Deedlit

Interesting - assuming Endgame finishes with 850 million, TDK admissions would mean an average ticket price of nearly $12. That seems a little high. Do you mind showing us your calculations?

It will have grossed about $205M on 12/28 - 1/3 for a total of $745M. A 50% drop the next week would add another $102.5M for $847.5, then 40% drops from then on would add about another $153.75 for $1001.25M. Those are of course very round drops, in all likelihood it will drop more next week but less the following week (MLK weekend), which cancels out to an extent. Overall, I still think it gets to a billion.

BOM (or was it The-Numbers?) used to have more Star Wars data, which showed the movie slowing to a dribble at $219 million. So ~220M seems right. The data is now missing, I know not why. According to http://www.in70mm.com/news/2003/star_wars/ (I can't get inserting links to work), The first release lasted all the way until the second, but the second one lasted just 16 weeks, leading to a total of 265.1 million. So the "first release" can be either 220M or 265.1M, but it can't be 307M - Star Wars was not in theatres continuously for over 4 years straight.

BOM adjusts TDK to 74.4M admissions, but it doesn't accout for IMAX, which might lower TDK to around 73M admissions maybe? $10.40 seems high. What were your ticket prices for the various formats again? I seem to recall that you had data from Wall Street Journals up to a certain point, then assumed an annual 3% increase - which seems to have a problem since that outpaces the increase for the average annual ticket prices across all formats, which is the most accurate data we have.

I guess it will take another week to convince you. (When TFA actually passes Avatar )

Anything over 30M would be a tremendous hold, in my opinion.

Yes. Jurassic World did it in 13 days, for SW7 it will be either 11 or 12, depending on if it made it on Saturday. (It looks like it will be VERY close.)

Wut, less than 3 months after opening day. Disney really doesn't care about extended runs.

I'm guessing Disney will want to release the Bluray and DVD while the iron is hot, and won't care about losing some gross in the process. As I recall, early video releases likely cost Frozen some money, particularly in Japan.

I'm thinking 48M. SW7 will have rather inflated second and third weeks (meaning 12/21-1/3) due to the holiday season, and that goes away the following week. I expect a drop worse than JW on the fourth weekend. It should drop better after that, but some damage will have been done. In the end it will do better than JW, but I'm thinking 1-1.2B. Rth only deals in absolutes.

Assuming a 58M Saturday, it would need a 9% drop or better to pass 160M, so it will probably fall just a bit short.

Woah, that's confidence!

It needs about 210M after this weekend, should get there after another weekend but not by Friday. So Jan 2-3.

I think 60 million was Disney's early estimate, and Rth started at 63-65. (Could be wrong though.)