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BugsBunny

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  1. ...and July 3rd is basically a weekend night for many people.
  2. Nothing new for a while here on a movie that is getting a prime release date not too far off... could this be the guy that gets moved out of a crowded December? Also - anyone else surprised no one from the Poppins/Alita/Aquaman/Bumblebee weekend is trying to jump up in line a week? Why are all the biggest releases slated for the 12/21 weekend when last couple years Star Wars has debuted in the prior equivalent weekend.
  3. So wait - after starting the weekend at 6x CRA on MT and ending the weekend a little under 3x, who here is still surprised it landed at 4x CRA? No one who has been paying attention to the MT ratio should be surprised by this morning’s number. One day someone else will understand this pretty straightforward analysis.
  4. Last Friday CRA did 5.8mm. If it drops 40% that means this Friday could be 3.5mm. Based on the 6x multiplier we would expect to see a $20mm Friday, maybe a little more even. The data is right there to be used.
  5. On MT Nun is at 57.2% and CRA is at 9.6%. So in a decent sample of the overall ticket sales made in the last 24 hours, Nun sales are 6x CRA, which everyone expects to do low teens this weekend. Hmmm.
  6. Less than zero chance of this. September + October is going to be bigger than last year, possibly by a lot, so we are going to gain more ground on 2017 over the next 60 days. We could be nearly $1bn over 2017 going into November, so to miss $11bn you'd have to have November and December down 50%, or in other words to roughly match the box office $ of 1995.
  7. Wow just looked - Metacritic didn't love Prestige. To me it's an endlessly re-watchable classic.
  8. Pretty please can we ignore Insomnia and talk about the ridiculous high quality of Nolan's entire Memento/Batman/Prestige/Batman/Inception/Batman/Interstellar/Dunkirk career?
  9. Both AMCs, one is just the top theater in the metro area, the other in a suburb.
  10. CRA is gonna be a weird one. I'm in a major city, and the dominant, nicest theater is literally almost sold out for the most popular showtimes, and has a fair amount of tickets even at unpopular showtimes. Then I look across town and the theater almost hasn't sold a ticket yet.
  11. If we are assuming A4, Lion King and Star Wars 9... what else could plausibly do it? Most likely probably Captain Marvel pulling a BP or Frozen 2 going crazy. SLOP2? Toy Story 4? WW84?
  12. Per HMNY's SEC filings, in Q1 their total cost of revenue was $136 million. Revenue from subscriptions was $47mm. So that gives us a range of impacts. If all these people would have not gone to any movies if there were no MoviePass, it was a $136mm boost to box office in Q1. If on average these people would have spent the same amount of money to see movies, but saw 100% of the "extra" movies they did above that cost thanks to MoviePass, it was an $89mm boost to box office in Q1. If on average these people would have gone to half those "extra" movies anyway, and just enjoyed the deal they were getting, then maybe it was a $45mm boost to Q1 box office. That's roughly the order of magnitude we are talking about, in Q1. Q2 hasn't been reported and I guess might never be...
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