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About Taruseth

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  1. BB3 should considering all most all movies end up with a 3x get above 1.3M (a 3x of weekend WO Previews). 1917's trend hasn't changed. Lindenberg does okay, it could have good legs. SW9 is slightly above the first trend, that would be at least something. Hoping for 5.2M in the end. Knives Out should leg it past 1M in the end, but that will only happen barely. Frozen is 30k above the 2nd trend, should be around 6.4M after the weekend and considering it dropped so little despite 3 new releases it should surely get to 6.65M, hopefully even close 6.7M. This will be it's ninth weekend above 100k (only movie with more this year is Geheimnis which had 10.)* Jumanji with a good drop too (higher than KO and FII, but that is okay after the holds it had before). Still should be around 2.22M after the weekend and so a final around Pets 2 still looks likely. Geheimnis should pass 5M today. And I'd say a total barely above Endgame is still doable, meaning endgame would drop to #5 (below Frozen, TLK, TROS and Geheimnis). Kaninchen around 700k after the weekend. Spies in Disguise with an amazing drop (probably thanks to now kids movies opening), probably around 475k after the weekend, total of 600k? Which would still be the lowest by far for an animated movie by Blu Sky. And twelve movies above 50k, that's nice, seven above 100k is nice too. Overall I'd say January was of to a better start than I thought (especially considering SW9 performing below TLJ and not slightly above as I hoped). Most weekends above 100k: 2019: Geheimnis 10; Frozen II 9; TLK 8; Green Book 7; 2018: Fantastic Beast II 8, BR 8 (5+3 in-between 2 weekends below); Junge...frische Life 7; 2017: Despicable Me III 7; TLJ & FJG III 6; La La Land 6 (5+1 in-between 2 weekends) - didn't really took a look probably a whole lot more of 6 week movies; 2016: Zoomania: 8; Hartmann: 8; (6+2); Pets 2: 7 (6+1) and Revenant, Finding dory, Ice Age 5 and Me Before You had 6 weekends. So overall 3 movies with nice legs last year, I don't think this year has that strength. outside of a german surprise we are in for a grim year, because: What big franchise opens a movie outside of James Bond: If one looks at the top franchises (above 20M) of the past 21 years (1999-2019) or so: (above 10M, above 9M, above 6M, above 5M, above 3M) HP: 69.948M (10 movies - 1, 2, 7, 8, 10) LotR/Hobbit: 51.811M (6 movies - 3, 3, 6, 6, 6) SW: 45.808M (8 movies - 0, 1, 2, 6, 7 - one at 1.364M) Marvel: 37.983M (21 movies - 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 - 4 more above 2M)*** 007: 35,131M (6 movies - 0, 0, 2, 4, 6) Ice Age: 34.377M (5 movies - 0, 0, 4, 4, 4 - one at 2.925M) PotC: 26.559M (5 movies - 0, 0, 3, 3, 4 - one at 2.694M) FJG: 21.282M (3 movies - 0, 0, 3, 3, 3) F&F: 20.620M (9 movies - 0, 0, 0, 0, 2)** Despicable Me: 17.788M (4 movies - 0, 0, 1, 1, 3 - one at 2.522M) Madagascar: 16.751M (3 movies - 0, 0, 2, 2, 3)* *Had this in and then realised this only had 3 movies. **Two outliners with average of 1.808M (Marvel) & 2.291M (F&F). Only other franchise below a 5M average is Despicable Me at 4.447M. Might try to look for all franchises above 10M, though that theoretically would include Avatar (1 movie) and above 10M would also be the movie Schuh des Manitus. And probably a lot of other movie franchises. Even the likes of Frozen would qualify (around 11.15M right now - so average of 5.58M)
  2. I expected Bad Boys to open below 200k. lol (I know that insidekino predicted 400k, but I kinda thought it was dead), but it should get past 1M admissions pretty easily and end above 1.25M I don't really know, but you are probably right, so 4.935-4.945M after the weekend... -> Thinking that SW9 and Geheimnis will all end around endgame, so we probably will have 3 movies between 5.1M and 5.2M. Knives would be at 665k after a 120k weekend. Thinking it will hit 1M but probably not get much further. So end of the year list would look like this: Frozen 2: 6.65M TLK: 5.55M TROS: 5.15M Geheimnis: 5.15M Endgame: 5.13M Joker: 4.1M Pets 2.48M Jumanji: 2.48M
  3. I honestly though that the major SW markets (UK, Ger, JP, Fra and Aus) would make up a higher share of the OS total. But they actually only make up about half of the OS gross. MM of OS: (UK was biggest OS for all of them, in brackets is a % number if the share of the OS gross was the highest for a specific market with that movie) TFA: 48.17% (UK - highest: 15.91%) RO: 46.59% (Ger - lowest: 8.89%, Japan - lowest: 7.48%) TLJ: 52.06% Solo: 47.94% (Aus - highest: 7.2%, Fra - lowest: 6.31%,). TROS: 51.8% (UK - lowest 13.96%; Ger - highest: 11.99%, Japan - highest: 10.62%, France - highest: 9.39%, Aus - lowest 5.85%)
