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Birdo Mandingo

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Everything posted by Birdo Mandingo

  1. wait... So critics what is the job of critics? To inform the audience of whether or not they might enjoy a movie. Or to nominate it for awards? I always believed the point of having critics was to inform audiences. The Academy has their own process for determining quality. Critics exist to communicate to the masses whether or not they will like a movie. They generally do a decent job (in aggregate) but on the individual level I have no faith in them. Just click on reviewers on RT and see their history....
  2. you are a terrible critic if the audience routinely disagrees with you. This is why I like RT in generally. I personally don't give a sh!t about what any individual critic has to say but I do look at the aggregate. It rarely changes my intent on watching a movie, but rather perspective. For instance I was going to see Endgame no matter what. However if the reviews initially were 60s to 70s I would have tempered my expectations. Because of this if the movie was just okay I would have been enjoyed it more because I would have the expectation going in that it was not perfect and hand flaws and I could enjoy it for what it is. In this case it was at 96% when I watched it, so I allowed my hype to stay high going in. And was rewarded. The only critic I ever care for his personal opinion was Roger Ebert. As far as Aladdin, I have not seen it, but kinda want to. I watched the baby so my wife could take our 6 and 8 year old to go see it. My wife really loved it (and she is super hard on the Disney live action remakes, her favorite movie alltime is BatB and she did not care for the live action remake) so I assume it is quite enjoyable.
  3. I still to this day have not seen BatB remake. Just have no desire to. Never got into the original (as a kid, I was WAY more into Alladin and Lion King) My wife on the other hand..... BatB original is her favorite movie alltime, and she made sure to take both of my daughters with her to see the remake. LK IMO is a more neutral movie. Like I am not hyped about it, but I will definitely go see it if someone wants to. Where as BatB I was actively hoping my wife did not want to see it together.... I was glad she wanted to just take the kids... I agree with the poster who highlighted that BatB is not 4 quadrant. It is a chick-flick that most guys can stomach to see with their girl.
  4. It makes sense really, yay Aladdin is only at about 57% on RT, so it is not amazing, but many people like me really want to see it and were just hoping it was not completely terrible. 57% typically tells me it will be a fun watch, but nothing that will blow me away. And for this particular movie that meets the bill. I was completely expecting a Lone Ranger with this one.
  5. this post is great. It so clearly highlights how volatile foreign market comparisons can be(due to exchange rates). Titanic came out 22 years ago, but yet EG with just about the same admissions is barely edging it dollar wise.
  6. seeing that each JW movie has been doubling the previous money made wise I think they definitely will go there.
  7. Saw it today. I liked the 1st 2. But the 3rd is much better. If you want action. This is movie for you.
  8. Definitely not disappointing weekend at all. It is just some people let their irrational exuberance cloud their projections. When actuals come out it will be just about tied, or just missing the 2nd weekend record, people seem to forget that TFA also had CMAS as its Friday which helped inflate the 2nd weekend a good bit. I have been saying 150m is the target all along (50% drop from true weekend last week) but people insisted on apply multipliers from movies that operated on a completely different inferior level to Endgame to come up with 165m PLUS predictions so when the estimate comes in a 145m they are let down. I will never understand why people think it is a good idea to apply multipliers from a movie that was making only 2/3rd or 1/2 of what Endgame was on weekdays, then use those movies multipliers for the weekend. I like you come here from time to time and it always drives me crazy when people makes apples to oranges comparisons and then somehow feel it is a letdown because it could not hold up to it.
  9. It makes sense. You had a max capacity weekend spilling into weekdays, then just 1 day later you are selling tickets at much less. Even with better admission you are going to see a drop.
  10. And if it does a 169m weekend, I think it edges out TFA, beating TFA but falling short of 1 billion. I think we need 180m this weekend we get to start talking about 1 billion.
  11. 25m is what I would define as a very good number, 23m would have been good, 21m would have been meh, anything below would be bad, Lets hope it holds. The 25m the estimate is later than usual, so I would think there was less estimation involved.
