[Wednesday numbers]

Once Upon a Deadpool did $953K in early morning industry estimates in its opening Wednesday at 1,566 theaters (including Tuesday previews).

 

https://deadline.com/2018/12/once-upon-a-deadpool-jingles-900k-on-wednesday-1202519393/

[The Very Boring Dec. 7-9 Weekend Thread l Ralph 16.1 l Grinch 15.1 l Creed 10.3 l Favourite 1.4 l Schindler's 551K l Scots 200K l Vox Lux 162K l Ben is Back 81K l Aquaman opens to 93.6M in China l Who's excited for Christmas?]

Schindler's List only doing 750K according to Variety.

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/box-office-ralph-breaks-the-internet-grinch-1203084410/

[SOTM 6 - Building a pyramid of predictions.]

12 Days of Deadpool Total box office - LOWEST

Aquaman OW total

Glass's domestic total after 7 days

How to Train Your Dragon's OW doubled

Into the Spiderverse domestic total - HIGHEST

[Week 6 - So... Why isn't Alita or something releasing now?]

Part A:

 

1. Will Schindler's List Open to more than $2M? 1000 NO 

2. Will Schindler's List Open to more than $4M? 2000 NO 

3. Will Schindler's List Open to more than $3M? 3000 NO 

4. Will Ralph make more than $15M? 4000 YES

5. Will Swimming with Men open to more than 225k? 5000 NO 

 

6. Will Creed 2 make more than $10M? 1000 YES

7. Will any of the top 5 finish in a different position to last weekend? 2000 NO 

8. Will Robin Hood stay above Green Book? 3000 NO 

9. Will any film in the top 10 drop more than 62%? 4000 NO 

10. Will Bohemian Rhapsody stay above $2000 PTA? 5000 YES 

 

11. Will Bohemian Rhapsody overtake Crazy Rich Asians' Domestic total? 1000 NO 

12. Will Instant Family increase more than 140% on Friday? 2000 YES 

13. Will Hannah Grace increase more than 45% on Saturday? 3000 NO 

14. How many films in the top 10 will not drop a place from their position last weekend? 4000 EIGHT

15. Will anything ever be released in cinemas ever again? 5000 YES

 

Bonus: 

 

9/15    5000

10/15   8000

11/15    12,000

12/15   16,000 

13/15    20,000

14/15    24,000 

 15/15   30,000  

 

 

Part B:

 

The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:

 

Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  

2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points

3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points

 

1. What will Schindler's List make for its 3 day? $1.435m

2. What will Robin Hood's percentage change be? -39.3%

3. What will Green Book's PTA be for the Weekend? $2,795

 

 

Part 😄

 

There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:

 

3. Creed II

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

7. Green Book

9. Widows

11. A Star is Born (2018)

13. Schindler's List (2018 re-release)

 

Because I realised bonuses are stupid...

 

1/6   4,000

2/6   10,000

3/6   18,000

4/6   25,000

5/6   36,000

6/6 - 50,000

[The Winter Game QOTW Survival Game Thread - Good times are just a click away]

Week 6: No

[Tuesday Numbers]

5 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

I see no reason why it would have a better hold than its Thanksgiving weekend considering they are also forecasting Ralph 2 to drop 37%. Since the weekend, the two have been more or less been following each other's increases and drops.

Christmas themed movies perform very well on this weekend, especially kids films.

The Star dropped -9.1%

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2017&wknd=49&p=.htm

Arthur Christmas dropped -12.0%

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2011&wknd=49&p=.htm

A Christmas Carol dropped -12.0%

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2009&wknd=50&p=.htm

[The Winter Game QOTW Survival Game Thread - Good times are just a click away]

Week 5: Yes

[Week 5 - The Biggest weekend of 2018 is surely incoming]

Part A:

 

1. Will Hannah Grace Open to more than $2.5M? 1000 YES

2. Will Hannah Grace Open to more than $5.25M? 2000 NO

3. Will Hannah Grace Open to more than $3.75M? 3000 YES

4. Will Ralph make more than $30M? 4000 NO

5. Will Will Hannah Grace make more than 40% of its OW on Friday? 5000 NO

 