  4. I'd actually say SW9 drop is good considering the circumstances (and even compared to drops like Hobbit 2 ones (which dropped 60.5% on this weekend back in 2013)) Though it in the end still will end more than 1M below Frozen 2. Thinking that they are headed for: Frozen 2: 6.65M (so back to what I though (don't know 2 weeks ago or so) TROS: 5.4M (100k lower) Jumanji TNL: 2.45M (a little below Pets) Knives Out: 1.15M (going optimistic here) Kaninchen: 1M (before edit: 900k) Geheimnis: 5.1M (around Endgame)
  5. That would be based on what you consider the series (or if you count only BRD or add DDR numbers too), if you only mean the sequel trilogy then you would be correct. But if you'd look at BRD numbers only and all 9 movies (so all Episodes) it would only be the third lowest, ESB and ROTJ had only 5.05M admissions (within 2k of each other incl. their 1997 reissue). And it falling short of AOC and ROTS has been what was predicted since OD. As they ended with 5.7M and 5.6M. But I'd still say TROS should get too around 5.5M. I'd say Jumanji has a solid shot as it's probably less Christmas heavy compared to Frozen (I know not Christmas themed but still has a kinda christmasy vibe to it).
  6. 3rd trend by insidekino.de: TROS: 600k (-45%)* (down 25k) Frozen II: 375k (-23%)** (up 25k) (total around 6.06M) Jumanji - TNL: 330k (-18%) (up 10k)*** KO: 250k (up 30k! from the last trend)**** Kaninchen: 160k (-13% / -30%) (up 15k) Geheimnis: 155k (+1%!!!!!!)*+* (up 15k) Spies Undercover: 140k (+18% / -4.5%) (up 20k)*+** Charlie's Angels: 80k Cats: 40k (-52% / -63%) (up 2.5k) Igel: 40k (+18% / -11%) (up 5k) Rabe Socke: 37.5k (-13%) (up 10k) Judy: 32.5k (up 5k) *drop is too harsh, 625k would have been better, especially if actuals would have come in above like last week, a 40% drop would be significantly nicer than a 45% one (I know the difference isn't big, but next two weekends most likely will have similar drops and after that with 3*40% drops the weekend would be 236k and 3*45% drops it would be 182k (so quite a difference). **This would be 10th best 7th weekend (beating Aladdin (357,222) and only 1k behind Harry Potter 2 (376,056) so it has a solid chance at 9th best 7th weekend of all time. It should now definitely get past 6.5M (and 6.65M is rather likely as total, but it most likely won't get much further (might even fall short by like 10-20k). *** Damn, this really can end up above Pets 2 as highest movie outside of the Disney four-punch (Frozen, TLK, TROS, Endgame), Geheimnis and Joker (so the 4+M movies) ****Nice opening (maybe with good legs and good WOM this could be the first Millionaire of the year (don't count on it) don't really know of a comp. *+*I stay with my point from before the weekend this will end up above Endgame. *+**Maybe this movie in the end miraculously will get above 1M like all other Blue Sky movies
  7. Avatar had some of the most favourable ER, ATP in $ in Germany is still higher for Avatar than for any other movie. Highest ATP in € ist TLJ with €11.77, which would translate to $14.1 (from 2015-2019 december 2017 / January 2018 had the most favourable ER €1≈$1.2, a year earlier (RO) or two (TFA) it was like €1≈$1.05-1.10). Avatar had ATP €10.14 would translate to roughly $14.2 (tried to take somewhat average ER during it's run, as they dropped towards the end) Just for comp reason TFA was €11.32 would be roughly $12.25. And Titanic was in a totally different world admissions wise, in Germany it still after all this years is the highest grossing movie (in € (or DM to €)), in dollar it's Avatar, due to the ER being really bad before 2004 and after 2012/2013/2014. For a movie to top Avatar, ER would need to return to 2008/2009/2010 rates for both € and £ and maybe even DK, NK and SK (scandinavian currency) (they seem kinda bad too right now). EMEA is mainly (UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Benelux, Scandinavia, Austria and Switzlerand) developed markets that don't really grow and markets like Russia have really big ER problems. @Jedi Jat do you know EMEA dollar numbers for Avatar, Titanic and TFA, cause BOM numbers are kinda stupid as they randomly towards the end of TFA's run took like $20M away from the UK due to ER drops (Brexit referendum).
