BugsBunny

What odds do we want to put on this pulling an IT and shocking the world with $100M+? It's not zero, right?

Who is the Club Supreme Court to rule if Deadpool counts for me?

Helping out Universal, maybe we get a breakout from a festival acquisition?

Just for clarification, it wasn’t explicitly stated, but obviously if Marwen does do $100M rather than Mortal Engines, the club wins by its definition. And so also we have the long shot case of one of the loser studios platforming a so-far-unannounced awards movie that eventually gets to $100M.

Locks: Disney - Mary Poppins. WB - Aquaman. I know these both have a wide range of expectations but I don't think anyone expects them to go under $100M. Even Money: Paramount - Bumblebee. The first four movies did $250-$400M. The most recent did $130M. Early buzz on the trailer seemed like it might get people interested to come in at least around the fifth movie if not higher. But far from a lock with recent quality issues in the franchise and the crowded season. I still think it gets there. The Longer Shots: Sony - Spiderverse. There's a lot of content in December, but what other than this is there for kids? Past few years animated content has had a slot in December, even movies like Ferdinand and an Alvin and the Chipmunks sequel made it to $84M+. I think Spidey is a more powerful property and can get the extra $16M and make it over the century mark. Fox - Alita. Maybe no one else agrees, but this looks good to me. I know @IronJimbo will defend me here. The Weakest Link: Universal - Mortal Engines. Even I don't feel that great about this one. But maybe with the extra holiday season week before everything else comes out it can get a little bit of a lead and get there? (Side Club: If Mortal Engines is your only concern, we can lump in Welcome to Marwen and say all studios to have December releases totaling $100M+ at the box office.)

Nothing new for a while here on a movie that is getting a prime release date not too far off... could this be the guy that gets moved out of a crowded December? Also - anyone else surprised no one from the Poppins/Alita/Aquaman/Bumblebee weekend is trying to jump up in line a week? Why are all the biggest releases slated for the 12/21 weekend when last couple years Star Wars has debuted in the prior equivalent weekend.

So wait - after starting the weekend at 6x CRA on MT and ending the weekend a little under 3x, who here is still surprised it landed at 4x CRA? No one who has been paying attention to the MT ratio should be surprised by this morning’s number. One day someone else will understand this pretty straightforward analysis.

Last Friday CRA did 5.8mm. If it drops 40% that means this Friday could be 3.5mm. Based on the 6x multiplier we would expect to see a $20mm Friday, maybe a little more even. The data is right there to be used.

On MT Nun is at 57.2% and CRA is at 9.6%. So in a decent sample of the overall ticket sales made in the last 24 hours, Nun sales are 6x CRA, which everyone expects to do low teens this weekend. Hmmm.

Less than zero chance of this. September + October is going to be bigger than last year, possibly by a lot, so we are going to gain more ground on 2017 over the next 60 days. We could be nearly $1bn over 2017 going into November, so to miss $11bn you'd have to have November and December down 50%, or in other words to roughly match the box office $ of 1995.

Wow just looked - Metacritic didn't love Prestige. To me it's an endlessly re-watchable classic.

Pretty please can we ignore Insomnia and talk about the ridiculous high quality of Nolan's entire Memento/Batman/Prestige/Batman/Inception/Batman/Interstellar/Dunkirk career?

The all-time record for calendar October was in 2014, when we had $758mm. I'm calling for October 2018 to break $1bn. Say it can't be done? 18 months ago we had never had a $1bn+ February or March or April... October is ready to join the club! How do we get there, smashing the recent October range by ~50%? Venom - looking for the Suicide Squad so-bad-it's-good magic - $250mm First Man - after Gravity and Martian, we seem to love a little outer space in October - $200mm Star is Born - bradley cooper + gaga + oscar buzz = hit - $150mm Halloween - It showed us what's possible here - $150mm Those four alone could drive us to $750mm in the month. Then it's just a matter of the long tail taking us home. This would leave September as the only month to never hit $1bn. So will October act like a summer month??? YES! Surf's Up! BugsBunny School's in Session...

Both AMCs, one is just the top theater in the metro area, the other in a suburb.