Eevin

summer predix– Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - 200/480 Jurassic World: Dominion - 160/425 Thor: Love and Thunder - 150/400 Lightyear - 100/310 Minions: The Rise of Gru - 75/220 Nope - 50/160 Top Gun: Maverick - 60/150 DC League of Super-Pets - 40/140 Bullet Train - 40/120 Elvis - 30/110 whoops not trying to copy you @YourMother lol. i'm not as bullish on JW but 400+ seems likely no matter what

really nice hold for sonic especially given the muted holiday trends this year. 20%ish drop today would be a good sign for how it holds this weekend. fb3...well, it’s too early to really tell, but not exactly looking like a leggy wonder lol

Sonic 2 actual - $29,304,395 -42% on Sunday, oof. Here's hoping for a strong hold next weekend

both dune 2 and fantastic beasts 4 are financially risky but i think the difference is dune’s $400m gross basically exists in a vacuum. no one really knows whether that’s the ceiling for the franchise, whether it was limited by hbo max/covid factors, or whether winning 6 oscars will have any effect on dune 2. meanwhile the wizarding world has ample history. SoD doing 400 in a franchise that routinely put up 800-900m over a decade ago is a much clearer indicator of its appeal imo

couldn’t agree more!!! worst scene in the franchise imo is when harry/ginny kiss in HBP. i like the movie but damn the timing for that scene is atrocious. close 2nd is the “nice skin” bit

i really thought it being a religious holiday would boost morbius…oh well 😕

eeaao is probably the biggest unqualified success this weekend. i think beating out moonlight ($27.8m dom) for #4 a24 grosser all-time is a lock. do we think it can hit the $44-50m range of hereditary / lady bird / uncut gems?

lower than morbius??

at this point what would a “good” friday look like for fb3? 20m+? if it’s something like 18-19 40m could be seriously in jeopardy

some movies are just so bad they can single handedly kill enormously popular franchises, and crimes of grindelwald is proof of that waaaay more than anything pandemic-related. fantastic beasts is also so much more incidental to the harry potter series than the hobbit or star wars prequels were to their own franchises. if it was like a marauders prequel or another hogwarts series fans might show up regardless of reviews. but no one is going to show up to see the continuing adventures of newt credence etc without the movies even being good lol

weekday numbers for EEAAO just dropped, all fairly strong holds monday - $736,250 (-58%) tuesday - $811,250 (+10%) wednesday - $732,500 (-10%) thursday - $782,500 (+7%)

yeah i started tracking and lurking in 2015 when i was 13 and to me that’s still without a doubt the best year. the age of ultron meltdowns, jurassic world’s insane ow, force awakens just posting absolutely crazy numbers… of course that was before last jedi/BvS discourse kinda poisoned everything and marvel really became dominant. i don’t think the magic is gone though. we’re witnessing history in the making with the BO’s return to normalcy and even if the numbers and breakout hits aren’t what they were 5-6 years ago, holding on to the idea that they could be is what’s making every new weekend fun. even got me back here after like four years of being inactive. i will also say when i joined in 2016 we had nothing close to the tracking team operation we have now. genuinely one of the coolest parts of being back is seeing BOT basically predict the future, weekend after weekend. that’s added some novelty and excitement for me the past couple weeks.

the fact that $45m would be considered a “win” at this point is surreal. i remember back in the day some people thought fb1 was disappointing lmao

pretty small drops across the board. 4.3-4.5m seems ideal for sonic, 15-20%ish drop

yeah not a great jump at all, 16% is below basically every other comp i can think of. that said, seems like increases today are pretty weak across the board for whatever reason?

sonic 2 - $5,049,159 (+16%) lost city - $961,679 (+29% / -45% LW)

sonic 2 is holding almost exactly like shazam so far shazam 14.4 true fri 19.5 sat (+35%) 13.6 sun (-30%) 3 mon (-78%) sonic 2 20.1 true fri 26.9 sat (+34%) 18.8 sun (-30%) 4.3 mon (-77%) if that holds it’d be a ~34-35m second weekend (maybe slightly lower due to easter sunday)

they haven't been paying that much attention to the rowling stuff tbh. they liked the first one but hated/were confused by the second one and just haven't expressed any interest this time around. i think rowling has not done the franchise any favors, but i'm skeptical a lot of general audiences who are older/ aren't terminally online will know much about all of it. IMO much of the blame for fb3's likely poor performance has to come down to fb2 being such a god-awful movie, one of the worst major blockbusters in recent memory.

very possible that fb3 winds up below uncharted WW which is absolutely bonkers. ~250m overseas (50% drop from grindelwald) and ~120m domestic would do it. the franchise's public image is just buried at this point. my family are all diehard potter fans and have zero interest in fantastic beasts.

feels like the mario movie is under-discussed as one of the biggest potential grossers of the year. if sonic can pull 200+ i think 300-350 is more than realistic for it, especially if it's even halfway decent

highlight of the movie was when someone in the back shouted "did they just turn into a fucking rock?!" during a moment of dead silence. fantastic from start to finish. michelle yeoh has never been better and the plot is amazingly easy to follow given how dense it is. honestly better than anything i saw last year. the last hour goes on a bit too long but i was having so much fun i didn't mind. stephanie hsu is MVP and needs to be in more things. A/A+

saw everything everywhere all at once last night and i have *never* seen a crowd react that enthusiastically in that theatre other than a couple mcu opening weekends. cheers and laughs from the audience basically the whole time. WOM is going to be insane it's the best thing ever

thanks! i got burned out from the box office way back from all the last jedi discourse, but i started lurking again during NWH’s run and have been getting back into it ever since. weird to think i was 15 the last time i was here though lol. good to see everyone again

fair point - on a covid curve i would take it though, especially since legs will almost certainly be better than the first one

haven’t posted in four years, i had to come back with a banger (no pun intended)