TwoMisfits
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Posts posted by TwoMisfits
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6 hours ago, Olive said:
I bet that Wonder Woman's total domestic OW is under 120M (100 points, 2 people)
My theaters have upped showings to 3 screens (local) and 4 screens (mall) and are selling Thursday like hotcakes (or like GOTG 2)...so I'm gonna put my money where my mouth has been for months and take this one...tracking be damned (killed me on Baywatch, so maybe it will reverse on WW:)...WW over $120M OW...
aka I'll take this bet:).
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38 minutes ago, filmlover said:
It's getting rejected to the smallest theaters around here too. Fully expecting it to be down to 2 shows a day at most theaters (in addition to most of the smaller chains dropping it at the drop of a hat) next weekend followed by a really brutal theater loss on the following frame (the packed June 16 weekend).
Baywatch plays well at night, which few family movies do...so it will hang around longer than expected, even with just all evening showings (split with CU for example, once Cars 3 comes out - it's not like Cars 3 will need late showings)...
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15 minutes ago, a2knet said:
SMURFS 3
Domestic Box Office $43,711,826 International Box Office $141,793,838 Worldwide Box Office $185,505,664 Took the kids today for $2/Tuesday...was an okay movie...passed the time enjoyably. I gave it a C+, since "the care bear stare" equivalent isn't exactly a plot climax answer to rely on...but the movie wasn't made for me...
My kids said "good for a kid movie, 8 out of 10, A-, and great" in age order...so, I'm not surprised this made money and was profitable, even if it took a worldwide save...
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Little leery on screen allocation still for the movies opening...more for CU than WW...
WW is getting 2 screens on local and 3 at the mall...every screen seems to equal $50M max here, so if it doesn't change (and they don't start spiking showings of other movies for more WW, which happens), I'm sticking to my $130s prediction. To beat GOTG by $1 this summer, I expect it needs to open within $10M of it, so I'm gonna go with $138M for this OW (and hope it actually hits GOTG's $146M:).
As for CU, the mall finally gave it screens...and it gave it one for presales. One local gave it a split 2d/3d screen and the other theater gave it nothing still...this is not a way to open big. So, (unless screens change), I'm gonna go with a $30M opening (with actuals probably missing that number:)...this movie should not be having this kind of screen issue and not getting placed 2 days to opening night, but it is, and that's gonna hurt it...
EDIT: WW now has 4 screens at the mall and 3 at local...better news for my picks:)...
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6 minutes ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:
I bet two people 50 points Pirates drops under 60% this weekend
I'll take Pirates...
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I'm gonna wait on my picks b/c my locals have not put any screens towards CU yet and they have only put 3 screens (mall) / 1 1/2 screens (local) for Wonder Woman and I can't judge the films til I know how the theaters are gonna book them. When my locals only give 1 screen, it seems like $50M is the absolute max a film can make, and I'm worried CU may get that treatment (or worse with a split for 3d, which would hold down its opening further). Not to mention, only 1 1/2 and 3 screens for WW is gonna also hold down the opening more than I'd like to guesstimate for it.
I'm hoping they drop some GOTG and Aliens screens for these movies (or drop some old movies), but we'll see...
Although it won't be good for CU presales to literally have no way to buy tickets for this weekend at my 3 closest theaters...hopefully, Monday they get booked...
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1 minute ago, grey ghost said:
The reboot cycle gets shorter and shorter.
It went from 25 years to every 4-8 years.
But it might lengthen again if those new reboots fail...just like we might see less 5quels soon:)...
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4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
Hot take: both Alien and POTC will have another film.
In about 25 years as a rebooted attempt at a new series when Hollywood is farming the aughts for film ideas...
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22 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Yup. And, this is represented via metacritic in their scores there.
But no regular GA reads that when they are buying Fandango tickets - they see one thing - the RT %...
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I think people are seeing a disconnect on average vs bad movies...not that they think either of this weekend's movies were the Godfather...
A number of people have said Pirates 5 is much better than 4...and yet they scored the same 32%...
For me, Baywatch is a solid B movie, since it's got some real flaws that it did not overcome even with some great humor scenes...and something like BvS (since that came up) was an F movie...but somehow Baywatch is at 19% and BvS is 28%...so it's a disconnect in the scores that I think the studios are unhappy with.
Both Baywatch and Pirates should have probably hit the middling range of scores (45-55), but neither came close...and people see just the overall critics number and say "wow, that's really bad...not just average"...when in fact, both movies are probably average for what the expectations of the movies should have been. Neither are awards bait, nor Citizen Kane...
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Just now, YSLDC said:
The Rock knows his movie is opening agaisnt Wonder Woman, right?
Baywatch the show was a phenomenon worldwide though...http://www.huffingtonpost.com/abhishek-seth/how-baywatch-unknowingly-changed-the-world_b_3891368.html. It was probably dumb to not open worldwide 1st, b/c the show was always bigger there than here...
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3 minutes ago, baumer said:
Yes you and me both LOL Although we are lucky that alien and Baywatch were taken by almost everybody in the game to finish in the top 15.
Not in the game, but I wouldn't count out either movie yet...we still don't know how high or low this summer might go...and both movies could end up right on the edge of in or out, since #15 is unlikely to be a $100M movie and both these movies will get all their BO to count by Labor Day where many other possible (especially August movies) will only have 2/3-3/4 of their eventual BO count...
