Sophie

And now The Apprentice (realistic trump biopic) is going to be released on this day too!? What an interesting collection of films. How do you guys feel The Apprentice could open to? Could it beat out the previously listed films?

Does anybody know around when deadline typically posts their "PM update", "AM update" etc throughout the weekend? Also is there a faster and better source for the mid-weekend projections?

Looks like the folks at Reddit are making their official prediction of the week and disagreeing with most people here. Everybody there seems to have their money on Piece By Piece to be the biggest opener of October 11th https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1fecv8f/rboxoffice_long_range_forecast_saturday_night/ What do you guys have to say to that?

A My Hero Academia movie. Terrifier 3, sequel to cult horror franchise. Saturday Night, a sort of 'biopic' of the first SNL episode And Piece by Piece, a biopic of Pharrell made out of Legos. I know its unlikely that any of them will crack the top 3, or even 4, with Transformers, Joker, Wild Robot and Beetlejuice 2. But I'm still interested in what you guys think will win. Hell, is there any chance they'll all lose out to the second week of White Bird? Probably not, but weirder things have happened

Will this end up being the biggest non-american film of the year? It's at $433M rn compared to YOLO's $480M.

Yes I mean total gross ofc. Not domestic.

I'm just curious in taking some inventory and seeing what other people's opinions on each movie's chances are. Sorry if this thread doesn't belong here. So far we've got 6. These are the ones left and the percentage chance that I think they'll get there: Moana: 95% Joker: 90% Mufasa: 80% Venom: 45% Wicked: 40% Sonic: 35% Beetlejuice Beetlejuice: 20% Gladiator 2: 10% I think it would be cool to see the whole top 10 above half a billion and it would be cool to see the entire top 10 be Hollywood films for the first time since 2019.

Well, Dune moved to 2024, so that's not good news for this year. Looks like it comes down to Taylor Swift, The Marvels, and I guess Aquaman. All the others feel like long shots.

Even billboard admits Drake is the biggest artist of the 2010s, as well as the biggest hitmaker of the 21st century. But the media is just not going to sing the triumphs of a rapper as loudly as they will for a girl-next-door soccer mom friendly pop star. Anyway, the culture for that success to translate to box office concert film is not there. It's a specific audience that would actually go out to the theaters like this. The only rapper whose fanbase I could imagine buying movie tickets would be Nicki Minaj, or maybe Kanye now that I think of it. But even then they'd probably be lucky to do One Direction numbers. There will definitely be attempts at following in Taylor's footsteps. The person I imagine being most capable is Beyonce, but obviously not on this level.

Taylor has some crazy momentum right now though. Old Taylor songs like Blank Space and Cruel Summer coming back from the dead left and right. Wouldn't be surprised if 1989 TV had the biggest pop debut of all time on streaming (currently held by Midnights). Could even challenge Scorpion or CLB. And in terms of concerts, obviously she's unmatched.

Is Wallen, whether we like it or not. In terms of overall streams, sales, and radio play, about twice as big as Taylor this year. He also broke Drake's 2016 record for most chart presence in a single calender year. Which was in turn was a record held by the Beatles for 52 years.

Elton and Madonna are definitely worth putting in the conversation as well.

There are things that Taylor has accomplished that nobody else ever has. Such as turning rerecordings of 10 year old albums into top-tier events. This seems to be another genuinely one-of-a-kind historical achievement for Taylor. But there are also things other artists have accomplished that Taylor has yet to match. Such as Drake being the most streamed artist of all time, breaking the streaming debut record on 5 different occasions, breaking pretty much every record The Beatles had, maintaining multiple streaming debuts that Taylor has yet to match, and charting 300+ songs (so far) I've always compared Drake more to Elvis than The Beatles. Because while Elvis was there to dominate when the charts first came into existence, Drake was there to dominate when the charts went through their most fundamental change: the introduction of streaming. I really feel like the mid 2010s introduction of streaming will be looked back at as a fundamental long-term reset for the music industry in the same way that the 1950s is seen now. Only question is how long will Drake maintain his spot as the biggest artist of the streaming era. Taylor has been bridging the gap a bit since Midnights released. Meanwhile 2023 has seen Morgan Wallen take multiple of Drake's most important chart records (despite Wallen being notably US heavy). Plus keep in mind that with concert feats, it has a lot to do with her fanbase demographic being older, whiter, and having more disposable income than most of her contemporaries, such as Drake or Bad Bunny, who have a younger and less white listening demo. Plus, the music being made for older, wealthier, whiter audiences encourages mainstream media to shine more of a light on her accomplishments. But I think comparing people like Elvis, Beatles, MJ, Drake and Taylor, who are all ultimately unrivaled within their own particular accomplishments does them all a bit of an injustice. And just like with Avatar vs Gone With The Wind, you can't really expect people to rationally compare historical vs modern accomplishments. Optics will cloud people's judgements and they will get heated fast.

BTS and MJ both made over 70% overseas. And that's about $190M overseas for MJ. 1D also made almost 60% overseas. A lot of these concert films aren't even released in very many overseas territories though. Hence why some of them make 90% of their gross domestic. Taylor, I've been told, will likely gradually release it overseas to match with her actual tour. I'd say a 50/50 split could be a reasonable expectation, assuming she puts effort into overseas territories.

Is Taylor fucking Swift going to be the one to save 2023 box office?? Obviously should be very frontloaded, but I'm being told that she could get a $100 domestic opening. And from what I know, Taylor is also quite popular overseas.