TwoMisfits
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Posts posted by TwoMisfits
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OT: So to be a completionist for all 2023 supers, I watched The Marvels last night. It had 20 minutes of good movie in it. Unfortunately, it was a 92 minute movie that felt like 2 hours 15 minutes with the sheer amount of plot dumping (not seen since the Eternals, although I haven't started 2024 supers yet). I HATED the 1st 20 minutes and I disliked everything from the singing planet onward. But for that time in between, they had something...but totally lost it.
It's bottom tier for the year with Ant Man 3, Flash, and Blue Beetle (which almost squeaks out of the bottom tier b/c of their stellar opening act). I'd give it a D+...and won't be rewatching.
Still no more movies for a top 2023 movie list...not looking like I'll find even 10 worthy to turn in...but Oppy is on my list when I find a full day or 3 nights...which is gonna be rough with 1 week to go...
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Father's Day weekend would not be the worst date for this...
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10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
I’m not sure what Mother Cabrini is? But yes it could be competition but the Chosen eps are at a very low level too, so this is still a misfire.
(Mother) Cabrini is the follow up movie from the director of Sound of Freedom. Like SoF, it's not 100% religious, but instead is the true story of an Italian Catholic immigrant (Francesca Cabrini) who, after seeing the woeful conditions of the slums of NY, works to persuade the mayor of NYC to provide housing and healthcare for hundreds of orphaned children. It's being released on International Women's Day.
And, for Catholics, she is the 1st American saint.
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34 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Bad for both Ordinary Angels and Drive Away Dolls. I thought Ordinary Angels would get the religious folks to bump it up but no.
Mother Cabrini is in 2 weeks, and religious GA are like other GA - they aren't gonna spend for movies week after week, and you already have the Chosen episodes around to appeal to them as well.
So, it might be a case of too much religious stuff at too high a price...and if it's religious and those folks have to choose, they are gonna go with known quantities vs unknown ones...
That said, I have 2 free tickets for Sunday that I got on an Atom deal, so they did try to hype the movie in presales 2 weeks ago to build momentum (b/c if I see free tickets, I always grab them and then decide)...and I still might not go b/c the timing is bad. So, they did try to even bring folks in with free to get WOM and just knowledge of the movie out there...and it didn't really help b/c there's just too much for that tiny sliver of the market to support - they just don't go to the movies that often.
EDIT TO ADD: The free tickets were NOT pay it forward, but just regular free tickets that some low level horror movies also give. Limited to X amount and only in certain areas (b/c the movies with free tickets don't tend to open at every normal wide location), but totally free.
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7 hours ago, Porthos said:
Should also probably add that while Across the Spider-Verse was a CBM (and a sequel to boot) it still was an animated film and thus while it didn't have the same sales pattern as a standard kids-friendly/family film, it was still more backloaded than many similar CBMs.
Percentage of sales in last four days— Greater Sacramento Region [T-3 - T-0]
[between 9m and 30m — since May 2021]
If we cut this down to just 10m to 20m it becomes even clearer:
In the 10m to 20m range, Across the Spider-Verse had the largest amount of sales in the last four days of pre-sales for anything not named Minions 2 or Let There Be Carnage with nothing else being that close. Admittedly, The Flash at 9.7m is very close (58.78%), but AtSV nearly doubled The Flash's preview number which puts it in to context a bit more.
In general, the larger the preview number, the harder it is to have a large percentage at the end, which should make sense. Not impossible as Barbs still had over 50% of its sales on the MTWTh of release week. On the other hand, it's also the only one recently to get over 20m to clear it (for example, NWH is at 27.14% of sales in that time period) as it's just so much harder to keep growing at a sustained rate from a higher base.
Likewise, the smaller the preview number, the easier it is to have a large percentage at the end of pre-sales (again, for instance, The Marvels had 54.05% of its sales in the M-Th of release week, and, well...). That's why I put cutoffs at the 9m and then 10m range as it the point I'm making gets distorted if the preview number gets too low.