I mean $75M is still attainable for both (more for Aliens than Baywatch, but new comedies tend to be leggy, even with bad openings)...
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1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:
Because the Pirates franchise is less front loaded by nature than the X-Men franchise.
That's because no one actually bothers to remember that Ninjago is coming out
The Pirates franchise USED to be less front-loaded...as we've seen from mutliple sequeled franchises, they become more and more about the fans and less about the GA...and this movie seems pretty set up as a fan only piece...no one is saying "GA, you'll get something out of this"...
I mean Aliens used to draw GA, too...
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1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:
Pirates isn't going below Apocalypse
B/c it has so much less competition coming in the next few weeks than Apocalypse did?
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Well, I win one casino bet easily and lose the other easily...guess you can't be perfect:)...
I think the BO starts its turn around next weekend, but I wouldn't go TOO high on estimates...I see Father's Day play for both movies and good summer weekdays, so people aren't gonna rush quite like they normally do, especially if there isn't monetary reason to do it...so caution on high end numbers, especially still theater and screen counts are out is probably good (my locals still haven't decided on CU and it's Sunday)...
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So, what's it gonna take to be the #5 movie this summer? Here's the last few (and this takes in all BO, not just through Labor Day, so the BO total for our summer games will probably be a little lower)...
2016 - Jason Bourne $162.4M
2015 - Mission Impossible RN $195.0M
2014 - Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $208.5M
2013 - Fast and Furious 6 $238.6M
2012 - Madagascar 3 $216.3M
All those stressing that all these May movies are probably missing Top 15...yeah, they probably mostly are...BUT they might not, looking at past summers and the big drop offs from #4 to #5-#15...and we've been falling, not really rising, for values to hit those #5-#15 spots...
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7 minutes ago, YourMother said:
It is based of a book, but Disney hasn't made a Wrinkle in Time movie in the past.
Disney didn't, but it has been a tv movie...it shouldn't be too hard to bring something newer and to be better than a tv movie, but time will tell...
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4 minutes ago, That One Valerian said:
It's not original, it's based on a novel
Original meaning non-sequel/non-remake - it was the 1st time made on a screen...maybe I should say "new":)...but then every movie is technically "new"...
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3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:
there is a lower than projection trend ongoing since FF8....
The march's release were all ended up higher than projection, but starting from FF8, everything has changed.....
hope wonder woman on next week could revert this trend
March was the climax of the Atom/Fandango discount "fights"...they ended March 31 and now we've just had some random discounts here and there (back then Atom let you stack BOGOs and $5 codes, so people were seeing movies for almost nothing). I don't think that's a coincidence...now how much it helped the Feb/Mar movies and how much the movies themselves helped (being better audience and critically rated, having more balance in the industry, etc) is still TBD:)...
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7 hours ago, babz06 said:
Everything,Everything is gonna end up being a cute solid hit. Probably finishes with around 35-40m.
Only original non-comedy wide release in a month...not too surprising:)...and good for it!
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Keeping sanity on the Baywatch "disaster" - lousy opening...but probably enough to make the film money (or break even, without WW doing anything special). So calling it a disaster is compared to our box office expectations, not its profitability...
I mean, Pirates cost at least 3x (and probably 4x) Baywatch (depending what Baywatch and Pirates numbers you believe), so it needs to open as such...it is gonna do about that, so both movies becomes "ehhh" not "wows"...
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1 hour ago, baumer said:
I thought it was quite funny. Rock and Zac were great and theres the right amount of eye candy.
Best part was the chubby kid. He kinda stole a few scenes.
Yeah, he did - he made some of the amazing comic moments all by himself...I don't even know who that actor is, but I think I will soon:)...
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Really solid B movie - critics were out to lunch on this one.
Both my spouse and I would recommend it to anyone looking for a good, fun time who is not easily offended.
Some of the funniest comedic scenes on film that I've seen, wonderfully true to the source material while being updated to 2017, and great chemistry and acting, especially between Efron and Johnson...and great cameos:)...they make up for some tonal roughness, some times of too much serious, some flat jokes, and some interesting music choices...
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Just saw Baywatch - yeah, critics are crazy!
Review from myself and my husband - we both give the movie a solid B. Some of the funniest scenes we have ever seen on film, wonderfully true to the original source material yet updated to 2017, the actors and actresses shined, especially Johnson and Efron together - they worked...and the cameos:)...
The only flaws - it had some tonal shifts that were rough, it got a little too serious at times, some jokes fall flat, and the music wasn't always to our taste (which makes sense b/c we aren't 20 anymore:)...
I'd recommend it to anyone looking for a good, fun time who isn't easily offended.
It deserved better and hopefully, it is doing better...crowd was laughing loudly throughout...
And as for previews - the ones which got the most response were Girls Trip and The House's last trailer scene (silent til that one, but wow, that one was pretty funny:)...
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Real sales I have time to add...one local added 2 more showings for tonight overnight...this is a good sign for the movie when it starts to grab other movies' screens last minute...
One local (added 2 showings for 6 total)
3d (3 showings) 74/100, 0/100 (added), 26/100
2d (3 showings) 90/100, 6/100 (added), 64/100
2nd local (4 showings)
3d (2 showings) 46/108, 13/108
2d (2 showings) 128/175, 51/175
Right now, for Friday, these locals have 12 and 13 showings...if they add more last minute tonight, I'll post again:)...