REC

I'm pulling for this one. There's an interesting (if not spotty legacy) in the invisible man category... Hollow Man, The Invisible Man (Chevy Chase). The concept gets rebooted into something else every 15 years or so and veers from comedy/scifi to horror/scifi/drama to adventure/action/comedy and now this. In the past these movies have done innovative things with visual effects at the time... usually the fx of subtraction and compositing. But a pure horror/thriller in this category sounds smart. I'll admit though the marketing has so far confused me. I thought I was looking at a domestic abuse drama but by the end of the trailer I'm told its something more like scifi/thriller/horror. That makes me a little worried they're having a hard time figuring out how to market it.

I've pretty consistently thought that ep9 was going to massively underperform and do about 950m WW. Guess it's going to beat my expectations by just a bit.

And IMDb gives it a 6.9/10, which matches my expectation that a fair score is mid 60s.

Is it possible that the RT audience score just isn’t all that trustworthy, or a very good representative sample of what people actually think? The all audiences score is more like 78, and the top critics is more like 49. Personally I think the true value is closer to the average of these numbers. I’m more in line with top critics, but I would concede some people will think “that movie was a pretty-OK movie” meaning the truth is probably closer to mid-60s.

TROS dom under F2 dom

I'm wondering how TROS compares to other extremely frontloaded movies with no legs. I have a feeling this is going to fall off a cliff completely, and the vast majority of its theatrical earnings are already earned. Of course since it made 720m or whatever and assuming it can squeek out 1.1bn, the above statement would be true. But I still think the underperformance will be strong with this one, shocking most all of us. I'm still going to be surprised if it goes over 1bn.

Are you saying it's not dropping off a cliff?

Only 94m in the 2nd weekend internationally? That sounds horrible for legs. I mean what, next weekend internationally will be sub-40m? How in the world does this make it past 1b WW?

It really will be the justice league of Star Wars movies. A collapse for sure. The reasons for the collapse are debatable, but a collapse nonetheless.

I don't think this is a very convincing sample size yet. TLJ has over 200k user scores, and I think there's a chance that 11k reviews from 'verified audiences' is largely of Thurs night diehards and is self-selecting. I'd like to see at least 100k users before we have some kind of representative consensus.

They're not afraid of puns. MC seemed like they were also in a really salty mood:

I'll be surprised if it has a good total.

I'm skeptical of all the numbers, we're dealing with projections still. Of course I shouldn't be surprised if it does have a successful OW, but conversely I don't think anyone pulling for this movie to succeed should be surprised if it collapses bizarrely. I'm dying to know how this sorts out. Also there's already conspiracies forming among the detractors of this movie that the RT audience score is being flooded with bots and fake accounts to boost it up. There's no way I know to prove or disprove thinking like this, but if it holds higher than the critic score I think that will be a suspicion going forward in that community. All this crap with RT critic and audience scores seems to cut both ways... if it doesn't fit your particular belief then it must be fake somehow. I bristle every time someone claims a negative audience score must be getting review bombed somehow, these accusations are out of control. It's really too bad this is as good as our critiquing system gets, that we can't even get a consensus around the consensus.

How does Solo fit into the theory of too big to fail? Not a snark, honestly curious. We've heard this before... its too big to fail. The fans always show up. Etc etc. They said that about Solo, and then it didn't happen. Seems like too big to fail is true until it isn't.

I think a lot of people are going to be shocked... nay perplexed at the peculiar Justice League-style numbers Ep9 gets.