Another factor, which I didn't include, is length of pre-sales as, obviously, it's easier to have more sales at the end if sales haven't been going on for over a month. And of course things like holidays and review drops can also distort things a little.
But the overall patterns should still be clear. Or at least clear-ish.
Anyway, all of the above is to point out that while, yes, AtSV was a CBM it didn't have the sales pattern like one. Not completely, at any rate.
Spiderverse was a TMobile deal last year (if my memory is not faulty before my 1st coffee is done)...that usually holds down presales right before the deal comes live and then spikes them all the way through the weekend...it's not gonna be a good movie to use as a comp for that reason (same for Creed 3 and Wick 4, even though they are recent March movies)...
For now, Dune 2 has no TMobile deal coming...
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1 hour ago, Porthos said:
VERY IMPORTANT NOTE BENE:
When I day something like 90/325 wouldn't surprise me it's only because I can see the potential for it to absolutely catch fire. But the stars would have to align exactly right and it's not something I'm expecting. At all.
I suppose I am saying it'd have the be a really big outlier to actually surprise me.
Right, b/c $102M/$325M will be what Dune 2 does DOM. I've been trying to get Sean on this bandwagon for a month:)...
And to get this on presales, my PLF local did add the 2nd PLF screen to Dune's OW presales...so it's moving up showings/screens early like Barbie...although not as rapidly as Barbie...but we're getting there...
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19 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:
I mean Loki got beat by Thor and was still the main villain of Avengers. It wouldnt even have been the same Kang. Kang being beatable was never the point, he isn't unbearable, there's just literally billions of him. Kang isn't invincible, but a single earth stopping every single Kang is the challenge.
Then the ending of Ant Man should have been Ant Man defeating Kang 1, while getting blindsided by a Kang 2, who tsks tsks that Kang 1 couldn't handle a little bug all by himself (and Cassie still getting home)...if you are gonna go that arc (they aren't invincible, but when they start popping in to help, they get pretty dang like that), then you go that arc and set up the whole thing...
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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:
Regarding Dune, beyond just previews, its friday sales are on par with Oppenheimer and even Maverick. its stronger than last Jurassic movie. Weird thing is even Barbie did not look so strong at this point. But it went on a overdrive from this point went from a 100m opener to a 165m finish. Let us see how things go next week that will give us a strong indication on finish. It will not have any capacity issues of Oppeneheimer and has all PLF and so will end up with ATP higher than most movies. Only Avatar 2 would be higher due to high 3D ratio. but at similar point in presales, Dune is lower in ticket sales/gross than A2 but higher ATP.
Edit: A2 comps across the weekend puts it at 95m OW. I will take that for sure. 😀
Umm, see I've been trying for weeks to get Sean to join the triple digit club, so let's see about knocking that up another $5M+:)...
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38 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
The power of $5 tickets on date night week (as someone mentioned, it grew and grew and grew all week - that's the TMobile/Atom effect - more and more GA folks say, what the hey, it's $5, I'll go b/c I'm bored today)...well done, Paramount, on providing the GA lift...
And if it's like Beekeeper, by getting that initial audience buy in, you may spur future adult buyers to see it with WOM...
The 2 movie wins of the year so far - both TMobile deals. I'll let you know what the next one is (and if I think it will matter). For now, there isn't one coming...
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21 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
So, ummm, I said $46M on Wed in the weekday thread as my back-of-the-napkin work...do I win a prize:)...
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1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:
Meanwhile, Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web did $2.15M on Thursday, -64% for a two-day of $8.2M. It could still get to $20M, but, man, oh, man, those audience scores are rough. Two stars on PostTrak so far for a 58% from general audiences. Overall 53% guys attending to 47% women. For some reason parents (mostly dads at 62%) and kids under 12 saw a different movie: They both gave it 4 1/2 stars. Madame Web is nesting at 4,103 locations.
https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-bob-marley-one-love-madame-web-1235828289/
I will say, Aquaman 2 had similar feedback. Comic fans hated it, and GA families loved it.
So, this may or may not drop off a cliff. Aquaman 2 didn't. Instead, it kinda thrived after OW...
