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About BugsBunny

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  1. Only if you assume that Solo is playing as an uber-front-loaded, fan-service Star Wars film. If it is playing more towards kids and families (which many have said), the weekend would have a very different shape than Deadpool 2, or prior Star Wars films.
  2. Thursday's Numbers:

    14.1 Solo
  3. Monday Numbers - A:IW 24.74M

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/f-th.htm?page=Mon&p=.htm Guys - unless I'm missing one, the all-time best Monday-on-a-School-Day was in session is Furious 7 at $14mm. This will beat the prior school-in-session Monday record by almost 80%.
  4. "At least" $200mm? Deadpool if it is very, very good and also very, very lucky could approach $400mm. You mean to say that literally HALF of the people who go to see Deadpool would have gone to see A:IW instead with 100% certainty? Even though many of them already saw it... That's ridiculous.
  5. The amazing thing is that this movie did not benefit from including $100 tickets sold for showings of all 7 Star Wars movies on the Thursday of TFA. No one has ever commented on this but I think it’s time to realize that those extra showings all day Thursday simply must have contributed a huge fraction of the space between all the other huge previews in the 35-40 range versus TFA at almost 60.
  6. So help me out with this. I have a theory that this is actually blowing away TFA more than we realize. I recall the day of TFA previews, many theaters were running special 6-movie runs of all the OT/PT movies ahead of TFA. For some reason I have a $100 price point as what these tickets went for in my head. Boxofficemojo doesn't show any revenue for the OT/PT on that date. So did all those super-tickets roll into the TFA preview figure? It would explain how previews could be 50% larger than the next biggest entrees on the all time list. Otherwise, it doesn’t seem realistic to me that on nights where almost all theaters are running at 100% capacity that a film could even have 50% more capacity, much less 50% more box. Thoughts?
  7. Guys... Disney is calling it $225mm for the weekend... On the comparable Friday afternoon Disney called Black Panther $172-198mm for the FOUR day, and it ended up being $242mm, or 20+% above the high end of their range. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4370 Studios are conservative. Disney's prediction should most properly be thought of as the lower end of realistic. Let's not say die just yet to something quite a bit closer to TFA. If Disney says $225mm realistic is probably closer to $240mm right now.
  8. Pretty simple here - Chris Pratt goes for 10 figures this summer. Avengers Infinity War + Jurassic Fallen Kingdom > $1bn DOM. $600 + $400 = $1000? I think so. (P.S. Side debate: Can Samuel L. Jackson get there if you count his A4 Cameo along with Frozone in I2.)
  9. Sure. But the difference between 39 and 45 is 600k people. That's 2% of people who cared enough about the draft to turn it on. To hit 39mm it means perhaps 3.5mm people went to see it last night, or 1% of the US population. NFL fans likely overindex to CBM fans. So we're talking reasonable figures here.
  10. Agree those people will come out for the weekend. Which is why my original point was simply that the internal multiplier could be on the higher end of comparable historical examples.
  11. Not sure if serious... Even I wouldn't make that case, but I definitely think it could be $3-4mm (i.e. 300-400k people or perhaps 1% of the people who watched at least one minute of the NFL draft).
  12. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000348839/article/nfl-draft-sets-ratings-record-with-32-million-viewers It happened in 2014. And the ratings were comparable, down 5% this year...
  13. I'm estimating. It was reported that across three networks it had a 8.3 share, 2014 was reported to have had 33mm viewers with an 8.7 share, so I'm approximating off of that. It was on FOX, ESPN, and NFL Network... and also this was a much more controversial draft than last year.
  14. Okay so let's think about this NFL Draft situation. In 2014 the first round of the NFL draft got 32mm viewers: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000348839/article/nfl-draft-sets-ratings-record-with-32-million-viewers In 2014 the first round of the NFL draft had an 8.7 rating, this year it was an 8.3 rating: https://twitter.com/AustinKarp/status/989882465031458818 That's a 5% lower rating, so figure 30mm people were watching the NFL draft last night. You only need about 100k people for every $1mm of DOM. I think you have to assume there's a decent overlap between opening night CBM attendees and NFL draft watchers. Point is - multiplier could be bigger than we expect if Thursday is artificially deflated by external competition.

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