6. Will Creed 2 make more than $20M? 1000 NO

7. Will Will Creed and Ralph combine for more than $47.5M? 2000 NO

8. Will Robin Hood stay above Green Book? 3000 YES

9. Will Fantastic Beasts and Grinch combined make more than Creed? 4000 YES

10. On what day will Instant Family pass Nutcracker's total (Fri, Sat, Sun, or None - If it does it early everyone wins)? 5000 NONE

 

11. Will Head full of Honey make more than 50k PTA? 1000 NO

12. Will Robin Hood have a bigger percentage drop than Overlord? 2000 NO

13. Will A star is born increase more than 200% on Friday? 3000 NO

14. Will Widows drop more than 37% on Sunday? 4000 YES

15. How about this weekend? Will Robin Hood finally have its moment? 5000 NO

 

Bonus: 

 

9/15    5000

10/15   8000

11/15    12,000

12/15   16,000 

13/15    20,000

14/15    24,000 

 15/15   30,000  

 

 

Part B:

 

The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:

 

Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  

2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points

3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points

 

1. What will Hannah Grace make for its 3 day? $5.05m

2. What will Grinch's percentage change be? -40.77%

3. What will Head full of Honey's PTA be for the Weekend? $12,500

 

 

Part 😄

 

There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:

 

2. Dr. Seuss' The Grinch

4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

6. Instant Family

8. Widows

10. Green Book

12. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

 

Because I realised bonuses are stupid...

 

1/6   4,000

2/6   10,000

3/6   18,000

4/6   25,000

5/6   36,000

6/6 - 50,000

[SOTM5 - Fantasy Time is here again]

Full 10,000 / Partial 6,000  - Glass

Full 8,000 / Partial 5,000  - Bumblebee

Full 6,000 / Partial 4,000  - Into the Spiderverse

Full 3,000 / Partial 2,000  - Happy Death Day 2U

Full 2,000 / Partial 1,000  - A Dog's Way Home

Full 1,000 / Partial 500  - Serenity

[Box Office Casino 2.0]

19 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

I bet 50 points to 3 people that Aquaman opens to over 80m DOM.

I'll take this too.

[Box Office Casino 2.0]

19 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Mortal Engines will open OVER $15.0M DOM (Dec 14th-16th weekend) (2 people/25 pts each)

I'll take this.

[SOTM 4 - The traditional overs and unders affair - Deadline Same as weekend deadline]

PART A:

 

Below are 10 films due for release between this weekend and January 11th, along with their predicted total grosses according to https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-dogs-way-home-upside/

 

 

1. Creed 2 - $113M - TOO LOW

2. Robin Hood - $28M - TOO LOW

3. Possession of Hannah Grace - $5M - DOUBLE

4. Mortal Engines - $55M - TOO HIGH

5. The Mule - $80M - TOO HIGH

 

6. Bumblebee - $100M - TOO LOW

7. Second Act - $40M - TOO HIGH 

8. Vice - $65M - TOO HIGH 

9. Escape Room - $32M - TOO LOW 

10. The Upside - $39M - TOO LOW 

 

 

PART B:

 

Here are 10 questions: 

 

1. Which film will be the lowest grossing except Hannah Grace? SECOND ACT

2. Which film will be the highest grossing without making more than $100M? THE MULE

3. Will exactly four films make the Domestic top 15? NO

4. Will any film double its predicted gross? YES

5. Will any film fail to reach half of its predicted gross? NO 

 

6. Will the actual combined total gross for the films be higher or lower than the predicted total gross? HIGHER

7. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's best prediction? MORTAL ENGINES

8. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's worst prediction? POSSESSION OF HANNAH GRACE 

9. How many of these films will open in the number 1 position? NONE

10. Will 4 or more of these films open in 5th or lower? YES 

[Winter Game Week 4 - Creed Breaks Robin Hood]

Part A: (Everything is 3 day) 

 

1. Will Ralph Open to more than $45M? 1000 YES 

2. Will Ralph Open to more than $55M? 2000 YES 

3. Will Ralph Open to more than $50M? 3000 YES 

4. Will Ralph make more than 2.4x its Wednesday and Thursday for its 3 Day weekend? 4000 NO 

5. Will Ralph Increase on Saturday? 5000 NO

 