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11 hours ago, leoh said:
I think you may get way closer than you think to OL VDay.
People forget that besides the 3500 locations capacity, OL tickets are basically only conventional screenings plus half of Dolby Cinema halls (around 80, the other ~50% is with Madame Web). Plus many of those tickets costed only 5 euros due to T mobile promotion. Then… all things considered OL might not be as big as it seems to be, although double digits is inevitable.
Here's the thing on the TMobile promotion. Someone - TMobile, Atom, the studio, etc - is paying the rest of the ticket price to theaters (or at least a negotiated increased price), so the box office revenue per $5 ticket is higher than $5.
This is why theaters overbook for the $5 deals.
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23 minutes ago, Eric Web said:
Tried to find some potential comps for other movies that also opened on V-Day on Wednesday. Ultimately, 2018 didn't have anything, and the only other option is 2007. So...
If Bob Marley follows Daddy's Little Girls: 49.2M 6-Day
If it follows Music and Lyrics: 61.81M 6-Day
Okay, neither of those will happen, and keyserzose's data suggests it's still going to be super frontloaded. But this didn't have that Pay It Forward BS to inflate numbers, so we should be okay for this not being as egregious as Color Purple? I dunno. This is honestly really hard to pin down.
Off the cuff numbers with almost no thought...
$12M Wed
$4M Thurs
$8M Fri
$10M Sat
$7M Sun
$5M Mon
$46M 6 day - I'd say Daddy's Little Girls is highly possible...
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6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
So how high Marley can go. I am now thinking its crossing 250K+ at MTC1 and ATP should take it above 3.5m. That would low double digits if its previews like Multi with a heavy MTC1 skew. But looking at rest of the reports and one time MTC2 data I got, its not skewing that bad. Plus wednesday full day ratios should go lower. I am now thinking 13m ish OD could happen with good walkups today.
Ironically looking at how crazy final 2 days of Presales went, reminds me of another wednesday opener in Mario !!! if I dare to comp the above projections to Mario finish, Marley is looking at 15m OD. LOL. I think that is a huge LEAP. But hitting teen OD is not for sure.
In this economy, a $10 all-in date to a movie with nice sexy music and a 13-45 male/female on your arm is golden. This is about the biggest hit a TMobile code will probably get...well, except when they've had the deal for the huge blockbusters (like Spidey last year)...and it will help all 6 days, so we could be looking at a nice 6 day...
PS - Sony/Madame Web should have gone to TMobile and offered to be in on the deal for either movie...missed opportunity for them to share the wealth
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2 hours ago, Krissykins said:
Ooh which days can those be used? What’s the % of those codes that are actually used?
No idea on %, but it seems that movies that skew 13-45 male and are borderline movies (tired sequels, "maybe I'll see that", etc) do best with the deal...like Margaret last year got NO help...
They can be used starting tomorrow for any day sales are open...and normally must be purchased by the end of Sunday...
Normally, they have as much effect on elevating a movie as holding down competition...
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49 minutes ago, vafrow said:
One Love, T-3, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener
Total Sales: 763
New Sales: 122
Growth: 19%
Theatres tracked: MTC4
Total theatres: 5
Showtimes: 20
Radius: 19 km
Tickets per showtime: 38.2
Comps
0.863x of FNAF for $8.9M
2.238 of Madame Web for ($14.9M)*
2.362x HG:BoSS for $14.7M
*Using estimate based on comps
Average: $12.4M
Still marching along.
I asked this question yesterday, but, I'll throw it up here again. Has anyone heard of any specific organization around this film to make it a big group event, or is this front loading all organic. With TCP , there were church groups booking up theatres from what I understand, that contributed to that first day gross. Is there anything similar here?
As far as I know, there is no national group buying for this effort.
Valentine's Day just really is a big movie going day for movies.
And I'm actually surprised at how high the buying is, with 80M $5 tickets codes coming online Tuesday through Atom/TMobile...
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So...I found the trailer in the meh category like others.
I haven't changed my mind on Deadpool's potential.