  8. 2nd trend by insidekino.de: TROS: 625k (-43%)* Frozen II: 350k (-28%)** Jumanji - TNL: 320k (-21%) KO: 220k Kaninchen: 145k (-21% / -37%) Geheimnis: 140k (-8.5%)*** Spies Undercover: 120k (+1% / -18%) Charlie's Angels: 80k Cats: 37.5k (-55% / -65%) Igel: 35k (+3% / -22%) Rabe Socke: 27.5k (-36%) Judy: 27.5k *would only be the 2nd biggest third weekend for a 2019 movie (behind Frozen 2 with 708k). **8k more to beat Aladdin for 10th biggest seventh weekend of all time, but obviously the biggest seventh weekend for a 2019 movie, right now that would be Geheimnis with 143k. If those weekend are counted towards 2020 than we probably already have the biggest thirds and seventh weekend of the year. Baring a surprise of a Germany movie, I'd say that most of the top weekends this year theoretically should belong to TROS and Frozen 2. But they lucky for the movies this year will all be counted towards last year. *** easily the biggest tenth weekend of the year, more than two and a half times the previous one (TLK with 54k); to be the 10th biggest tenth weekend of the year it would need to beat Schindler's List (183,801 admissions on that weekend) , which won't happen. Another weekend with 3 movies above 300k, the third in a row, before that I think the last weekend like that was in Weekend 52 - 2017 (28th-31st December) the 1st weekend of 2018 barely missed #3 had 298k admissions. Btw that weekend looked kinda similar to this, in first place was TLJ (849k) and in third Jumanji (314k), but between them was a German Movie - Dieses bescheuerte Herz with 318k.
  9. 1st trend by insidekino.de: TROS: 600k (4.36M total) Frozen II: 340k (total 6.025M) Jumanji TNL: 300k (1.81M) Knives Out: 190k Kaninchen: 130k (440k) Geheimnis: 120k (4765k) Spione Undercover: 120k (320k) 3 Engel: 70k
  10. So New Years Weekdays frame (Monday to Wednesday) was worth: UK: $7.5M Ger: $4.3M Fra: $3.9M Jp: $8.5M Aus: $2.9M Ch: $1.3M Mex: $1M Italy: $1.1M Brazil: $0.7M Japan obviously being the clear outliner with a lot of people watching movies over the New Years frame, not so much in other countries (apart from the UK). Doesn't look that bad in the top markets, but also not really good. No idea about the coming weekend, hoping it will look nicer overall.
  11. TLK is #4, behind Avatar, Titanic and TFA.
  12. No idea, which countries could even have days that high? Most likely only the big ones, so UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy. UK was already answered. I don't exactly know the highest day in Germany, but no OD (24h hours only) in Germny was ever above 620k (Lord of the Rings 3 - 616k) admissions and even with a lot of previews no movie was above 710k (Star Wars III - 706k). And even considering all days no day ever was above 850k (I think maybe HP1 first Saturday was the highest day ever with something a little below 850k). Regarding Spain I don't think Spain is big enough, considering the highest OWEnd is only 1.6M, so probably no day above 500k. France 850k - Spectre (Don't know if any day during Ch'tis OWend or so was higher). If you include Russia, then no, because Endgame opened with 1.71M admissions (on a Monday).
  13. The weekdays for Frozen II were around 180k, so 5685k total as of New Years Day (source: Mark G on Insidekino.de forums), so a 315k weekend would lead to 6M by Sunday (5th Jan), but I am hoping for a higher weekend. Let's see how close this gets to 7M, yesterday my prediction was 6.65M for the total, still thinking that is where it's most likely heading but maybe it can hold better.
  14. For Germany you get basically all information on insidekino.de, but here a short overview over this year (numbers as of Sunday, the 29th December): My Final Guess for those 23 movies: All-Time gross list (1962-2019) – means ordered according to their gross not admissions-count: In admissions Frozen 2 will be around #65. While no other movie will enter the Top 100. Number of movies above a certain admissions number (starting 2000):
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