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TwoMisfits

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  1. If it makes $300M OS and $75M DOM, that would be $375M WW on a $175M production budget...and we have proclaimed many movies that have more than doubled their production budgets as "hits"...whether or not their ultimate financing deal breakdowns worked for/against them...
  2. I'll tell you Tuesday...but seeing the previews (as an RDJ fan), I get echoes of the humor and sarcasm of Iron Man...and I LOVED that character in the Avengers, and am happy to see it again with fake animals:)... I can't be the only mom who was willing to give in to kids for a bad movie b/c I figured there'd be something in the movie for me, too:)... PS - And don't forget, Dolittle is doing these numbers with NO kid movie discount...these numbers are huge for this type of non-Disney-made movie sans discount...last year, most of those movies struggled to high singles/low teens 3 days without the price draw... See the dregs of Dora, Angry Birds 2 (had price draw) Wonder Park (had a huge price draw), Dog's Way Home, Spies in Disguise, Little, A Dog's Journey, UglyDolls, The Kid Who Would be King, Missing Link...and Arctic Dogs:)...
  3. I agree - we lamented the dearth of $200-$300M movies last year...this year, we might be rolling in them by the end of the year:)...
  4. It won't be this one...Dolittle will probably at least match its budget WW...and there will definitely be at least one movie that won't this year...don't ask me which one yet:)... Although Monster Trucks is an example of a badly reviewed family comedy movie WITHOUT the big star...so you know how much RDJ is bringing to this one:)...
  5. Enormous and awesome number for BB3...and a very great "comeback from this week's press" for Dolittle from the doom and gloom...no, it won't turn a profit, but if that open is on point, it will sniff the high double digits domestic overall for its run (min), which is not easy for family movies...
  6. Those are actually spectacular scores from the parents and kids (4.5 stars each) for Dolittle, considering the critics...
  7. Yeah, I think Dolittle's presales and reviews helped hold the theaters...most places around me single-screened Dolittle...and TROS is on the bottom block at these theaters (so if it had gotten dual screens or more, TROS would have been the chopped movie)... PS - I also didn't realize 300 theaters had given up between week 3 and 4, so its total into week 5 drop is 1600ish:)...but still not 2000...thank a Dolittle:)...
  8. I'm thinking it will pass $20M for the 4 day, even with awful reviews (I do admit they have lowered my expectations...the lack of a ticket deal has also done the same b/c this movie screams for one)... From now til Feb 14, there are no family movies, so it has the chance to suck up those dollars between now and then...it's gonna be a wet, but not snowy weekend on the east coast this weekend, and between wet, cold, and 3 day weekend with nothing outside to do...it's a thing to do... Saturday matinees are selling decently, so it is showing the baseline family strength...
  9. I'm in for this on Tuesday, but I am gonna laugh if this exceeds expectations through family viewing this weekend:)... I am all in for Bad Boys 3 doing well (loved the 1st 2, and may have to put 3 on my schedule:)...
  10. Tale of 2 quarters - this game is absolute insanity. No idea what happened to Houston in 2nd quarter...but then again, no idea what happened to KC in 1st quarter:)...
  11. The AFC side of the playoffs is amazing...and it's still amazing that poor Andy can't ever get his teams to play in the playoffs...maybe they'll turn it around, but a 21-0 hole b/c of special teams and drops? Gonna be rough...
  12. See my previous post, but we'll agree to disagree...right now, 3 new movies are coming next weekend, b/c everything in my area is booking Weathering With You (surprise to see for me, b/c even my Regal is getting it, and they don't do subtitle movies...except this one)...tight market, tight screens, one movie dropping like a rock with a bad contract for theaters... Should be a fun Friday look at theater counts...
  13. So, why dropping TROS to small screens probably drops it out of small-midsize theaters (say 6-12s)... If you have 2 movies - Knives Out/Little Women and TROS, and you can only keep one on your 60 seater screen (b/c you booked 4 new movies last weekend with a 2 week hold, 3 new this upcoming weekend, and you're holding Jumanji no matter what)... You can only show TROS 4x a day at its run time...so you can sell a max of 240 tickets. You know you only keep 35% revenue on those tickets, and almost no one books the front row, so you'll never sell more than 80% of the tickets/screening to any holdover kept around this long. You can show the other 2 movies 5x a day...so you can sell a max of 300 tickets. Now, you know you're not likely to sell more than 1/2 the tickets for those seats, so you will see less even with more showings. But you keep 50% of the revenue. Assuming equal ticket prices ($10 to make it easy) Revenue to the theater - TROS = 240*.8*10*.35 = $672/day Revenue to the theater - Little Women/KO = 300 *.5 * 10 *.5 = $750/day And maybe you don't sell 50% of those tickets...but maybe you don't sell the max for TROS, either. The TROS number above is a max possible...and it doesn't require much performance from the other movies to do better for you...or at least break even... And you do have a subscriber base to satisfy, but you don't want movies to hang around that they might watch every day b/c that costs you...like a rabid Star Wars fan might do for TROS...
  14. 1917 might have been helped getting biggest size screens this weekend for prime Thursday/Friday/Saturday showings...seems many folks were reporting sell out 12-24 hours before those showings, so seats were left on the table this weekend...
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