TwoMisfits
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Posts posted by TwoMisfits
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7 minutes ago, M37 said:
#WonderWoman flexed more muscle than WB expected SUN dipping only 16% from SAT vs 28% estimate. $103M+ opening wknd, bright road ahead.https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/871712677885816832
Feeling better about the 2nd weekend club now:)...knew that drop was way overestimated (although $2.5M+ - they weren't close:)...
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1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:
Watching A Few Good Men
Just a note that Tom Cruise is busy doing the Mummy retread with fucking Alex Kurtzman instead of making great dramas like this
On my list of favorite movies of all time! Maybe I need to pull out my DVD and watch this again!
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5 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:
Oh well I legitimately love it ( If Power Rangers is number two that means one of two movies behind it guys
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I did give it a solid B and it FAR exceeded expectations...not sure I loved it, but I don't think I, as a Mom who literally never watched the show before and was dragged along by fan kids, was the main target audience!:) And those kids did give it an A+...
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4 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:
Power Rangers is the second best movie I've seen so far this year
It is for me as well...but I've only seen 4 movies in theaters (Lego Batman, Power Rangers, Baywatch, and Smurfs: TLV)...it'd probably be further down my 2017 list after I get some Netflix watching in on the earlier releases, and after I see Wonder Woman Tuesday!!:)
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So, for those who think WW reaching 3.0x is impossible b/c reasons (pretty much, it's a CBM, they don't do that)...here's why I think it has a good possibility...
1. The market this year has been uber-light for movies to take your 6+ year old girls. Why did I think B&TB would hit $400M+ even before it opened? One, it was a wildly beloved movie that everyone was begging for...but more important 2. what the heck were families gonna take their girls to? The only competitive movie that girls would like after B&TB opened was Boss Baby and that DID indent B&TB - it was like the only movie that did. It's like how everyone was surprised that Everyone, Everyone has been a mild hit - again, B&TB was practically gone from theaters - what else are they gonna see?
1a. Now look at the next 2 months...Cars 3 is a boy-based movie property, Captain Underpants is a boys-appealing movie property, Spiderman will be a more male appealing property, Transformers - boys, Mummy - boys. Rough Night, Girls trip - yeah, not for the under 18. Baby Driver, Dunkirk, Valerian - boys. There is literally no other movie coming for this set except DM3. If you wonder why I've been high on both movies all summer, this is the biggest reason. I can take my boys and girls to both movies and they'll love them. Same for finally Emoji movie, which if good enough will probably surprise. I mean, it's the summer. When it rains or they are on vacation, families go to movies. The only movie that will dent WW to a big degree is gonna be DM3...Spiderman will not dent it as much as supers normally dent supers...
2. The movie is a 4 quadrant hit that has been deemed family friendly (not all supers are). Families are telling families it's okay to go. I told a bunch of families yesterday after my comic book store manager had taken his 10 year old boy who loved it as much as he did...when it's PG-13, a lot of families need to "check 1st" before taking the plunge...they now know it's okay.
3. Its movie time length - it caused less overall showings per screen this weekend, leading to almost all sell outs here and the need to keep adding shows...so demand can't be met b/c the screens just aren't there. Played eventually in 2d 3-4 weeks from now, this will just keep playing and playing...
4. The X factor of new audience - my sis told me yesterday she's gonna buy tickets soon. As an art house goer, she hasn't gone to a single supers movie all year or probably in the last 5 years...but she supports female directors and stars...so she wants to put her money in the till to encourage it...this film, b/c of its quality and deft advertising hand, may be able to avoid the traps Ghostbusters hit last year while getting all the fans Ghostbusters wanted...it's a movie for "all", not for "some" and has avoided politics of any side to an almost complete degree, and that's crucial for long legs...
But, I could be totally wrong...I just don't see "well, this is a CBM, it can't do that, you're nuts" as an argument when this is a CBM not done before...just like Deadpool was a CBM not done before last year in a different way...
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17 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
Let's assume this hits the high end at 103M this weekend:
Remainder of the week: 34M (137M Total)
Jun 9: 46M (17M weekdays, 200M Total)
Jun 16: 23M (10M weekdays, 233M Total)
Jun 23: 12.6M (6M weekdays, 251.6M Total)
Jun 30: 6.3M (4M weekdays, 261.9M Total)
Jul 7: 2.8M (1.3M weekdays, 266M Total)
Jul 14: 1.6M (800k weekdays, 268.4M Total)
Final Total: 271M (2.63x)
June 16th weekend drop way too high...this will be a huge Father's Day draw movie for folks who don't want a 3rd Cars...
Seeing the growth of the movie through the weekend around here, I think legs are not gonna mimic typical male-focused CBM, but will be a mix of female movies with CBM legs (so 3.0 is not impossible)...it won't be Bad Moms, but it won't be what you've got...I'd bet you over $271M right now...
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Okay, my local started the weekend with 12 planned showings of WW...made it 13 at the last minute for Friday, started Saturday with 16 (after finding a full extra screen Friday night) and put on a 17th last minute last night, and now added an extra show this morning for 18 showings for WW for Sunday. I love how this movie keeps growing and growing!!! We'll see if my local tries to scrounge up some evening shows to make it a round 20 shows!
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Local just added a 17th show for WW today in last 30 minutes (this is the theater that started the weekend planning for just 12 showings/day)...it is for an hour from now, and already only has 1 row left...
Wonder if they'll try for one more...
