Eevin

Basically the only way it survives is if it has Saturday/Sunday holds bad enough to put it under $150m, then legs bad enough post-ow (sub-3x) to get it under $450m. Some still have hope, I guess.

Now I just need those sweet, sweet La La Land/Manchester numbers...

If this does sub-$150m over the weekend, I think it's a clear sign that legs aren't that strong. I very much doubt it will, but something like this: $29m previews $44m Friday ($73m) $40m Saturday ($113m) $30m Sunday ($143m) would not be pretty. Mid-$150s would be somewhat expected, and quite good: $29m previews $44m Friday ($73m) $47m Saturday ($120m) $35m Sunday ($155m) If it does $160m+, that's leggier than many expected and probably a sign of backloading. $500m would be near-locked at that point. $29m previews $44m Friday ($73m) $50m Saturday ($123m) $38m Sunday ($161m)

$29m previews $44m Friday ($73m) $53m Saturday ($126m) $44m Sunday ($170m)

I mean, good, I guess? Certainly means it's playing very well to a lot of people. Still, hard to know if the A applies to the hardcore fanbase or to general audiences.

Does it count if you barely have 160 posts?

That's because there hasn't been a $110m+ opener in the holiday season besides TFA. People can debate the logistics of holiday legs + big openings all they want, but the reality is that we only have one comparison, which was a phenomenon that may or may not ever happen again. Like it or not, things like Rogue One are establishing precedent for the next December event film, and the next, and the next. For me, at least, the best part of box office is the unknown. History is constantly being made, folks. It's more fun that way.

I mean, I've witnessed many weekend threads here (that Jungle Book one was fun), but I've never participated in one to this scale.

What even is this thread

Yeah, but different times, different circumstances. Even 10 years ago blockbusters were far less frontloaded.

Fair enough, but still kind of a disappointing end to 2016 considering what an awesome year WB has had so far. What is the budget for Assassin's Creed btw? I know it was "near $200m" but has there been an official number released?

I wouldn't say "overwhelming" at all, but yes, there is a bit more life in the club than most would have believed a few days ago.

This is kind of a nightmare for Collateral Beauty, though. If it does manage to hit $8m for the weekend (and it could very well go down), it's still going to collapse thanks to poor word-of-mouth. Concussion had just a 3.3x multiple with much better reviews. If Collateral somehow manages to hit that, it'll only be at $26.4m domestic. "But overseas!" I hear you saying. Concussion made just $14m overseas, so that was a non factor, but even if Collateral makes double that it'll still only be at $55m worldwide on a $36m budget. Heck, even if it makes just 1/3 of its money in America with that $26m total, that's still $79m worldwide on a $36m budget which, at most, means it breaks even.

High 60s would be terrific for Rogue One. $150m+ is still very much alive, especially if it hits $70m tonight.

$29m is a solid number, and the lack of Passengers as major competition means it's going to have good legs. Still, kinda wishing I'd kept my prediction at $152m instead of bumping it to $170m at the last minute.

$30m is a good number, but I'm going to take it with a grain of salt. Did Deadline do a number like this the night of TFA previews? Also, way to go hitting 40+ pages without the first sign of numbers! The Force is strong with this one.

While that is true, it's also very different from Passengers. Daddy's Home thrived because something needed to under The Force Awakens. We're already getting two $200m+ grossers in Rogue One and Sing, and I'd argue Passengers was dependent on differentiating itself from Rogue One. Now, it's a pretty terribly-reviewed sci-fi movie going up against a really, really big, well-reviewed sci-fi movie with the brand power of Star Wars. Unless WOM is unexpectedly great, this is not going to be pretty.

Yeah, I could see that. But for me, I'm not too sure that Passengers failing will affect Why Him?. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. I think it does have the potential to outgross Assassin's Creed and Passengers, and we saw last year that comedies are very capable of thriving under the massive shadow of Star Wars.

Wow. This is much worse than I imagined. Could these reviews benefit Rogue One, Sing, or Assassin's Creed's box office? I know most people didn't expect $200m+ for this, but going from $150m-ish to possibly sub-$100m is a lot of unspent money. Could it go to the other 300-pound sci-fi/adventure elephant in the room, the big animated family blockbuster, or the wild card depending on reviews?

Not being a record doesn't mean it's a nonevent.

Now, I meant missing the top 10 DOM overall wouldn't be disappointing. Sub-300, however, would be disastrous. Even my absolute rock-bottom worst-case scenario has Disney fudging it over $300m.

If this were SW8, I'd agree with you. But this is Rogue One, a spinoff to The Force Awakens. Sure, in relation to our overinflated expectations and in relation to how well it's been doing in presales, something like $120m/$400m is disappointing. But to Disney, I'm sure they're thrilled that a Star Wars spin-off can approach these levels and be considered a disappointment. I refuse to believe that a movie that does $485m domestically is disappointing, regardless of the precedent. ANY franchise, ANY movie (again, except SW8) would be thrilled to hit those numbers.

Yeah ok, that's what I thought.

? You mean considers $400m a bad number?