argument is pointless. DC is doing well now with rebirth but Marvel could do something in the future, it's so hard to judge with constant reboots. It could be debated for hours.
I really love the Flash. I love Daredevil and Jessica Jones. Again TV is down to personal taste. Maybe Marvel has the edge in terms of quality and writing but the DC shows are fun and people enjoy them too.
Its all down to personal taste at the end of the day. I'm only comparing film in terms of success and what people say.
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I don't understand why people say Suicide Squad could never reach a billion.
It was one of the most talked about movies on social media for a long time, the trailers were incredibly popular with millions of views on Facebook and YouTube.
The film is still successful but no doubt in my mind if this film was more well received with critics and audiences it would of been targeting a billion dollars.
Edit: I forgot to say it is difficult to reach a billion with China but I still think this film could have performed better.
The film had some of the biggest opening days of all time in a number of countries. I just feel that if it was able to capitalise on the initial hype created from marketing it would have been a massive success.
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3 hours ago, Fullbuster said:
BRAZIL : MY FIRST PREDICTIONS FOR 2017 IN US DOLLARS
Star Wars 8 : $46m
Fast Furious 8 : $50m
Beauty and the Beast : $21.5m
Despicable Me 3 : $44.5m
Transformers 5 : $18m
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 : $28.5m
Cars 3 : $23m
Justice League : $53.5m
Pirates 5 : $27m
Thor 3 : $27.5m
Planet of the Apes 3 : $23.5m
Spiderman: $35m
Wonder Woman : $39m
Black Panther : $25m
The Mummy : $18m
Kong: Skull Island :$18m
The Great Wall : $17m
Coco : $19.5m
I've used an average exchange rate of $1 = R$2.80
Do you really think Justice League and Wonder Woman could reach that high?
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I used to enjoy reading this thread about peoples opinion on the box office every weekend but now it's just full of fans just trying to tell us how successful their dc movies are.
People can we stop with the dvd sales stats, ongoing conversation about the film reaching 300 million DOM and the never-ending talk about how WB are so happy, you swear you all worked for them.
You can have input but please stop it. The films made money and only WB knows if it's the success they wanted.
Let's vary the conversation and move on from DC movies. Discuss them in their own individual forums.
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Thanks God it's going to just about cross 300 after a 133 million opening.
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Suicide Squad seems to be doing ok this weekend but again can we please stop digging at people who are noting negative trends about its box office.
WB are the only ones who know if it's the success they wanted it to be. Let everyone have their say without telling them they're wrong.
THE SUICIDE SQUAD | August 6 2021 | James Gunn writing and directing
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Oh shit, you’re right. I didn’t even notice.