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AndyChrono

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  1. Jury is still out on Little Mermaid, Mulan, etc. As far as the ones already released, IMO Aladdin will be the only one fondly remembered decades from now because it's the only one that has made good changes & additions on the music side. I found the new Arabian Nights to be a vast improvement over the old one with offensive parts removed and extra verses to flesh out the song. A whole generation (girls in particular) are going to grow up with Speechless, and when Disney does another reboot in ~27 years or whatever, folks will be saying please don't screw up this song! If you look at the top selling songs for BatB and TLK, not surprisingly it's the classics like Beauty and Beast, Circle of Life, Hakuna Matata, etc. that are the most popular, and one would expect that A Whole New World would be the top seller on the Aladdin soundtrack... but it's not! When the top selling song on the soundtrack is the new song, that's when you know they made a worthy addition to the Disney canon. By comparison, the new songs in BatB were duds, and the ones in TLK seem to be pretty meh as well. They just aren't of the caliber of the classics even with big household names singing them.
  2. $1b is pretty much locked and it's looking more and more like 1.050b is the target. Aladdin was at 922.7m at the end of last weekend and is now at 960.2m (est.) at the end of this weekend. That means it made 37.5m (probably more with actuals) over the past week and would only need better than -48.5% week-to-week drops to reach $1b. Thus far it has been dropping at roughly half of that. With ultra leggy markets like Japan and South Korea carrying the OS grosses, expect the weekly declines to continue to be small. If week to week drops are: 48.5% -> 1.000b finish (from above) 45% -> 1.006b finish 40% -> 1.016b finish 35% -> 1.030b finish 30% -> 1.048b finish 25% -> 1.072b finish And just for shits and giggles... 21.1% -> 1.100b finish!
  3. I've been one of the more pessimistic folks regarding it's chances all along, but this should lock up the WW record. 4.5m WW weekend with 7.2m to go means EG just needs a 2.6x off of this weekend worldwide which is easily achievable. Even a hypothetical total collapse at say a 2x will get it within 2 million or so of the record. I never believed in the 10m push/fudge or whatever you want to call it, but 2m would definitely get Wrinkle-in-Timed by Disney so either way the record should be secure. Congratulations to the new Kings of the World! P.S: The timing is perfect for Disney since EG should take the record right before it releases on home video July 30th so you should see the marketing reflect this.
  4. Probably because of Speechless Search "Speechless Korean" on YouTube and there's a bunch of covers with millions of views. I believe a couple of those are actual (lesser known) k-pop singers doing covers.
  5. The problem with that "unnecessary" critique is that while it might be their honest opinion, it is basically just a strawman. Whether a movie should exist or not has nothing to do with the quality of the acting, directing, writing, cinematography, music, VFX, etc. If the critics find those aspects bad, then it's fair game. Thus far, the primary substantive complaint seems to be the uncanny valley regarding the animal expressions - particularly during the songs. That's a fair criticism and one that could impact audience enjoyment of the film.
  6. Needs -38.4% hold or better for Wednesday which should be doable. It's Wednesday holds so far (not counting last week because of holidays) have been -37.9%, -34.6%, -31.5%, -34.7%, and -37.3% so I'd expect it to land somewhere in this range again to stay over 1m on Wednesday. Thursday will be pretty tough because it might lose some screens to the new openers in the evening. However it's still possible with say a -35% Wednesday and -5% Thursday would get it to $1,003,815 and squeak by!
  7. Spider-man 2 is easily the best of the live-action Spidey movies and one of the GOAT superhero movies. Holland's MCU version just has too much humor for my tastes. I tolerated it in HC, but when you consider what has happened to the character in the MCU canon since then, you would think there would be some more seriousness and maturity.
  8. Sure, sometimes. However, I've yet to see evidence that this would be one of those times. Since folks were bringing up Mexico numbers earlier, here's the weekend numbers for Mexico which has been one of EG's stronger markets. As we can see, EG dropped over 90% (!!!) in Mexico, which strongly suggests that theaters basically mass dumped it. Weekend numbers from Russia are not yet available, but EG dropped from over 200k last weekend to making just 2k on Thursday, which would suggest the weekend would have also been a 90%+ drop. I suspect these are not the only cases like this. It seems like some countries are just playing EG for a week to cash in and then slashing all of its screens.
  9. Why is that super odd? Domestically EG made 6.1m last weekend, and then added ~2.9m on the weekdays which were boosted by a Canadian Holiday Monday and then 4th of July holiday in the US. The only "normal" weekday last week was Tuesday and even that was probably slightly boosted. Regardless, without those two holidays, a "normal" set of domestic weekdays would have only been around 1.6-1.7m judging from the Tuesday take. A similar ratio applied to the previous overseas weekend of 2.6M gets you roughly 680k-700k on weekdays overseas. However that's assuming that EG kept all it's screens/theaters overseas. Domestically, EG only lost a minuscule 40 theaters or so. We don't know how well EG kept it's screens overseas, but all you would need are some larger than expected screen/theater losses overseas and that ~700k probably starts dipping into the 500k range. Then if the 1.3m weekend estimate comes in under at say 1.1m then we are right back where we started.
  10. Yeah it's actually shocking to me so many actually believe that without question. Whether you add the supposed "held back" gross now, or add it later, the final number ends up being the same anyway. 1 + X or X + 1 is the same thing after all so it makes no difference in the actual push for the record. My gut says that Occam's Razor probably applies here and EG probably just came in below estimates. It's not like it's the first time that has happened.
  11. One possibility is that the weekend portion was actually lower than estimates, so even if the weekdays were more than 300k, the total sum ends up the same.
  12. It was a different time and different calendar... but FFH's 6-day will probably be similar to Spider-Man 2's 6-day ~180m. Both well-received sequels. Similar legs -> 370-380m finish.
  13. Probably because those countries have very strong local film industries which makes the marketplace super crowded. If EG does get the re-release in those places, it will have to wait until a less-crowded time.
  14. With actuals, the total worldwide weekend was about 11.4m. EG basically needs a 3x off of this weekend to take the record which is possible, but not locked. It will depend on how well it holds onto screens in the next 10 days or so.
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