TwoMisfits

So, have the worried Shazam fans relaxed yet?:) It's been a good week of weekdays, and it's gonna be a great weekend hold...and then a great Monday...followed by decent weekdays til Thursday...and then a rough weekend before some recovery for 2 weeks after Endgame... Aka - it's doing just fine in its spot:)...

I could see them as special one day releases for Earth day...and then dropped onto Disney+...that's probably all they'd need for the size of the audience...

So, for tracking, my entire metro area pulled any previous planned Friday showings for other movies on Endgame opening weekend...right now, it's Endgame only for everything. I think every theater is gonna hold sets til after this weekend, and see if any movie is getting Friday night showings except Endgame. Now, Thursday night still has a few scattered showings listed for this weekend's openers across the metro...we'll see if those also get pulled Monday:)...

My spouse is a fan of awful movies and tv...and I admit, we just watched episode 6 of Titans, and I thought the shark was jumped in episode 5, but ho boy, the Jason Todd episode took it to another level... Right now, I'm watching the show with sick fascination for how bad this show is gonna get...and wondering on whoever greenlit this concept of the iconic Titans and Bat Family (which are my favorite comic books:), and whether they ever picked up an issue or were just deciding for edgy and dark and nonsensical to be edgy, dark, and nonsensical...and to get my 80 cents worth before I cancel DC Universe on the 26th:)...

Having just watched episode 5, not believing it could get worse, I think I agree with you 1000%. Never did I expect the "spectacular" writing that my favorite DC character has gotten for this show:)...

Local sets for this week - aka PRE-ENDGAME! So, last week's NEW movies are already feeling fallout from the tight theaters at my Regal...it's gonna be a bloodbath next weekend (I'm pretty sure most of the booked openers are not getting "guaranteed" next weekend, if some of last week's openers didn't:)...also, the Cinemark theater did not book every new movie this weekend... Cinemark 12 NEW Curse of La Llorona (1 - 6 showings) (biggest size) Penguins (1 - 5 showings) (smallest size) TWO foreign films (2 - 4 showings each) (smallest size) - these are goners next week RETURNING Shazam (1 - 5 showings) (lost a screen, but kept a biggest size screen) Hellboy (1 - 5 showings) Little (1 - 5 showings) Pet Semetary (1 - 5 showings) Dumbo (1 - 5 showings) Us (1 - 5 showings) Capt Marvel (1 - 5 showings) Missing Link (1 - 5 showings) GONE Best of Enemies (lasted 2 weeks), All previous foreign films (none held over - the 2 this week are new) Regal 12 NEW Curse of La Llorona (1 - 5 showings) (above average size) Breakthrough (1 - 4 showings) (above average size) Penguins (1 - 5 showings) (smallest size) Returning Hellboy (1 - 4 showings) (lost a showing by being on the "start late" clock) Little (1 - 5 showings) Missing Link (.5 - TWO showings (in it's 2nd weekend, it already lost a 1/2 screen - it's a goner next week and wasn't even protected for this 2nd weekend as a family movie - that's ROUGH) After (1 - 5 showings) Pet Semetary (1 - 5 showings) Shazam (1 - 4 showings) (lost a screen, but kept the biggest size for the weekend) Best of Enemies (.5 - 2 showings) (another predicted goner for next weekend) Dumbo (1 - 5 showings) Capt Marvel (1 - 4 showings) Us (.6 - 3 showings) (this is gonna be a goner next weekend, too) HTTYD 3 (.4 - 2 showings) (the last definite goner next weekend) GONE Five Feet Apart, Wonder Park So, if I were to predict both theaters for Endgame weekend, right now, they each have 5 screens booked, but I think they'll go higher. Cinemark will probably drop the foreign films for 2 screens, Pet Semetary, Us, and Missing Link for 5 screens - after that, it's gonna be tight, and I'd expect some screen sharing to get more screens (and if Penguins isn't protected, to become the Penguins/Endgame screen)...unless a holdover like Hellboy shows non-existent legs, which is likely... Regal will probably drop Missing Link, Us, HTTYD3, and Best of Enemies as easy cuts for 2 screens...after that, I think After and Dumbo might go to get to 4 screens...and then it might be hard - I think Hellboy will be on the block but this theater does do male 12-45 movies really well...but I'll say it or Pet Semetary drops to get the 5. Then, the question is, do they drop more or share more?:) I guess we'll see...

Thursday previews were gonna be awful with 4th of July fireworks, so this takes preview night pressure off (and let's the movie rack up the early Thursday holiday money)...it gives it a much more "holiday opener" type of figure...and makes it the event of the whole week. I like the move, too:)...nothing really opens the week before that Spidey needs to worry about...and nothing is really opening against it...it's quite a clear out for Spidey, almost on the level of the Endgame one, b/c nothing big opens the week prior, the week of, or the week after...should make for a great start for the movie...

