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Carlangonz

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About Carlangonz

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  1. FEBRUARY 15-17 WEEKEND. ALITA GOES ALL THE WAY TO THE TOP IN A CROWDED WEEKEND. LOCAL REMAKE OF BEST FRIEND’S WEDDING CRASHES AFTER A PROMISING OPENING DAY. LEGO SEQUEL FALLS BELOW ITS PREDECESSOR. Alita: Battle Angel - 6.8% behind Ready Player One’s first four days and 36.9% ahead Ghost in the Shell’s first FSS frame. - It has no direct competition for almost three weeks before Captain Marvel arrives to theatres. Could reach $170M+, not a breakout but definitely a very good result. La Boda de Mi Mejor Amigo - Welp! This deflated after day one unlike Alita or Lego sequel and was more front-loaded than pretty much every local 4-day opener. Valentine’s Day definitely helped it. - It definitely won’t pass Mirreyes Contra Godínez and considering it was already front-loaded probably won’t reach last year’s weeding hit Boda de Valentina. LEGO Movie 2 - Only grossed half of both LEGO Batman and first LEGO openings. Definitely a huge decrease from those two. How To Train Your Dragon 3 - This Friday should top Madagascar 3 as the third biggest hit for Dreamworks. Mirreyes Contra Godínez - Already fifth highest grossing local title ever and is about to pass No Manches, Frida as fourth highest. # MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM. 1 Alita: Battle Angel $53.2 $78.8 $4.06 867.5K 1.2 2 La Boda de mi Mejor Amigo $35.9 $48.8 $2.51 613.6K 854.4K 3 How To Train Your Dragon 3 $29.8 -52,62% $331.3 $17.28 602K 6.4 4 LEGO Movie 2 $24.8 $28.6 $1.47 463.8K 541.5K 5 Mirreyes Contra Godínez $14.6 -42,74% $217.1 $11.36 244.8K 4.1 6 Green Book $7.6 -31,46% $24.4 $1.26 92.9K 323.9K 7 Escape Room $5.5 -68,39% $30.6 $1.58 103.2K 590.5K 8 Glass $2.2 -69,61% $205 $10.69 39.1K 3.7 9 The Favourite $1.9 -38,51% $14.9 $776K 20.9K 176.8K 10 Vice $1.6 -38,46% $13.4 $697K 17.5K 161K This Friday opens: Cold Pursuit, Lady Rancho, The Prodigy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Mia Et Le Lion Blanc.
  2. Carlangonz

    Best Picture Predictions - 2018

    Has ever a movie won BP without any major victory at the guilds? If not then Blackkklansman can be put into sleep. Or at least not considered anymore as the alternative to Roma/Green Book.
  3. Historically WDAS isn't as strong as Pixar or Illumination. The highest WDAS isn't even the half of the third highest Pixar. Frozen wasn't an event like it was in the US. Unlike other movies like Ralph or Zootopia (a 4-quadrant) this appeals mostly a female younger audience. Too early to say anything. If you ask me now I'll tell you $15M-$17M. Although I do expect an increase but it could be minimal or explode ($20M+), also I'm not expecting the ER to be as good as it is now by the time it arrives.
  4. What makes me curious about it is that some of them are co-productions with Televisa (which owns Videocine) and Corazon Films. Wonder how they'll work on the distribution and if they'll just leave it up all to Netflix. Yes. It opened above Hazlo como Hombre's first day -also on Tuesday- so don't see it struggling towards it. As for Lego, I think it could go a bit higher but is really low anyway. Yup. It has everything to smash BO. It has no strong competition two weeks before it opens and has two weeks free after it opens. Wonder why nobody has taken advantage of it, especially April releases; looking at you Llorona and El Complot Mongol. Those first two are being supported by Sony. Fox would be another choice but since the merger is about to be completed I don't think they keep supporting local material in the region. Warner and Diamond are the other options. It's going to be interesting indeed. Also very curious to see the potential in Argentina where their local comedies do well. @Hei25 They are. I remember have read in Business Insider that Narcos and Narcos Mexico were a hit not just in the region but worldwide. Club de Cuervos is also very appealing to foreign audiences. Now only hope they can work with local talent yet to be recognized, it could be a huge opportunity, especially in times when both TV biggest chains are going through rough times to draw audiences.
