Jump to content

Happy Summer Movie Season. Play the summer game.

TwoMisfits

Free Account+
  • Content Count

    4,995
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

4,529 Likes

About TwoMisfits

  • Rank
    Box Office Gold

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Well, they do get the box office revenue...so they sure aren't making any money off of it with this opening:)...
  2. I think we do need to break down adults when we talk adult appealing... There are about 3 tiers of adult movie goers, 18-35, 35-55, 55+...not every adult skewing movie will hit all three tiers, and when folks start to talk adult movie, I think they normally mean the last 2 (vs an R rated horror, which goes for the 1st tier and maybe a little of the 2nd, if it's not Steven King:)... EDIT: And the tiers are not exact, but rough divisions...
  3. On family movies...let me not beat a dead horse...oh crap, let me do it anyway:)... Matinees in major metros are $12.50/person. Evening shows are $15+/person. Most families would be 4 people for an animated movie. Now, then you are spending $50-60 just to get in the door...and then adding on the large popcorn and large soda for another $20, you've got $70-$80 for a movie. That's not a sustainable number for a family to go to more than 2-3 movies/year as an "event" vs seeing every single movie that comes down the pipe. The family movies that have done well are the Disney ones, which have an enormous adult and old person fan base...and the ones that did "better than expected" are the ones who took the "price plunge" and gave that family of 4 a chance to go for $40 or less ($20 on tickets and $20 on food). Folks don't mind dropping a $20...but they do mind dropping $80. $80 can get 2 outings to a trampoline park, a run through an escape room, 4 kid outings to a bounce house, 2 outings to a minor league baseball game, 2 evening bowling outings with shoes, etc...movies start not comparing nearly as well at the current price point when there are so many other options at that price point or less...and the movies will be available with just a little patience (which the other items won't)... The movie subscriber base in the US that started in 2017 has been limited solely to adults...and that's had an effect, one that I think has grown...it changes the worth of movies to the adult base that would have to buy the kid films...b/c the kids always are full price, even if the family has movie subscribers... There is gonna either have to be more discount schemes or flat price reductions for these non-Disney movies to stay relevant in the marketplace and not go the way of rom-coms...I mean, maybe PG and G movies get the $5 price every weekday - maybe stretch out the discount Tuesday effect and that way, weekends could give even more showings and screens to PG-13 and R tentpoles and adult films...
  4. Bingo - 100%. I think a lot of these movies would have gone way higher at $5/person. Wonder Park, a movie that wouldn't have made more than Missing Link or Ugly Dolls b/c it was the least star-powered and quality of the lot, somehow made more than double both (and almost triple DOM) b/c it picked a $5 price and ran with it for almost its entire run. The other 2 stuck to full pricing and no deals...and flamed out accordingly. There are lessons here, at least for family movies...price is a bigger and bigger driver in the industry, and needs to be considered and accommodated if you aren't the top...
  5. Exactly right:). Now, you know why Charles created the X-Men, b/c with a teammate or two, Charles is the more powerful one...that teammate just has to be able to grab the helmet (hello, Nightcrawler and Kitty Pride:)...
  6. Depends if they pull the core demo they are obviously trying to crack...3 generations for that movie should help give it a Father's Day lift, since it's obviously gonna have a core family (granddad/dad/son) message... And it looks different and new, and yet the same..that tends to actually be a key thing for movie success this year - see Aladdin and JW 3... But it could also suck...and that would probably quickly deflate the movie's chances...
  7. SLOP 2 is not a flop and will be fine. For some folks, it may be a disappointment, b/c they hoped this movie could match the magic of the 1st...but it was kinda clear it wasn't gonna do that a few weeks ago (at least for OW - I never write legs off on OW just in case it nails the family:)... For the next 2 weeks, it gets to be the swim team/summer camp movie, and gets to enjoy 2 weeks as the obvious "all gender/all ages" family movie. Toys 4 will hurt, but then it gets another 2 weeks of prime summer weekdays (since it won't be dropped at Toys 4 - Dark Phoenix obviously goes before it:)...and movies like this thrive on summer weekdays... Since it offered no promos (unlike Dark Phoenix which had Atom and Fandango ticket deals), I expect 1st cheap shows and Tuesdays to be absolute sellouts for this movie for a few weeks, while families prioritize their funds...camps/groups get the same type deals for matinees, so those should also do well for weeks, but maybe not sell out. It will only be weak at night, which is the normal norm for these types of movies.
