Eevin

pretty solid numbers for tmnt. hoping that it and meg 2 can both hit 25 for FSS. assuming Oppy can drop under 46%, it’d be the first time the top 4 all did 25m+ since… thanksgiving 2018. gotta love signs of long-term BO health

birds of prey was seen by so few people that i doubt most audiences would know the difference

haunted mansion absolutely does not belong in the same category as mario or barbie or tmnt lol. there’s not like a massive secret cohort of adult fans just dying for a good haunted mansion movie

couldn’t give less of a fuck about little mermaid as a film but i’m happy cuz there is NOTHING that vexes me more than when a movie is like $1-2m away from the nearest $100m and there’s just no push to get it there. i’m just a nerd that way i guess but like. gnomeo and juliet made $99.967 million domestic. the studio couldn’t have found $33,000 in their pocket somewhere to push it along? disgusting!!

what would good numbers for meg/tmnt look like this weekend relative to expectations? i haven’t been keeping tabs on tracking as much but my priors are like 20-25 for meg 2 and 30-35 5-day for tmnt. don’t know if i’m being optimistic or pessimistic there

just realized one record oppenheimer is probably going to smash in the next couple of weeks is highest-grossing film never to reach #1 – sing currently holds the record at $270m and that's basically locked for oppy at this point. i also don't see a way how it claws to #1 during its run with barbie pulling similar drops and double the grosses

i would love to someday approach my life with the unearned confidence with which you make some of your predictions

deadline: barbie 28 oppy 14 HM 9-10 Barbie is going to need a bigger dream house as the Greta Gerwig directed comedy is now looking at a second weekend of $90M at 4,337 theaters, -44%, for a running total of $348.3M. It’s not surprising to see a higher figure, given how the Mattel doll has pulled in Marvel like grosses of $20M+ daily during the weekdays. Friday is looking like $28M, -60% from a week ago. That second weekend for Barbie isn’t that far from the $90.4M weekend two of Beauty and the Beast. Univeral’s Oppenheimer is seeing a second Friday of $14M,-58%, and second weekend of $47M, -43%, for a ten-day total of $174.8M at 3,647 theaters. Disney’s Haunted Mansion is seeing $9M-$10M and a 3-day of $25M at 3,740 theaters.

so is this gonna be the first weekend in history with two 100m+ openers? cuz i don’t know a single person who would have predicted it would be THESE two movies lmao

imo i think the success of Barbie/Gerwig also boils down to a very specific thematic overlap that is not easily replicated — Gerwig’s consistent reflections on womanhood are a perfect match for Barbie as a concept, but i don’t know how easily you can do that with like, gi joe

you’re right this weekend is actually a bad sign for moviegoing. idk why everyone else can’t see it

mmm idk bout that

tired of bland predictions. barbie 210/oppy 90

at this point what are the odds elemental beats flash worldwide lol? obviously elemental likely winning dom is wild already, but worldwide would be NUTS — i could see both coming in 290-310m range if elemental keeps holding well enough

did a lil digging and once it passes ~$356m gotg 3 will be the leggiest summer opener since…iron man, funnily enough. feels like a very full circle moment 2008: iron man - 98.7m/318.6m (3.23x) 2009: x-men origins wolverine - 85.1m/179.9m (2.11x) 2010: iron man 2 - 128.1m/312.4m (2.44x) 2011: thor - 65.7m/181m (2.75x) 2012: avengers - 207.4m/623.3m (3.00x) 2013: iron man 3 - 174.1m/409m (2.35x) 2014: TASM2 - 91.6m/202.8m (2.21x) 2015: age of ultron - 191.4m/459m (2.40x) 2016: civil war - 179.1m/408m (2.28x) 2017: gotg 2 - 146.5m/389.8m (2.66x) 2018: infinity war - 257.7m/678.8m (2.63x) 2019: endgame - 357.1m/858.4m (2.40x) 2021: black widow - 80.4m/183.7m (2.28x) 2022: doctor strange 2 - 187.4m/411.3m (2.11x) 2023: gotg 3 - 118.4m/~360m (3.04x)

