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Everything posted by AN9815
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I know it's all doom and gloom now at the box office, and it will probably continue with Indiana Jones underperforming, but I think Mission Impossible, Barbie and Oppenheimer can do quite well in July with all three matching or exceeding expectations. I'm also not that pessimistic about the rest of the year. I think November looks like the best month that's left (minus July) and December, although much weaker than previous years, it will have some decent numbers for Wonka (+$175m), Aquaman 2 (+$200m) and Migration (+$150m). I am expecting Aquaman 2 to significantly drop from the first but I still think it will crawl past 200m DOM and 600m WW with holidays.
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I'm not saying the movie will be bad, in fact I have high hopes for this but I cannot say if a movie will be good or bad until it releases. I thought Quantumania looked good and IMO it turned out as one of the worst Marvel movies to date. What I am trying to say is that this movie is being targeted on social media by trolls claiming it will suck and unfortunately it will probably be review bombed. A similar thing happened with The Little Mermaid. The amount of hate movies like this receive is beyond comprehension to me but people have a lot of free time I guess. Also we don't have to be very smart to see why movies like this or TLM get review bombed and others don't. I just realized this is not the The Marvels thread so I will end my discussion here.
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The Little Mermaid is doing pretty well DOM, unfortunately not OS but it is mainly because of Asia rejection. It is keeping it pretty close to Aladdin domestically but probably won't match Aladdin's late legs, which were amazing, so something like $300-325m at the end. One thing I am seeing, particularly for this movie, is how little people know about the box office outside of this forum. I've seen multiple people say TLM is an absolute disaster or TLM is a massive hit depending on whatever number they want to pick and compare it to whatever number they want. I saw someone comparing TLM WW total as of now to Beauty and the Beast OW and how because it is higher it will reach a billion. Similarly, I've seen people say it won't reach $400m WW because of China's drop...
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This was one of the best Disney Live-Actions so far. Maybe I am a bit biased because The Little Mermaid is my favorite WDAS movie but I thought this was pretty good all things considered. Maybe not as fun as Aladdin but pretty entertaining. Halle was fantastic in this and gave Ariel so much personality, also her voice is outstanding and that made the songs so emotional. I also thought Jonah Hauer-King was pretty great as Prince Eric and actually improved over the original with the new song and the backstory, his chemistry with Halle was excellent. King Triton and Ursula were kind of just there, not bad not great, kinda wish they would have expanded Ursula's role a bit more as I thought Melissa McCarthy did a good job with what she was given. The sidekicks were fun and kind of grew on me as the movie progressed. Ranking of Disney Live Actions (Haven't seen Peter Pan and Wendy): 1. Aladdin 2. The Little Mermaid 3. The Jungle Book 4. Cinderella 5. Maleficent 6. Beauty and the Beast 7. Cruella 8. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 9. The Lion King 10. Alice in Wonderland 11. Dumbo 12. Mulan 13. Lady and the Tramp 14. Alice: Through the Looking Glass 15. Pinocchio
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They also don't have many remakes left. Hercules can do great if it's as fun as Aladdin. Hunchback and maybe Tarzan can do well if budgets are not insanely high. Lilo & Stitch is going directly to Disney+ and I doubt they even touch Pocahontas. Moana will likely be a massive hit tho, and will start the trend of the 2010s Disney remakes.
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I know a lot of people here expected more from Across the Spider-Verse but a $120.5m OW is huge for this movie and a major win. This is a major win for animation, for adult animation and for comic book movies. It also speaks volumes on how loved the first Spider-Verse was. Honestly it could not have happened to a better movie. The first one made $35m OW and $190m DOM while this one will double that, it is a huge accomplishment. It also reinforces that audiences still want to pay for animated movies (if Mario was considered an outlier by some) and for comic book movies, as long as they are good, which tbh its a win win scenario for us.
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Disney really needs to manage their budgets. WDAS and Pixar originals having a $200M budget or MCU solo films having $250M budget is too high.
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I also think that we (myself included) expect way too much from Pixar, except for the Cars franchise. If Brave, Onward, or Turning Red, to give some examples, were released by Disney Animation, Illumination or DreamWorks they would not be considered mediocre or bland to some people. With this I am not saying that those movies aren't great or that the other studios don't have excellent movies (I think the HTTYD trilogy, Zootopia or the first Despicable Me are excellent movies) but it's like expecting every DreamWorks movie to be another Puss in Boots 2 or Shrek 2 type of critical success. Of couse I am not implying that Pixar (nor the other studios tbh) should release movies on the level of The Boss Baby, Pets 2 or Strange World which IMO were awful but more like we can't expect every single Pixar movie to be another Finding Nemo, Toy Story, Ratatouille, Inside Out or Soul.
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Could the domestic gross for The Little Mermaid be higher than the Overseas one at the end of its run? I still have the hope that the legs are amazing internationally like Aladdin but it is not looking good, particularly in Asia. I really wanted this to succeed in a big way so racists can shut their mouth. Edit: Just saw the rankings and felt like doing one as well 1. Aladdin 2. The Jungle Book 3. Cinderella 4. Maleficent 5. Beauty and the Beast 6. Cruella 7. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 8. The Lion King 9. Alice in Wonderland 10. Dumbo 11. Mulan (If they had adapted the original with the original songs this would definitely be in my TOP3) 12. Alice in Wonderland: Through the Looking Glass
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
AN9815 replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
If COVID would not have happened I think Soul would have easily done +$300m DOM in summer 2020. Luca and Turning Red would likely had been +$200m hits as well. -
Guardians of the Galaxy. Vol 3 was fantastic, so glad it is holding up great, my favorite MCU movie since Endgame. I think this movie could have made a billion a year ago, now if it makes +$800m WW I'd be happy considering I thought it was going to barely make $600m a week before it opened. I think it it pretty clear that Marvel must focus on quality over quantity, and I say this as an absolute fan of the brand. Two or three movies max and two disney+ shows a year is more than enough. I actually have high hopes for The Marvels, must be the only one in the internet who is excited for that movie.
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GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD
AN9815 replied to Eric Atreides's topic in Numbers and Data
Some of you really want The Marvels to fail