  8. If Pets gets to $16M true Friday, it should easily get into the mid-50's for the weekend...and possibly higher...
  9. Bingo - especially for family oriented movies where kids can't have movie memberships... There needs to be tiered pricing, but not tiers where prices go up, but where prices are just reduced for certain openers...
  10. Some movies are just beyond helping:). My spouse said someone would have to pay him $4 to go see Hellboy - free was still gonna be too much:).
  11. That's the effect I've been talking about - these TMobile deals can have a large effect on the weekend BO for a movie when they come around, especially for movies doing poorly in early presales or generally not expected to do much (b/c the ratio of redeemers and "off the couch" not-planning-to-go movie goers doesn't have to be high to kick in a high total)...but the effect itself will tend to be a major metro effect (b/c they have the highest ticket prices to start, so those users think it's the best deal), an Atom-localized effect (if your city doesn't have Atom theaters, well, obviously, you're not effected), and an "all weekend" effect, since for example, I'd never buy for Thursday night when I could go Saturday night... Now, TMobile has never released the proportion of users who redeem these deals...coupon redemption tends to be a low number across the industries, but then again, it doesn't take much to turn a $30M OW to a $40M OW when you look at the user base (since the users will be redeeming for the most expensive showtimes:)...
  12. It's a tight market when Aladdin is already dropping almost 700 theaters in week 3... Pika and Endgame are mimicking each other on drops...and the Memorial openers, "The Killer B's" actually didn't get quite as eviscerated as I thought (but their theater drops are still horrid)... June 7 Updated Thursday afternoons << Prev. Week < Last Year View Index Next Year > Next Week >> Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Est. Screens Change Est. Shows Change Week # > NEW RELEASES 1 - The Secret Life of Pets 2 Universal 4,561 - - - - - - 1 4 - Dark Phoenix Fox 3,721 - - - - - - 1 14 - Bharat Viva Pictures Distribution 350 - - - - - - 1 35 - The Last Black Man in San Francisco A24 7 - - - - - - 1 38 - This One's for the Ladies Super 1 - - - - - - 1 > EXPANDING 6 7 Ma (2019) Universal 2,816 +8 +0.3% - - - - 2 15 31 All Is True Sony Classics 328 +247 +304.9% - - - - 5 17 17 Biggest Little Farm Neon 285 +10 +3.6% - - - - 5 18 43 The Tomorrow Man Bleecker Street 207 +189 +1,050.0% - - - - 3 22 22 Captain Marvel Buena Vista 175 +13 +8.0% - - - - 14 24 35 The Souvenir A24 145 +71 +95.9% - - - - 4 31 37 Penguins (Disneynature) Buena Vista 55 +10 +22.2% - - - - 8 34 52 The Fall of the American Empire Entertainment One 14 +5 +55.6% - - - - 17 > NO CHANGE 2 2 Godzilla: King of the Monsters Warner Bros. 4,108 - - - - - - 2 5 3 Rocketman Paramount 3,610 - - - - - - 2 > DECLINING 3 1 Aladdin (2019) Buena Vista 3,805 -671 -15.0% - - - - 3 7 4 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum Lionsgate/Summit 2,776 -828 -23.0% - - - - 4 8 5 Pokemon Detective Pikachu Warner Bros. 2,161 -986 -31.3% - - - - 5 9 6 Avengers: Endgame Buena Vista 2,121 -984 -31.7% - - - - 7 10 9 Booksmart United Artists Releasing 1,134 -1,384 -55.0% - - - - 3 11 8 Brightburn Sony / Screen Gems 1,013 -1,594 -61.1% - - - - 3 12 10 A Dog's Journey Universal 628 -1,046 -62.5% - - - - 4 13 11 The Hustle United Artists Releasing 416 -991 -70.4% - - - - 5 16 12 The Intruder (2019) Sony / Screen Gems 306 -501 -62.1% - - - - 6 19 15 Shazam! Warner Bros. (New Line) 205 -132 -39.2% - - - - 10 20 16 Uglydolls STX Entertainment 188 -108 -36.5% - - - - 6 21 14 Poms STX Entertainment 177 -197 -52.7% - - - - 5 23 13 Long Shot Lionsgate/Summit 147 -330 -69.2% - - - - 6 25 18 Breakthrough Fox 137 -114 -45.4% - - - - 8 26 21 The Curse of La Llorona Warner Bros. (New Line) 120 -47 -28.1% - - - - 8 27 19 Dumbo (2019) Buena Vista 112 -118 -51.3% - - - - 11 28 23 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Universal 106 -12 -10.2% - - - - 16 29 20 The White Crow Sony Classics 69 -143 -67.5% - - - - 7 30 26 Amazing Grace (2019) Neon 59 -41 -41.0% - - - - 27 32 28 Tolkien Fox Searchlight 42 -52 -55.3% - - - - 5 33 36 Missing Link United Artists Releasing 27 -23 -46.0% - - - - 9 36 39 Unplanned Pure Flix 5 -22 -81.5% - - - - 11 37 86 Last Year at Marienbad (2019 re-release) Janus Films 1 -1 -50.0% - - - - 4
  13. If it does, it might manage to drop before Endgame in many theaters:)...but I think your numbers might be a touch too pessimistic:)...
  14. If I were guessing... Mysterio introduces the concept to the world, but he's a con artist and doesn't believe they exist... In a future MCU movie, Reed Richards follows the news of Mysterio and Spidey and thinks "wait, this could be real...if we can time travel, we surely can create and have more universes"...I mean, he is the time travel guru...and since he didn't get to play in that line, this one also makes a ton of sense... And bam, the FF's leader starts to drop into some of those other solo movies and gets the FF onscreen organically without yet another reboot and origin story...and through him, he eventually finds the X-Men...
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.