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45 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:
There’s no way Lisa Frankenstein did $700000 on Thursday previews and then did just 1 million on true Friday
It probably rolled in its $5 mystery movie Monday showings to Thursday, too.
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1 minute ago, Krissykins said:
Yikes! Just as pointless as a release as Soul.
There is no point releasing a kid movie available on streaming for any more than $2/ticket. $1-$2 is the summer kid movie price. That's what families would pay, knowing they've got popcorn costs also coming.
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8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Bob Marley MTC1
VD - 55415/453958 836857.61 2912 shows +7252
Friday - 8832/384880 135658.22 2296 shows +902
Weird the pace went down a bit today. May be the reviews actually boosted the number yesterday or bad reviews brought the pace down today. Still solid number overall for VD.
$5 tickets coming Tuesday usually holds down this timeframe (the 1-3 days before they come on)...
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2 minutes ago, M37 said:
A non-zero chance this becomes the lowest grossing weekend post-COVID (since Memorial Day 2021), and will certainly land somewhere in bottom 4
Weekend = Top 10 / Total
1. Jan 28, 2022 = $30.5 / $35.0M
2. Dec 9, 2022 = $33.3 / $37.7M
3. Sept 24, 2001 = $35.8 / $38.8M
4. Sept 9, 2022 = $33.9 / $43.1M
5. Dec 10, 2021 = $40.8 / $43.9M
Only two other weekends, 1/21/22 and 9/17/21 failed to reach $50M in aggregate, none in all of 2023
February 2022 had the Uncharted breakout ($148M), plus Dog ($62M), Jackass ($58), and Death on Nile ($46M) to help breathe some life into the numbers before Batman, but this year we have ... Marley and Madame, a Demon Slayer film, Ordinary Angels and episode releases of Chosen. Gonna be a boring time until Dune II
A Demon Slayer film that is just shows stitched together - which is still getting 3 presale screens at my one of my locals b/c things will be dire that weekend...
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12 hours ago, filmlover said:
Early weekend projections:
Argylle: $6.6M
Lisa Frankenstein: $4M
The Beekeeper/Wonka: $3.3M
Migration: $3M
Box Office:'Argylle' Leading Low Weekend As Super Bowl Takes Toll (deadline.com)
This is looking to be a horrific overall weekend DOM BO-wise. Deadline didn't put an overall number, except below $52.6M.
With the numbers above, would we be looking at around $30M-$35M total BO for the weekend? If so, this would be a post-Covid era/post-2021 low, right? Jan 22 had Spidey at $34.7M for one of its weekends, so I guess that's the over/under...
Edit to Add: Damn, M37, great minds think alike at the same time this morning...
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14 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:
NOT the animated one? What the heck? They are gonna try to have an ongoing animated AND live action Moana release with 24 months of each other? And some say you can't see issues at the "concept" stage - this is another fail at that stage, approving 2 concepts with the same character for the same time frame...and splitting your team across both...
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4 minutes ago, vafrow said:
Kung Fu Panda 4 is up for sale on MTC4.
I likely won't do a track on it, and if I do, I'll wait until after Valentine's Day.
Single screen presales (5 and 4 showings, each including 1 3d) at my 2 locals. It is not being presold as an expected animated breakout - aka, even at the family chain, this film will need to presell to get more space before opening week - it's not just being given it.
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Weekend Thread | Est. Bob Marley $13.5M, Demon Slayer $11.58M, Ordinary Angels $6.5M, Madame Web $6.0M, Migration $3.0M, Argylle $2.8M, Wonka $2.54M, Drive Away Dolls $2.4M, The Beekeeper $1.96M
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by TwoMisfits
So, posting the Deadline Friday numbers...
One Love $3.6M F / $13.4M W
Demon Slayer $5M F (with previews) / $9-10M W
Ordinary Angels $2.3M F (with previews) / $6M W
Madame Web ?? F / $5M W
Migration $700K F / $3.5M W
Drive Away Dolls $1M F (with previews) / $2.5M W
Edit to Add - Overall, it looks like a DOM Top 10 around $50M and a total market around $60-$70M...