6. Will Creed Open to more than $30M? 1000 YES 

7. Will Robin Hood Open to more than $10M? 2000 YES 

8. Will Creed open in the top 2? 3000 YES 

9. Will Creed and Robin Hoods combined 5 day totals be higher than Ralph's 3 Day total? 4000 YES 

10. Will Robin Hood make more on Wednesday or Sunday? 5000 WEDNESDAY 

 

11. Will Green Book make more than $5M? 1000 YES 

12. Will Dragon Tattoo drop more than 60%? 2000 YES 

13. Will Overlord stay in the top 12? 3000 YES 

14. Will Instant Family stay above Widows? 4000 YES 

15.  Will Grinch drop less than 15%? 5000 NO 

 

16. Will fantastic beasts drop more than 45% on Sunday? 1000 NO 

17. Will Nutcracker have a PTA above $1000? 2000 YES 

18. Will A Star is Born be closer to Grinch or Venom's domestic total by the end of Sunday? 3000 GRINCH

19. Will any non new opener or major expander increase on Saturday? 4000 YES 

20. Will Robin Hood? Or won't it? 5000 IT WON'T 

 

Bonus: 

 

12/20    3000

13/20    5000

14/20    8000

15/20   12000

16/20    16,000

17/20   20,000 

18/20    26,000

19/20    32,000 

 20/20   40,000  

 

 

Part B:

 

The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:

 

Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  

2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points

3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points

 

1. What will Ralph make for its 3 day OW? $64.3m

2. What will Robin Hood's Wed + Thurs be as a percentage of its 3 day? 48.36%

3. What will Overlord's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $1,099

 

 

Part 😄

 

There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:

 

2. Creed 2

3. Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (2018)

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

7. Robin Hood (2018)

10. A Star is Born (2018)

12. Overlord

 

Because I realised bonuses are stupid...

 

1/6   4,000

2/6   10,000

3/6   18,000

4/6   25,000

5/6   36,000

6/6 - 50,000

[The Winter Game QOTW Survival Game Thread - Good times are just a click away]

Week 4: Yes

[Winter Game Week 3 - Fantastic Films and Where to Find Them]

Part A:

 

1. Will Fatastic Beasts Open to more than $65M? 1000 YES 

2. Will Fantastic Beasts Open to more than $80M? 2000 NO 

3. Will Fantastic Beasts Open to more than $72.5M? 3000 NO 

4. Will Widows Open to more than $14M? 4000 YES

5. Will Widows Open to more than $17.5M? 5000 NO

 

6. Will Instant Family open to more than $14.5M?  1000 YES 

7. Will Green Book have a PTA above $17,500? 2000 YES

8. Will Bohemian Rhapsody stay in the top 4? 3000 YES 

9. Will Grinch make more than half of Fantastic Beasts' weekend total? 4000 YES 

10. Will Nutcracker stay above Star is Born? 5000 NO 

 

11. Will Halloween's PTA stay above $1,500? 1000 NO 

12. Will Overlord have a bigger percentage drop than Spider's Web? 2000 NO 

13. Will A Private War enter the top 10? 3000 NO 

14. Will Smallfoot drop below the top 16? 4000 YES 

15. Will Johnny Depp transform into somebody more GA friendly by the end of the film? I dunno maybe Mel Gibson? 5000 YES 

 

Bonus: 

 

9/15    5000

10/15   8000

11/15    12,000

12/15   16,000 

13/15    20,000

14/15    24,000 

 15/15   30,000  

 

 

Part B:

 

The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:

 

Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  

2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points

3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points

 

1. What will Fantastic Beasts make for its 3 day? $64m

2. What will Nutcracker's percentage change be? -52.81%

3. What will Venom's PTA be for the Weekend? $1,701

 

 

Part 😄

 

There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:

 

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Instant Family

6. A Star is Born (2018)

8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

10. Nobody's Fool

12. Boy Erased

 

Because I realised bonuses are stupid...

 

1/6   4,000

2/6   10,000

3/6   18,000

4/6   25,000

5/6   36,000

6/6 - 50,000

[The Winter Game QOTW Survival Game Thread - Good times are just a click away]

Week 3: Yes

[Box Office Casino 2.0]

3 minutes ago, 75Live said:

I bet 25 points to three people that Fantastic Beasts 2 opens to over $78.5m for OW

I'll take this.