i’m not gonna lie flash having a catastrophic drop but **juuust barely* not a record for a CBM/50m+ opener would be very on-brand for how this run has gone so far

ehh in this day and age i think underestimating the general audience is pretty reasonable lol but agree to disagree. i loved the first one and i'm hoping for an enormous breakout sequel, so i'd love to be wrong

definitely agree with @ZattMurdock that brave and the bold should lean into aesthetic/content differences with the batman as much as possible. talking like *old*/lighthearted batman, light blue suit, bat-family, lots of weird wacky sci-fi stuff that modern adaptations seem to have forgotten how to do. they are never going to be able to do a grimdark batman as successfully as nolan/reeves/burton were able to, but there's certainly plenty of room to top schumacher/batman 66 as the definitive campy batman movie

my hot take is that the batman probably did help the flash open a bit higher lmao so not sure i agree. i shudder to think about how low flash would have opened without advertising the character so prominently. when i say "a negative effect" i don't mean a monster effect lol. i don't even think the batman 2 will decrease; all i'm saying is that it's very premature to rule out the possibility when the flash is on track to be maybe the biggest bomb of all time. we have no idea what kinds of effect this is going to have, not just on the batman but for gunn's whole DCU plan moving forward

bold to assume they're still letting muschietti touch the batman brand with a 10-foot pole after flash went over like a wet turd with the GA lol

definitely not foolish lol. who knows where the DC brand will be by 2025? comparing marvel's current brand strength to 2019 or even to 2022 is a failing exercise and the same applies here for obvious reasons. DC is in a rut when it comes to audience reception and interest. i'm not saying it'll affect the batman 2 enough for it to be a flop, or even a disappointment, but i think it's a bit bold to assume there will be **zero** impact -- audiences aren't stupid, but they are increasingly skeptical, and DC fatigue + having a new batman running around in the brave and the bold certainly won't help in terms of confusion. this literally happened with guardians 3 last month -- it's basically indisputable that it opened lower because of poor/mixed reception to the last few MCU entries, even though guardians has always been tonally and stylistically unique from the rest of the MCU. it's a success for sure, but it's gonna end up underperforming vol. 2 largely for that reason. i could see batman 2 following a similar pattern – lower OW followed by strong legs if it's good – but finishing slightly lower than its predecessor overall.

i do think people should temper their expectations with the batman part ii after the past few weeks… even though it’s an elseworlds story i could very easily see it being affected by the cratering of the dc brand. not staying it can’t still break out to 400m+ DOM or 1b+ ww, but i think folks shouldn’t be surprised if it stays flat or even decreases slightly

zaslav & wb executives in august when blue beetle drops 91% on its second friday after a 25m ow (supes said it was the best CBM of all time)

does seem like audience reception *really* seems to matter post-covid for CBMs in a way that it rarely did previously. i think some folks forget that for a few years there 2.4-2.7 multiplier was the standard –– but this year we've gotten either 3x+ or sub-2x based largely on reviews Spiderverse: ~380m off 120.7m ow (3.15x); 96 RT, 86 MC, A CS GotG Vol. 3: ~360m off 118.4m ow (3.05x); 82 RT, 64 MC, A CS Quantumania: 214.5m off 106.1m ow (2.02x); 46 RT, 48 MC, B CS Shazam 2: 57.6m off 30.1m ow (1.91x); 49 RT, 47 MC, B+ CS Flash: ~105m off 55m ow (1.91x); 66 RT, 56 MC, B CS could also just be a general decline in quality in the genre post-endgame, but the lineup with cinemascore in particular feels more pertinent than ever

under 14.4m and it's the biggest CBM drop of all time (-74%) come onnnnnn