Valonqar

to be fair, LOTR was filmed as a trilogy back to back so they knew ROTK was coming. They weren't going to up the number of wins for the middle movie. Dune 2 could suffer from Dune Messiah announcement but it has contained story. What some call a cliffhanger really isn't that. I don't think that Feb/March stands in the way as much as actors' support. If it is seen as actors movie on top of tech movie (helped LOTR) than it has a shot to win. If not than no. If Oppenheimer wins, it will be a big socially relevant movie. They don't have to be small and barely seen all the fuckin time.

Agreed, Casting would be shoo-in lets hope Ensemble compensates. It needs to be seen as actor's movie not just tech movie. And yes, 1 acting nom is the most realistic scenario.

Chalamet and Zendaya will be campaigned in Lead which is much tougher category to get in. WB could technically fraud Zendaya in supporting but not Chalamet. Since Supporting is easier to get in, Butler with his showy af performance could get in since that category likes villains and OTT characters (see RDJ, Ruffalo, DeNiro, Gosling this year). Likewise, I've seen praise for Ferguson so she could sneak in Supporting if they decide to campaign her there anot fraud Z. So what I can see it winning: Picture Director Editing (repeat) Score (repeat) Sound (repeat) Production design (repeat) Cinematography (repeat) VFX (repeat) Makeup and Hairstyling (Butler's makeup is getting singled out although it's the same makeup like all Harkonens in the first movie) I think that Costume is tougher cause it didn't win last time, will depend on competition. Adapted is likely going to something else - they like to award small character-driven movies there - but as long as it's nominated it will be fine. I'm hoping for at least 1 acting nom and right now Butler seems the likeliest for what I said above. It really needs SAG Ensemble nom at least if it wants to win Picture.

Maybe Elrich resubmitted his rotten review?

That's gonna be the ultimate shipper movie. AO3 will explode.

Horizon movies won't go anywhere awards-wise. Yellowstone TV show and spin-offs got mostly ignored despite ratings. Costnerverse doesn't seem to be awards thing. Can't say tried to watch Yellowstone just to see what the fuss was about, was bored halfway through ep 1 and quit.

Time for "Reviews Are Mixed" headline

Fans mostly want it to happen for Villeneuve especially after that ridiculous snub

Technically March and EEAAO was released in March too. If a movie has what it takes, release date doesn't mean shit. By that logic, Oppenheimer (summer movie) shouldn't be the frontrunner but one of fall festival movies released between Oct and December.

because month of reelase doesn't matter if your movie sustains the buzz. Early release didn't hurt EEAAO also released in March. And we aren't discussing nomination here cause that seems pretty locked with reviews like these and first movie's pedigree. We are discussing potential win. I'd say SAG ensemble nom is a must (ROTK got it and won it, ditto Parasite) if it doesn't get individual acting nomination(s). Out of these supporting categories are easier to get in.

WB promoted the heck out of DUNC so they obviously have high hopes awards-wise and boxoffice-wise.

This. Even Nolan said so in his BAFTA speech.

Bleak shmleak. Oppenheimer is bleak yet to made almost 1B. Dune II will be fine. Audience can take bleakness.

Yeah not trying to jinx it but 100/3 ratio goes against dropping below 90% with more reviews.

Any foreign reviews that we can compare to domestic ones which are raves?

That's what I'm saying. Smart release date on WB part and obviously Momoa holds some appeal since the movie didn't collapse after the holiday season. Bomb to be sure but a Pyrric win in comparison to some other bombs that didn't have a likeable star to tide them over.

There's also another thing that worries me re: win which is that current Metacritic is 80 while Oppenheimer is 90. Given the genre bias, genre movies need to work harder to win. ROTK had 94, Shape of the Water 87 but EEAAO 81 though that one has some other advantages. I really hope Meta stays above 80 and increase. Bloody Elrich review really drags it down.

It would be fair if a WB sci fi became the first one to win Best Picture. I know that some consider EEAAO sci fi but that's a stretch. It's more of a fantasy.

Those 3 negative reviews look sos tupid now.

💯

Yep reviews when you read them in depth definitely sound like that. Fingers crossed.

Boo counting Erlich of all reviews twice! I'm focusing on acting in reviews and so far cast has been praised - Tim, Z, Becca and Austin.

Thank you!

why can't I see the reviews and score on Metacritic?

Massive fan! McAvoy's breakout role if I'm not mistaken, great performances by unknown cast (especially Alia), incredible score. Much better than Dune adaptation the same team did though I liked Irulan's expansion and the actress was great. Same. Dune series felt stilted in dialog cause they were too scared to stray from the text (sacred cow!) and adpat it to natural dialog. No such problem with CoD which was actually Messiah + CoD adaptation. Made me tear up so many times.