While there's a year of inflation (so, say $3-5M or so baked in), this is gonna have EVEN MORE of a rush factor than IW. IW also did NOT have round-the-clock Thurs/Fri shows (at least in most metros - maybe a few outliers did have them), and it's looking like Endgame is starting to get them Thursday night, at a minimum... 12 months of build up is gonna lead to a more front-loaded weekend, even over the 4 days...I wouldn't count on Endgame besting IW on Sat/Sun, at least not by more than the rate of ticket price increase...it's gotta happen in the 1st 2 days to give this a $300M chance...

I can't get a ticket for OW where I am (Thurs-Sun) through any show I'd be willing to see (all those before 10pm not in the 1st row, b/c staying out til 2am seems a little optimistic)...and this is with the movie on 5+ screens everywhere... This movie is the zeitgeist...it is the TFA movie, only bigger and with more build up. It is a cultural touchstone for practically every adult 18-50. I never thought I'd say this 6 months ago, but even with me not even going til the 10th day of the run, I'm IN! PS - And I think it needs $150M the 1st 2 days to get this record...if it doesn't get that, this movie is gonna need a really nice Sunday hold to make it (b/c I expect round-the-clock and in-almost-all-screens showings through Saturday early am...and then theaters backing off a little for holdovers through the weekend)...

If I was "realistically" predicting Shazam through Sunday, it would probably be: Wed $2.15M (-33%) Thurs $2.53M (+18%) And then FSS Fri $5.06M (+100%) Sat $5.16M (+2%) Sun $3.61M (-30%) Total FSS $13.83M (43% drop) Total Shazam DOM through Sunday $118.04M (ish) Now, these predicts being said, last year we had REAL openers for the Easter weekend with Ready Player One...and Tyler Perry...this weekend's set should not get anywhere close to RPO pull (even though we have more movies), so I could see all my numbers elevating, ESPECIALLY Saturday, b/c for whatever reason, Saturdays are doing better this year than 2018...we have tended to have slightly deflated Fridays and slightly inflated Saturdays pretty much all year so far (which is why Deadline numbers have been crappier than usual, even for holdovers:)... So, I see $15M for the weekend in the realm of the definitely possible, b/c there is no big movie taking away the blockbuster audience...and seeing the 1st 2 weekdays, I definitely don't see a weekend drop that will exceed the low 40's...

Shazam 35% drop week-over-week, and a 53% bump from Monday...that's week-over-week drops in the 30's for the 1st 2 weekdays...should see that improve for the rest of the weekdays this week:)...

I just got my tickets for May 7...yes, that's right, 10 days after open:)...my spouse finally decided he wanted to go, and 1st weekend worthy tickets (since he said he didn't want a bad seat) were sold out at our 2 favorite local theaters, and our 2nd weekend is jam packed with kid activities, so to our single open weeknight I went (and yes, 1st cheap Tuesday was also sold out of decent evening seats at my one local who does it)...oh well, at least I got center seats for a 7pm showing:)...and I'll be in the "leg kick" for the movie:)...yes, yes, I could have waited to see if more showings were opening up, but then my spouse thought of being in a theater fully sold out, and what the parking lot, concessions, bathrooms, and theater states might be by the end of the night, and he decided he didn't mind waiting a few extra days (since it's not like Ugly Dolls is gonna draw that huge:)... So, try not to ruin it for me...but if it's polarizing, let me know:).

Wed drop is too high...drops on the Wed before Easter are usually between 20-30%, unless the movie has significant theater drops...and Thursday's pop is probably too small as well...here's last year's lead-in to Easter week for comparison... https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2018-03-28&p=.htm

It's probably pretty obvious, but I think any Thursday night showing 6pm or later on Endgame's OW will be an Endgame showing at literally every theater with 12 screens or less...and probably at theaters with 16 screens or less. Nothing is gonna sell better that night, and the new movies opening this week/weekend probably don't have the "juice" to save their last showing or two of the night. I'd say Friday night might go the same way, with maybe 1-2 movies being alternatives for 7 and 10pm showings...and then the theaters will get back to a more "regular" set (well, I mean they'll have Endgame on acres of screens, but they'll let their holdover movies actually have some evening showings)... It's one reason that I think to go $300M, Endgame needs $150M through Friday b/c those 1st 2 days will have availability that will be unseen for any movie ever:)...

The power of Easter spring break - Wonder Park is actually a whopping 12% higher than last Monday:)...