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4 minutes ago, Blankments said:
Gotta say tho, I don't like BvS, but whether you like or hate the movie, if you insult Eisenberg's brilliant performance I'm coming after you. Literally the only part of that movie that's super special and a hallmark of the genre
Nails on a chalkboard...his redeeming quality is that you hoped someone would kill him so he'd leave the screen:)...maybe that is a positive since he was the villain!
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I think this movie will play closer to B&TB for the weekend vs a normal SH movie...so those predicting a great Saturday shouldn't be poo-pooed as illogical if they expect this play...B&TB only dropped 1.7% from full Friday and then 23% Sunday...so to say no drop is not that crazy a predict b/c another family targeted movie hitting all 4 quadrants (but speaking to girls most) just did it...
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So, looks like I'm 1 for 2 again if estimates hold...that means I can flip a coin against everyone's bets each week and stay right in the 700s for the duration:)...
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19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
Good Lord at those holds for Wimpy Kid, Snatched, and King Arthur. Nothing indicated Wimpy Kid would drop that much
Whose showings do you think got stolen for WW and CU - my local has exactly 1 showing left on Saturday for KA, 2 for Diary, and 3 for Snatched (and the other has 2 for KA, 3 for Wimpy, and 3 for Snatched)...it seems all 3 movies got stuck sharing 1 screen (and 1 1/2 at the other) thanks to the new openers...
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Watching BO from this area for years, I have my own "estimates of BO" based on my area's performance and screen allocation. I know one theater (or the 3 that I track - the mall has too many showings tonight for me to keep clicking to) is not 4100, but they are trends...this is selling like hotcakes, and when showings get added and added last minute and screens start dropping in for Sat/Sun, that's huge...that's not an $80M opening unless my area is a huge outlier. It hasn't been this hot since B&TB's weekend, since GOTG2 was already set at max screens. B&TB was underestimated and got added screens and showings all through the weekend here...
This is no B&TB (b/c that actually started with more screens and showings and just kept getting more), but it's not a movie making only $20M more than Pirates last weekend.
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There is no way Gitesh's numbers are right...there are no tickets left at my locals for the rest of the night (each showing has 5 tickets or less left)...and it's 8:37pm...I'm waiting to see if they add on even more showings at 11pm or later to try to get some late night drop ins...
If my area is at all indicative...selling out every showing with 1 screen is a $50M weekend...every showing with 2 screens is $100M...with 2+ screens now (and more on the weekend days), this is $100M+, unless this movie is only turning out the coasts (since Tele says the West is good...and I'm on the East)...
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Local just added an extra 10:31pm showing for WW tonight...other local added an extra 7:30pm showing, so they both added a showing at the last minute today...hope the trend continues tomorrow...
EDIT: And in better news, one of the two locals gave it another full screen starting Saturday (made this change in last hour)...this theater will now have 16 showings, not 12 for Saturday and Sunday...
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23 minutes ago, JennaJ said:
Eh. So Suicide Squad isn't a superhero movie then?
No, they are not superheros...villains can headline a movie as successfully as heroes (I hear Pirates aren't the most heroic lot, either)...
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1 minute ago, cory said:
Supergirl 1984 was the first.
Now that one...I even forgot existed...that one was horrible!:). So, WW is #2:)...but really, that Supergirl was a tv movie-esque version (they couldn't have tried harder than that with that awful movie:)...
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6 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:
It's not, actually. Catwoman and Elektra happened, as much as we want to forget them. Obviously WW has much more going for it than those films, but it being the first female-led superhero film is factually wrong. It's merely the first well-received female-led superhero movie.
No, it's technically true. Both of these characters were originally villains in their origin story, so WW is technically the 1st true female-led superhero (vs reformed villain, anti-hero, etc)...
EDIT: Forgot the awful Supergirl, so this is #2:)...
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So, in 2 hours, we've gone from $85M to $100M...just need $20M-$30M more over the next 12 hours:)...we've got time to see it keep climbing...
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1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:
BVS was slightly sub 6 but it opened on Good Friday (school's out and some work). SS was about 6.5 - but it has the T-Mobile free ticket previews that probably front loaded it- as well as being summer.
SS also had a 25% Rotten Tomatoes rating...with BvS at 27%...
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I'm happy with $11M...12x-13x multiplier puts this right on my high-$130s guess. Dr Strange's multiplier would be my expected basement multiplier of 9x+...so I think $100M is the floor, but I'm hoping the NBA was popular and that families are coming out to this (I'm also hoping my theaters add a few last minute prime time showings b/c I think demand is there with almost no tickets but bad ones available Saturday except for twilight and 10pm or later showings)...
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WW will be fine...just did a quick check of the 10am cheapo showings at my locals (Fri/Sat/Sun) and the pricey 7pmish night shows for Fri/Sat/Sun - they are all almost virtual sellouts (with either just front row or front 2 rows left)...that's what big movies do:)...Heck, my discount Tuesday 7pm show only has about 50 seats left out of 200...I'm gonna have an excited packed house to enjoy the movie and I can't wait:)...
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Another WW Thursday showing posted to my local just an hour ago - now up to 7 showings...dang, that's a good sign...
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It is selling at my locals...I think legs are a certainty for this - I don't see Cars 3 denting it too much in 2 weeks...may open to the smaller side, but openings aren't the be-all and end-all for 1st-time animated movies (aka, the non-sequels:)...
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
For those wondering if anyone else still wants to watch WW or if it's heading for a really low IM, my local cheap Tuesday theater has 15 seats left for my 7:30pm Tuesday showing and has SOLD OUT the 6:30pm Tuesday showing already...so not everyone got a chance to get in on the fun this weekend:)...