  5. Great for both Alita and Boda de Mi Mejor Amigo. Both looking at $70M+ for the 4-Day. Awful for the Lego Movie sequel, just awful. Speaking of local remakes of beloved rom-coms of the US... 50 First Dates coming later this year. This and Best Friend's Wedding are the first of a long-term plan that looks to do the same for other titles not just here but in all of Latam. @salvador-232 @PanaMovie
  6. I was surprised when I found out how big the event was going to be. Their local TV content is massive with material like Club de Cuervos (created and produced by Gaz Alazraki; director of the second highest local grosser ever) and La Casa de las Flores (produced by Manolo Caro; director of past Christmas' hit Perfectos Desconocidos). They must have a lot of confidence and faith in the country to announce such packed slate of original content. By the way... Roma made it this weekend to a handful of Cinemex locations. Hopefully a considerable step in the relationship.
  7. It should've been opened past friday. Having it along with other two wide releases was never a good idea. Although is opening in a bigger % share of 3D than usual, we'll see if that can help.
  8. January posted a new historical record flying near to $1.1B lc ($57M USD) beating last year's by 10%. The month was benefited from wonderful performances by Dragon Ball Super: Broly (first and only January release to open north $100M), Glass and Creed II as for legs of December titles like Aquaman, Into the Spiderverse, Bumblebee and Perfectos Desconocidos. Also, not less important small hits like A Dog's Way Home and late openers like Mirreyes contra Godínez. February comes loaded as we've already seen with How To Train Your Dragon 3 and next weekend we have three wide releases that are looking to add at least $70M each one. We don't if february could repeat the feat of january and beat last year's same month since 2018 came with the record breaking Black Panther and local hit Boda de Valentina.
  9. At this point don't know if would work, a lot of people have already seen it through Netflix and in the main cities those who wanted to see it in theatres already had over 2 months.
  10. FEBRUARY 08-10 WEEKEND. HIPO & CHIMUELO REPEAT AT NO. 1 FOR THE WEEKEND; LOOKING FOR A PLACE AMONG TOP 3 DREAMWORK TITLES. MIRREYES CONTRA GODINEZ NOW IS POISED TO BE ONE OF THE FIVE HIGHEST LOCAL RELEASES EVER. ALITA HOLD PREVIEWS BEFORE RELEASE. How To Train Your Dragon 3 - Better than expected hold; now is 16% ahead of Shrek: Forever After at the same point of release but what makes it more spectacular is that Shrek held a summer run during holidays and this one is happening in February. - Let’s wait and see how it is affected by the Lego Movie sequel this weekend but now is a lock to join Shrek: Forever After and The Boss Baby as one of the three highest releases ever for Dreamworks. Mirreyes Contra Godínez - Already outgrossed any of 2018’s local titles and by Thursday afternoon it should’ve been taken over the fifth spot as highest local release ever surpassing Hazlo Como Hombre. It could also top 2016’s No Manches Frida. Alita: Battle Angel - Held 3D previews during Sunday, is not a bad result but isn’t great either since it had the 3D boost. We’ll see how it handles its opening and if it’s capable to do over $40M. # MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM. 1 How To Train Your Dragon 3 $62.9 -46,73% $280.13 $14.65 1.18 5.3 2 Mirreyes Contra Godínez $25.5 -34,91% $190.4 $9.99 453.3K 3.6 3 Escape Room $17.4 $17.4 $911K 306.5K 306.5K 4 Alita: Battle Angel $11.4 $11.4 $597K 156.19K 156.19K 5 Green Book $11.09 $11.09 $580K 140.2K 140.2K 6 Glass $7.24 -50,06% $199.9 $10.44 129.10K 3.6 7 Final Score $6.28 $6.28 $328K 118.9K 118.9K 8 The Mule $4 -51,21% $44.9 $2.35 67.2K 758.2K 9 The Favourite $3.06 -33,47% $11.5 $601K 34.15K 134.8K 10 A Dog's Way Home $2.76 -56,87% $77.3 $4.03 56.7K 1.62 This Thursday opens: La Boda de Mi Mejor Amigo, The Lego Movie 2, Alita: Battle Angel, Cold War and Shoplifters.
