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Barnack last won the day on September 3 2018

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About Barnack

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    Summer Tentpole

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  1. Still probably much more reliable that almost everything else, some that bought Facebook ads say facebook number give them does not match impact nor third party evaluation at all, by a factor of sometime 100. Without even counting the requirement of what constitute being a view.
  2. Without necessarily lying you can certainly buy / bot farm views....
  3. Would probably prefer to have them closer to each other.
  4. Barnack

    Wednesday Numbers | Broly $7.06 million

    That for sure they are using the optimistic top of the model when they are talking about on pace for X views (in say the next 3 year's or what not they are talking about with view pace). But by a factor of more than 33% too optimistic with what will happen ? There is a bit of a risk, producers or original content risk to start asking too much, arguing look how much your original content reach many people, we are worth more than Friends 100m a year's contract.
  5. Barnack

    Wednesday Numbers | Broly $7.06 million

    Those number are on pace to reach X million views and they household not account in the quarterly report has well. It could be an indication that there is a lot of peoples by account. Say there is 137m subscribers worldwide, if you have about in average 4.x people by account if we add up the free account in that list too (2 group of people, some with partners and childrens) for over 550m total people having access to Netflix. We could see some content giving the impression to be seen by a very large % of subscribers because we underestimate the total numebr of users. Them saying household and not subscribers/account, are they counting how many different IP address watched it ? Sometime 2-3 different one from the same account ? (A better way to seek how many people seen it) If there is over half a billion people that are Netflix users with over 250m IP address I guess those on pace numbers (what they evaluate will be the number for the content total lifetime) could be optimistic but possible.
  6. Barnack

    Wednesday Numbers | Broly $7.06 million

    And ? That the best publicity possible for a movie. I also do not see how/why Bird Box would have made more domestic than a A Quiet Place (not sure it was more seen than A Quiet place either). An average success like Adam Sandler Grown Ups made 98m in revenues on TV, I do not know how much the studio get in average by household watching a movie on TV, but it is probably not that much. On a big success like Spider Man 2 it did 172m on TV (36m on domestic FREE TV alone, with only the percentage of the ads sales going to them, if it is 50 cent by household in average watching it that 72M household watching it on free tv during the movie lifetime in the Canada-US market).
  7. Barnack

    Wednesday Numbers | Broly $7.06 million

    Yes and Avengers is also on Netflix, making it exactly as easy for people to watch no ?
  8. Barnack

    Wednesday Numbers | Broly $7.06 million

    The most watched movie of the year is a fully fair comparison and do not assume anything like that. Avengers was/is also available on Netflix anyway, making the price difference fully go away if one could see the actual numbers of torrents, tv, dvds, est, theater, name it total amount of people that have seen the movie worldwide, but I expect Avengers to be comfortably way ahead.
  9. Barnack

    Wednesday Numbers | Broly $7.06 million

    Not sure about easily, Avengers sold what over 200 millions ticket worldwide ? With how many household that watched it on TV at some point after it ended it's theatrical run.
  10. Barnack

    Wednesday Numbers | Broly $7.06 million

    After Earth didn't reach 400M far from it, it made only 243m. It would not have been a bomb if it would have reached 400m obviously. Those are from studio accountant estimate made before the release of a movie, how much they expect the movie to make in is lifetime if it hit X level at the BO.
  11. I should have made one... ? Could end up close depending on Japan I imagine.
  12. Barnack

    Wednesday Numbers | Broly $7.06 million

    You cannot really judge a movie by looking at just one market..... Queen of Scots is basically being released today. Has for how much money the studio make on a movie like that, it is hard to answer for the studio point of view, depends a lot of what the Hasbro deal look like and who get the money, i.e. you really need to know how much first dollar gross or profit participation, how much of the merchandising is split to have an actual even very rough idea. Some bad comparable (no merchandising involved like a transformer) Will Smith After Earth With a 150M net budget and 62.5m bonus (212.5m production and bonus cost), at 400m WW (160dbo/240intl) the studio thought they would make a 33m profit Elysium 125.6m net budget and 52.53m in bonus (178m production and bonus cost), at 420m WW(175/245), the studio evaluated they would make a 95M in profits. If they kept it under 175m what the movie actually costed them it is different than if Hasbro and others get 25% of the first dollar gross, look at that list of production players: Production Companies Allspark Pictures Bay Films Di Bonaventura Pictures Hasbro Laika Entertainment (uncredited) Paramount Pictures Tencent Pictures Tom DeSanto/Don Murphy Production How much Paramount made amount them is really a shot in the dark, how much Bay made, Di Bonaventura, Hasbro and so on. At the same time maybe Paramount paid only for 70m of that production and that it is a very low risk, low ROI needed type of investment for them.
  13. Someone writing: Paging all M.Night Shyamalan on twitter (and twitting something to start with) Followed by: I insist you do not @ me about, do not have time for confrontation Could be a nice psychoanalyst case, whether about lying or self delusion.
  14. They are probably the one paying (or at least paying the most).
  15. Barnack

    Isn't It Romantic over Second act DOM

    How the trailer work, the very short and easy to explain/sell high concept, V-day weekend presenting itself a bit like Deadpool 100% safe to be seen for both gender, the really funny lead, arguably the best studio to sell "original" movie like this behind it, that has a lot going on for it. IN

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