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Barnack

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Barnack last won the day on September 3 2018

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  1. I imagine that it mean that about 2.4 million to 3 million something people in Spain with is 42m people got covid (has not everyone infected has them after a while it is hard to know by how much that 5.2% undercount them but probably not by too much), the spanish government was aware of 297.6K case a bit above to just under 10% of them, death rate without much surprise a bit above to a bit below 1% if there 28K deaths figure is close to accurate. If the USA was has good has Spain at testing that would mean about 24-30 million American got covids (USA tested 114K by millions, spain 116K by millions), that give an idea by how off any death rate talk that use the 3 million case has a denominator could be off by, specially a talk in is change over time has we can assume how disproportionately the missed case can be over time.
  2. How much do we know about the death rate in the USA ? If it is the known death / known case rate, most of the difference is probably simply larger testing that capture a smaller proportion of heavier case, there is no need for a significant actual change to have a big perceived one. Say there has been 13 million case in the usa and most of the 10 millions missing in the stats got it before june, with a death rate of about 1.4% all along, it will feel like it would have went down.
  3. It maybe upped at that moment, but the start of the game must have been like baseball/hockey about honoring the military since way before, NHL started doing it sporadically when soldier returning to play for there teams after WW1, MLB-NFL during WW2 I think. Maybe the TV edit was not showing it and started to show it after 9/11 ?
  4. I am failing to see the link with the team renaming process and honoring the military as well. The national anthem in most pro sport started for honoring soldiers in the crowd (and for ww1 returning veteran playing on the field/ice), the NFL it started during WW2 and became a rules in 1945, making the link between it and the military obvious, but here ?
  5. Vanilla ice was not working in a office or aware of much of anything in the world I gather.
  6. In term of excess death the USA did had a rather "short" wave: Week 2020 2015 to 2019 average % 12 57938 56142 103% 13 61901 55294 112% 14 70653 55280 128% 15 77313 54768 141% 16 74701 53681 139% 17 70831 52926 134% 18 65680 52913 124% 19 63326 52142 121% 20 59732 51786 115% 21 55771 51521 108% 22 52301 51185 102% 23 47785 51619 93% That the total death in 2020 from week 12 to 23, march 16 to june 7. It goes to normal to start to see an possible excess the week of march 23-29, to clear one after that for 7 week than back to normals / abnormally low for a while. It is really possible that a second wave will start in july and will see april level. Looking at new case type of data could be extremely misleading to look for a wave pattern, considering how badly for a long time the US has been in testing and I am not sure how true it is but there is controversy in term of covid death count as well, the excess death data do show a clear come back to normals level (that is a bit artificial by the reduced death from the reduced activity, but still a wave pattern will be possibly be there). The USA did come down in early june to a level from which death caused by covid were at least less than those saved by the reduced activity, indicating that it was probably large level below end of march-early april level in the population (or that the virus became milder/affecting less sensible population/better healthcare, etc....) Would it possible to see an actual graph of the new cases with the I imagine many millions missing early on, the looking like a first and second wave coming could make sense.
  7. Specially if you consider that the above the line for an episode could be getting close to 10m, that only $5M left to produce. If those numbers are to be believed, that would make GOT season 8 episode costing half the episode of a series like Picard....... One way GoT save a lot of money versus movies is having a lot but a lot of cheaper scene of people talking to each other making most of the show, often interior or recurring gardens and it is far to be some quality not seen in films.
  8. Big series seem to cost around 100M a season (say an NCIS of this world): https://fastlaneng.louisianaeconomicdevelopment.com/public/search/ent http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2.0-CFC-Approved-Projects-List.pdf Westworld season 3 went to 99.9 million in qualified expenditures in the state of CA alone. Star trek picard 2 was 101.3 million in qualified expenditure (a bit over 10m by episode before the outside CA spending and the not qualified expense like the stars salary and so on), Lucifer season 4 was $125M. Some rumors about GOT do feel strange (for example some salary rumors does not seem to match well with by episode budget rumors)
  9. Production budget we see around do include above the line spending but do tend to exclude bonus occuring after the release, even first dollar ones. https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10068015/filing-history If you include the total actors remunerations it is probably way above 500m by movie, they created one number company for both the avengers 3 movie part 1 and 2, so I am not sure how to split it between the 2, but for the combined has of june 30 the spending on those 2 movies were of: In pound: from june 30 2018 to june 30 2019: £293M from june 30 2017 to june 30 2018: £430M before june 30 2017: £247.5M Total: 970.5 million pound At the current exchange rate, that's 1.21 billion (like someone said at the time, there is a 1 billion movie being shot in Atlanta: Dan T. Cathy, co-owner of Pinewood Atlanta, noted the films were "the largest film production ever with a [combined] $1 billion budget",[170]) was probably an bit of an exaggeration in a way and a downplaying of the cost in an other way at the same time. Before the end of this year will probably have an other update from july 1 2019 to now how much went to the above the line players, but I have never seen in the UK filing history something that big, even the famous pirates of the caribbeans movies was a bit above 400 millions, this will end up significantly more than 50% of that by movie. Before any bonus, Spider Man 3 net budget after the tax rebate was almost 300m, if something like EndGames with that cast is much cheaper than Spider Man 3 without even taking inflation into account, that would have been an really good deal.
  10. And I will ask again, source that outdoor activity like going to the beach isn't much better than an indoor one ? People quite knowledgeable in this like jason on this message board and everything I did read with study done seem to indicate that outdoor transmission risk is in a complete different level than a closed indoor environment.
  11. Well I am sorry to have misinterpreted you when you said (I never said that you said that indoors are better than outdoor, I say that you said that indoor isn't worst than outdoor): thousands of people in beaches in uk, is not better thasn going to movie theater That seem to imply that people not social distancing in outdoor activities is not better than going to the movie theater. Saying something is not better, is making a comparison.
  12. G4 already appears to have infected humans in China. In Hebei and Shandong provinces, both places with high pig numbers, more than 10% of swine workers on pig farms and 4.4% of the general population tested positive in a survey from 2016 to 2018. There is no evidence yet that G4 could spread from person to person -- perhaps the most promising sign so far, said Carl Bergstrom, a professor of biology at the University of Washington I imagine that if it was that prevalent year's ago among people working/eating pigs and didn't catch up among humans it is a strong very low to no spread from person to person, but I am not sure why it is a news now june 30, 2020, with the word new in it, it seem to be about a decade old and tracked actively for a long time. Reading the research abstract, it seem that the news is that the G4 seem to have gained more and more ability to infect swine worker over time (and the more humans has it, the more virus reproducing themselves, the more chance a variation that bring human to human transmission will occur)
  13. Well yes the internet search seem to be quite unanimous that outdoor transmissions is much rarer than indoor transmission: https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/state-and-regional/no-new-covid-19-cases-from-lake-of-the-ozarks-crowds-missouri-health-director-says/article_6f36ad32-d125-5382-b78f-74bd0f6510ac.html https://www.businessinsider.com/risk-of-coronavirus-transmission-lower-outdoors-evidence-2020-5
  14. Source ? It could very well be the case that thousands of people in beaches is a category above less spreading than in theater.
  15. How AC system work and filtration of air recycling is a very important metric for this, it could be possible that movie theater are specially bad (like cruise ship or some type of restaurant were). But has a general rules indication are that anything outside is much safer than anything inside, non take out/car service restauration and movie theater are obviously non essential
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