BDC

If they switch Dune and Matrix 4 to theatrical exclusives, won't they be facing false advertising lawsuits now that they've already advertised that they will both be available through HBO Max? They've very likely made a mistake by setting the date so far out with the dual releases, but they'd be making another one by reneging on it.

No one is going to see the threat as Avengers-level if all of the Avengers aren't involved. I see a lot of parallels between DS1/DS2 and Thor 2/3. The sequels in each case are a team-up of two main Avengers (Thor/Hulk vs. Dr. Strange/Scarlett Witch) and the introduction of another hero (Valkyrie vs. Miss America). Conveniently, DS1 and Thor 2 made virtually the same their first weekends. Due to the events that have happened in the interim, I'd say that Thor: Ragnarok's gross is the floor for DS2, but I don't think it goes too much higher than that. I'd be very surprised if it goes above $150m.

Onward, ISB, and BS, in that order? A little specificity might help.

All of the John Wick films had roughly a 3x Overall/Opening 3-day multiple, and none of them opened on a holiday weekend. BB3 needs a roughly 3.2x multiple opening from a holiday weekend. I don't see it happening. If it gets to $200m, it will be surprising. Around $180m seems more likely.