[Box Office Theory's Top 50 Horror Movies (2018): THE REVEAL | The countdown is complete! Full list in the first post]

Great job @WrathOfHan, great write ups on each movie, enjoyed the count down a lot.

 

31 movies from my own list made the top 50, but I've seen 44 of the top 50, I should get around to watching the rest.

 

The top movie from my list that didn't get top 50 was Let the Right One In, but it just missed out.

 

Probably the biggest surprise from my own list was that I was the only vote for The Wicker Man (1973), it's an all time classic, but I'm just guessing most don't consider it horror.

[The Winter Game QOTW Survival Game Thread - Good times are just a click away]

Week 2: Yes

[Winter Game Week 2 -]

Part A:

 

1. Will The Grinch Open to more than $65M? 1000 NO

2. Will The Grinch Open to more than $72.5M? 2000 NO

3. Will Spider's Web Open to more than $11M? 3000 NO

4. Will Spider's Web Open to more than $15M? 4000 NO

5. Will the top three new entries combine to more than $90M? 5000 NO

 

6. Will Overlord open in the top 5? 1000 YES

7. Will Bohemian Rhapsody drop less than 45%? 2000 YES

8. Will A Star is Born finish within $1.5M of Nutcracker? 3000 NO

9. Will Goosebumps stay above The hate you Give? 4000 NO

10. Will Hunter Killer have a bigger percentage drop than Halloween? 5000 YES

 

11. Will Venom's PTA stay above $2,000? 1000 YES

12. Will First Man drop more than 62.5%? 2000 NO

13. Will Nobody's Fool stay in the top 7? 3000 YES

14. Will Beautiful Boy increase more than 25% from last weekend? 4000 NO

15. Will Cumberbatch at any point make a person kiss a dog's anus? 5000 NO

 

Bonus: 

 

9/15    5000

10/15   8000

11/15    12,000

12/15   16,000 

13/15    20,000

14/15    24,000 

 15/15   30,000  

 

 

Part B:

 

The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:

 

Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  

2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points

3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points

 

1. What will Grinch make for its 3 day? $61.34m

2. What will Halloween's percentage change be? -57.51%

3. What will Smallfoot's PTA be for the Weekend? $1,540

 

 

Part 😄

 

There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:

 

3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

4. Overlord

6. A Star is Born (2018)

8. Venom (2018)

9. Halloween (2018)

11. The Hate U Give

 

Because I realised bonuses are stupid...

 

1/6   4,000

2/6   10,000

3/6   18,000

4/6   25,000

5/6   36,000

6/6 - 50,000

[Box Office Theory's Top 50 Horror Movies (2018): THE REVEAL | The countdown is complete! Full list in the first post]

My prediction is Halloween, The Shining, Psycho, Jaws, Alien, and then either The Thing or Paranormal Activity as the final 6.

[Box Office Theory's Top 50 Horror Movies (2018): THE REVEAL | The countdown is complete! Full list in the first post]

Just now, Christmas baumer said:

 

Babadook is coming...it'll be top ten because this site has a strange fetish for some bad horror movies, imo.

Babadook has gone, it was 46 on the list.

[Box Office Theory's Top 50 Horror Movies (2018): THE REVEAL | The countdown is complete! Full list in the first post]

25 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

If I'm not mistaken, Halloween, Nightmare on Elm Street and the Shining have yet to make an appearance.

I think those 3 make the top 5, with Psycho and Jaws. Not sure about the rest.

[Box Office Theory's Top 50 Horror Movies (2018): THE REVEAL | The countdown is complete! Full list in the first post]

3 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

@Sheikh....saying it's not cool for me to say that Get Out is nowhere near the horror film that TCM is, is not cool on your part.  TCM is horrifying and it's raw and its visceral and it's a movie that completely messed me up.  Get Out is a great movie.  IMO, it's nowhere near the level that TCM is.  Have you seen the original TCM?

I have. I was bored throughout the movie, lol. I didn't care for it much, it wasn't on my list. I like movies with character development, and TCM, I just didn't care for any of the characters. I know different people like different things from Horror movies, but for me I was just bored.

[SOTM 3 - Oscars are all around Me]

1. The Favourite

2. Green Book

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Vice

6. Bohemian Rhapsody

7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald