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Taruseth

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About Taruseth

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  • Birthday July 22

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  1. Pretty much every European countries looks like that currently, at least the major 4 (/5); Germany had 2967 new cases and 2 deaths. Current numbers are 12327 (+2967) cases 105 (+34) recovered 28 (+2 previous days were 9, 4 and 4) deaths. And Chancellor Merkel for the first time (outside of the new years speeches) had a televised (pre-recorded) speech in her 14 years in that position.
  2. Some numbers in comp with the same starting point as last time - remember this are only the confirmed numbers: 17.03.2020 evening numbers : Italy has 3526 new cases (up from 3233 the previous day – before that 3590 and before that 3497). Spain has 1820 new cases (down from 2130 the previous day – before that 1407 and 1159 cases)) Germany has 2088 new cases in Germany (up from 1459 – before that 1228 and 910). France has 1097 new cases (down from 1233 – before that 900 and 838) USA has 1622 new cases (up from 1356 – before that 623 and 316) Surprisingly low number in France and really high number in Germany - US number might seem high but one should remember that 327.2M people live in the US while 46.66M live in Spain, 60.48M in Italy, 66.99M in France and 82.79M in Germany. 1/3 increase just as a rough outline - confirmed cases stop following that line after something around 5 to 7 days. I find the low increases in the small countries kinda weird... Question is how many new cases could a country even confirm on a day. If setting a new starting point: 4500 cases it still looks like this: 33.33% Italy Germany France Spain USA 6th March 14th March 14th March 13th March 16th March 0 4500 4636 4585 4500 5232 4557 1 6000 5883 5813 5400 6391 6061 2 8000 7375 7272 6633 7798 3 10666,6667 9172 9360 7730 9928 4 14222,2222 10149 11748 5 18962,963 12462 6 25283,9506 15113 7 33711,9342 17660 8 44949,2455 21157 9 59932,3274 24747 10 79909,7699 27980 11 106546,36 31506 Only Spain has a higher starting point. Maybe this needs a lower line, more like 25% increases. I'd say Germany most likely will follow Italy to more than 30k cases as will the USA; France and Spain are likely albeit I'd say slower to due their hard responses. The UK is the big question mark...
  3. I'd say it's going to get worse isn't what I would call it, Cinemaxx, Cinestar closed all their cinemas and some states have closed all, so I'd say today there probably were less than 1k people in cinema and by Thursday all cinemas will be closed.
  4. These rumours have been going around for years now - and yes, even so it would totally go against all previous takeovers done by Apple (biggest was Beats I think worth something like 2-3B) Disney would be 50-100 worth that. Theoretically it could happen, but who knows.
  5. I think they will keep all things shutdown until easter. Also I'd say all cinemas in Germany will close over the week and will stay closed until after easter at least. DAX below 9000 points (last in year 2016). I think if it takes longer than easter to relax again we will see the DAX way lower and I'd say unemployment rate will go up to 10% or so.
  6. Everytime I read this headline, my mind goes, "the end is near and so I face the final curtain. My friend, I'll say it clear..."
  7. I think box office in Germany will drop to zero in the coming week, considering more and more cities are closing cinemas. Also the number of recovered cases looks really weird in most countries, how the hell does Spain have over 500 recovered cases but Germany has 46 and France 12?
  8. Italy Germany France Spain USA CH Norway Sweden NL DK UK BE AT 27th Feb*^ 7th March 6th March 8th March 9th March 11th March 12th March 13th march 14th march 650 684* 613 674 643 635 621 649 614 676 591 559 655 888 847* 949 1231 911 849 995 814 804 804 799 689 1128 1112* 1126 1695 1182 1137 1056 961 962 836 1140 1694 1565** 1412 2277 1577 1375 2036 1908 1784 3126 2144 2502 2745^ 2281 5232 2460 3089 3675 2876 6391 3858 4585 3662 4636 4500 5883 7375 9172 10149*L 12462 15113 17660 21157 *^ Means starting date, the day it had around 600 cases. *8am CET, ** all after this are 9pm CET due to the NRW (more than 40% of all cases) not reporting cases to RKI (on 10th and 11th March) so based on data collected by the local health institutes for each state. ^the number is 8 pm CET an apparently the 3pm RKI numbers is 2369 *L Means that new cases in the Lombardy are missing, but they all got added in during the next day CH= Switzerland NL= Netherlands DK= Denmark BE= Belgium AT= Austria Italy has 3497 new cases (up from 2547 the previous day). 1159 new cases in Spain and 910 new cases in Germany. France has 838 new cases. Together they added 6404 new cases. Apparently, Denmark has changed who gets tested, so only people with clear signs get tested, don’t know if that is actually true.
  9. Italy Germany France Spain USA CH Norway Sweden NL DK UK BE AT 27th Feb*^ 7th March 6th March 8th March 9th March 11th March 12th March 13th march 13th march 650 684* 613 674 614 635 621 649 614 676 591 559 504 888 847* 949 1231 927 849 995 814 804 804 799 1128 1112* 1126 1695 1203 1137 1694 1565** 1412 2277 1561 2036 1908 1784 3126 2269 2502 2745^ 2281 5232 3089 3675 2876 3858 3662 4636 5883 7375 9172 10149*L 12462 15113 17660 *^ Means starting date, the day it had around 600 cases. *8am CET, ** all after this are 9pm CET due to the NRW (more than 40% of all cases) not reporting cases to RKI (on 10th and 11th March) so based on data collected by the local health institutes for each state. ^the number is 8 pm CET an apparently the 3pm RKI numbers is 2369 *L Means that new cases in the Lombardy are missing, but they all got added in during the next day CH= Switzerland NL= Netherlands DK= Denmark BE= Belgium AT= Austria 2000+ new infections in Spain and in Italy! Germany almost 1000 new cases, France almost 800 new cases. I think that the impact of this will go beyond the people that get infected and die and the economic problems following it, I also think this will hurt the EU as it showed that its completely unable to handle something like this. Furthermore, regarding Germany, cases grow faster than in comparison to Italy – not a good sign, at least the past few days. And even school closures were decided by each state (there are 16 in Germany) (all but one reached a decision by now) and not by the central government, a federal republic at its best. Also, there are 17 pandemic emergency plans, one from Germany and one from each state (what a mess). Seems like Germany is performing awfully. If the current trend continuous it should be past 10k cases on the 18th. Spain might be above that on Sunday evening. Will most likely put them in a graph tomorrow.
  10. I don't think that is pessimistic, considering the first cities are closing and cinemas and I guess most of western Germany will eventually follow, considering schools and universities are closed in most parts.
  11. Italy Germany France Spain USA CH Norway Sweden NL DK UK 27th Feb*^ 7th March 6th March 8th March 9th March 11th March 12th March 650 684* 613 674 614 635 621 649 614 676 591 888 847* 949 1231 927 849 1128 1112* 1126 1695 1203 1694 1565** 1412 2277 1573 2036 1908 1784 3059 2502 2745^ 2281 3089 2876 3858 4636 5883 7375 9172 10149*L 12462 15113 *^ Means starting date = the day it had around 600 cases. *8am CET, ** all after this are 9pm CET due to NRW (more than 40% of all cases) not reporting cases to the RKI (on 10th and 11th March) so instead its based on data collected by the local health institutes for each state, who all should do the reporting to the RKI. ^the number is 8 pm CET an apparently the 3pm RKI numbers is 2369 *L Means that new cases in the Lombardy are missing, but they all got added in during the next day CH= Switzerland NL= Netherlands DK= Denmark Based on those numbers that don’t say that much, France is doing slightly better than Italy, but Germany and Spain are doing worse – question is if any efforts taken would even have any effect on the data for the next week or two.
  12. Country Italy Germany France Spain USA Starting date 27th Feb 7th March 6th March 8th March 9th March 650 684* 613 674 614 888 847* 949 1231 927 1128 1112* 1126 1695 1023*** 1694 1565** 1412 2277 2036 1908** 1784 2502 2281 3089 3858 Starting date means the day it had around 600-700 cases. *8am CET, **9pm CET due to the NRW (more than 40% of all cases) not reporting cases to RKI so based on data collected by the local health institutes for each state. *** that looks too low. Shows that Germany and France roughly follow Italy as does the USA and Spain is having higher increases.
  13. You are making one mistake in your arguments, no one tries to contain the flu, there is a vaccine so nothing happens and it just spreads without stoping unless it reaches someone that got vaccinated. And a lot of people don't get the flu vaccine. Someone that has Corona is put into quarantine as soon as possible, which means less people will get infected in that case. The R0 are referring to how many person will be infected without anyone interfering and should always been taken with a gran of salt. The R0 number for the measles is something above 15 (most of the times said to be between 12 and 18), means it spreads insanely fast but as more than 95% are vaccinated (at least in Germany, scandinavia etc.) an outbreak will most of the time stay really small and infect less than 1000 people and almost all of these are part of groups that decided to not vaccinate because of religious bullshit (sorry, but that is the truth) or some conspiracy theories etc. but considering less and less people are getting the vaccine the measles slowly are making a return (Smallpox has 5-7, while Ebola has 1,5-2,5 and MERS below 0.8).
  14. And a big amount are linked to Heinsberg and carnival which tend to have a lot of people below 60 as well, which probably together with what you said - the high number of people that returned from skiing trips - are the main reason for the still low number of deaths. And I am not certain that Germany is doing a good job, no one releases any testing numbers and the RKI seems to have gone into a holiday yesterday, which means that there are no official numbers for the past 24 hours. The RKI number still stands at 1139 for yesterday, while other sources already say 1458 cases as of this evening. Which means only looking at confirmed cases it's still following Italy just as all other major European countries do. In Bremen (smallest state) 17 new cases got added today (total now 22) and 15 of them returned from skiing in northern Italy on Sunday.
  15. That's not fully correct, Italy has about 22% above 65 years and Germany around 21.3% so basically the same. France, Spain are lower though at around 18.5%. And spending in health care doesn't mean it's good, highest spending is in the USA by far! I wouldn't say that the health care system is far better though (might be slightly better - no idea). Italy has 9%; France/Sweden/Germany etc have around 11-12% compared to like 18% of the GDP or so for the USA. Also the RKI (kinda like the CDC but with less influence overall) seems to have gone into holiday, considering their 3 pm update yesterday was like 6 hours late and now update today (no 8 am nor a 3 pm one and it's almost 7 pm).
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