  12. okay at this point I assume the numbers are bad. Typically with good numbers Rth is quick to the draw, but not some much with bad numbers..... Going with 21m
  13. The Indian market has insane potential. I hope movies like Endgame help expand it.
  14. I don't think NZ does. I saw on the OS thread they had a map and it was pretty much only US, Canada, Aus, NZ and a few others that don't have a May 1 holiday.
  15. Japanese plays longs, I would say it is probably the least front loaded market it in the world, or at the least of the major markets it is the least front loaded. Reception seems good 80 to 90 is possible. But if it not as well received as I think it is, then ya I see 60 mil is the floor.
  16. Ya, so basically the Philippines alone would offset drops in Europe or just about.
  17. I think 50 to 60 million for UK, Japan, and Germany. 20 in germany 10 in Japan, 20 in Uk. I think France will be really close, close enough I think slight gains in Russia will counterbalance it. Which is why I grouped france separate.
  18. I hope so. If this happens it would have a pretty good shot a 1 billion, like 60-65% chance. I don't see it, or at least not about to get my hopes up. I like 150 as the target back that would be about a 50% drop from last true weekend numbers. If it does say 180, and goes back to a 110 lead, that would also indicate the 2nd week bleed would be like 40 million instead of up to 60 million. So it would go into 3rd weekend still up 70m. Like I said before I essentially see them playing the same after 3rd weekend (with TFA being a bit stronger short term, but EG doing better longterm). But it would give EGs final total about 70-80 million above TFA which of course gets us to 1 billion with some change to spare.
  19. Been thinking about its chances of overtaking TFA. So it basically got a 110 million lead off OW. Through Monday and Tuesday it has given back 7-8 million, tomorrow if it goes like people think and is 23m or so it will give back 15m (TFA actually increased Tuesday to wed), but Thursday wont be as bad because it was Cmas eve for TFA and it dropped hard, either way it looks like it gives back 30 million during weekdays. So and 80 million lead. Think the key this weekend is to just not lose ground on TFA. TFA did 150m I think EG can do that, and maybe a bit better, but lets just say they do about the same and 80 mil lead stays intact. We are really going to bleed next week though. TFA did 31, 29, 28, 23 m-th 2nd week... I see losing 50-60 million, but still hold the lead by 20-30 mil. 3rd weekend TFA did 90m, I think EG will be at worst 75m, go do in the mid 80s. So the lead could be just 5 mil up to 20 mil depending. Now after 3rd weekend TFA comes back to earth for dailies as hit the wasteland of January, but it still had solid holds week to week and got an MLK bump. Then died after the 1st week in Feb. Now with endgame. It also gets a big holiday boost at the 1 month mark in Memorial day, but it will get its late leg days in June. The scenario I see is EG and TFA are basically tied with EG having a slight advantage at the end of weekend 3. TFA overtaking EG during 3rd weekdays and 4th weekend and building a 10-15 million lead but EG will play solidly deep into the summer and pass it back up in late June early July and settle on about 950 mil domestic. It really rides on this 2nd weekend. To me as long as it does not lose ground this weekend to TFA it has a chance to hold on and take the Dom crown. So 150 million gives it a chance, something like a 165 gives us a lock and a shot at 1 billy.
  20. Europe as a whole might break even with TFA. France, UK, Germany are only 3 I don't see it matching TFA, but it will likely out preform TFA in the rest of Europe. Italy is a lock Spain looks good. Like you said Russia. And I think EG will crush TFA in the old Iron curtain countries (TFA preformed poorly there because most of those countries did not have the nostalgia factor the west did) I think it is possible, EG will outpace TFA in Europe as a whole, key factor being how much EG falls short in those 3 markets.
  21. I wonder what logic led him to believe that... 1. People who missed CM on release but got caught up in the Endgame hype going to check it out before endgame 2. The millions of people doing MCU rewatches in prep for Endgame... and had to go back to the theater to rewatch CM.
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