  11. HTTYD3 looking at a major drop, nevertheless it had stellar weekdays and it has topped Broly as the highest release of the year and we could be looking at five weekends in a row with No. 1 topping $50M+ lc. Mirreyes vs Godínez maintains as the runner-up in the weekend chart. Green Book aims to be the fourth BP nominee of this year to gross over $1M USD. #4 this weekend. As Captain Marvel presales starts in countries like the UK and Brazil we can assume they're close in here too. Disney is probably expecting another week to put tickets on sale, would be good if they follow Glass and Aquaman's strategy to hold previews instead of midnights.
  12. FEBRUARY 01-03 WEEKEND. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 3 FLIES TO A SUPERB OPENING; HIGHEST FOR THE FRANCHISE. MIRREYES CONTRA GODINEZ HOLDS WELL AND GLASS AIMS $200M LC. FAVOURITE, VICE AND KLANSMAN BENEFIT FROM OSCAR NOMINATIONS. How To Train Your Dragon 3 - 32.4% above How To Train Your Dragon 2 and 4.1% ahead of Shrek Forever After. Highest for the franchise, studio and for an animation released in February. - It’s free of competition the next 10 days so $350M+ are depending on how it can hold to Alita and Lego, is the stronger of all though. Mirreyes Contra Godínez - 32.9% ahead of last year’s Boda de Valentina and 4.7% above 2017’s Hazlo como Hombre. $200M still looking good. Glass - $200M is going to be a photo finish. It did result more front-loaded than expected. A hit anyway from wherever you see it. # MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM. 1 How To Train Your Dragon 3 $118.09 $144.2 $7.54 2.1 2.6 2 Mirreyes Contra Godínez $39.18 -40% $136.15 $7.15 696.1K 2.5 3 Glass $14.5 -57,41% $181.8 $9.50 258.3K 3.3 4 The Mule $8.2 -51,47% $34.1 $1.79 131.2K 562.8K 5 A Dog's Way Home $6.4 -59,28% $69.44 $3.62 131.3K 1.4 6 The Favourite $4.6 $4.6 $240K 51.6K 51.6K 7 Vice $4.2 $4.2 $219K 49.7K 49.7K 8 Mermaid: Lake of Dead $3.2 -68,62% $18.6 $978K 67.2K 408.1K 9 Blackkklansman $2.8 +124% $7.31 $383K 41.4K 100.3K 10 Pyewacket $2.13 $2.13 $111K 43.6K 43.6K This Friday opens: Escape Room, Green Book, Final Score, Mole de Olla: Receta Original, Capharnaüm, Lola Pater, Beast of Burden and Que León
  13. $75M+ Previews have done its work building buzz. Probably it will. I think No Manches Frida 2 is coming and there's also a big title in summer (need to check but is based on a book and has a pretty good ensamble). I hope Las Niñas Bien does well, it had great reception in Morelia Film Fest. As for LBDMMA it's going to be tricky. Marketing is been lazy for it and it'll canibalize screens with Alita and Lego. Anything over $40M for it is good, I'm expecting $35M-$45M by now. It's a female driven film just like last year's Una Mujer sin Filtro and La Boda de Valentina so somewhere in the range of those two. Definitely needs a good opening, local big titles lately aren't as leggy as they used to be and I'm not expecting this one to be the exception. Alita is taking over that male audience that neither Boda or Lego are drawing. I do can see Lego making over $100M total, Ninjago was just really bad and affected by the Cinépolis-Universal/Warner fight.
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