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  1. Taruseth


    I hope it gets that high, but Thursday suggests otherwise right now, but you maybe know a lot more because I only know the released Thursday numbers for last weekend and this weekend and the internal multiplier last weekend which should be roughly the same this weekend as far as I didn't forget any special holidays. And furthermore this (from German box office website insidekino)
  2. Taruseth


    Are those the numbers for the 3day weekend in all countries? Because for Germany $3.3M would mean 270k adm sold on just Friday to Sunday and Thursday was about 26k adm (drop of roughly 42% compared to last weekend) which for the whole weekend would mean a drop to 225-230k and $2.75M and excluding friday 200k and $2.4M.
  3. Taruseth


    It could, of course, be lower, I'd say right now 700 ±50 (or more precise 695±20). And there are quite some uncertainties like did the Endgame trailer help? Will Endgame help? etc. Will a big (local) movie kill CM in a specific market. Some markets might develop amazing late legs. But this is based on 2nd weekend and weekdays and comparison to other Superhero movies (and with the information from other people) The only countries I have a little idea about are the US (there are so many people on here that posted detailed analysis about prior movies and Germany.
  4. Taruseth


    We have the first and second weekend and it's a superhero movie they all perform pretty similar and most of the time the weekend drop gives a good idea for the final gross. And if you check the specific threads than you would see that in those people are estimating what it final gross could be (the France number, for example, is the, in that thread, estimated final adm. count 3.25M (based on weekend drop and comparison to other superhero movies) multiplied by average ticket price for CM). You are definitely right on that Rest gross though that is just a rough guess based on the weekend drop that most likely will be off by quite a lot.
  5. Those BR late late late legs are f*cking impressive, like damn, in the beginning, it looked like it would get to 2M and then 2.5 and then 3, then we were wondering if it could get past 3.2M and then thought it would fall short of IW by a little and now it passed IW with a 40k weekend and should get to 3.5M and I kinda hope that it's almost flat this coming weekend and gets past Junge. (Also it was the second biggest OS market during the weekend behind Japan and in front of China (previews) and the Netherlands)
  6. Taruseth


    Thanks I would theoretically go with more than 2m adm in Germany, but I am not 100% certain. For 26M it would need about 2.17M adm (Average ticket price is $12) not sold on that, but it certainly is possible, would be a 3.4x. Ups... So more like that (changed order based on est final gross) and (% grossed in the first week (7-9 days)) China: 155M (69.7%) (7 days) UK: 45M (49.3%) (7 days) SK: 43M (65.8%) (9 days) Brazil: 38M (46.6%) (8 days) Mexico: 34M (48.5%) (7 days) Aus: 28M (49.3%) (8 days) Ger: 26M (38%) (8 days) France: 25M (44%) (9 days) Jp: 22M (34.5%) (7 days) Indonesia: 20M (68.5%) (9 days) Russia: 20M (64.5%) (8 days) India: 15M (63.7%) (7 days) Rest: 225M (This is probably of so much) (51.3%) (this seems pretty good when compared to some of the other markets) So it has short legs in Asia (China, Sk, Indonesia, Russia (okay that is population wise Europe), India have >60% in the first week) Then UK, Aus, Mexico, Brazil between 46 and 50% in the first week and France with 44% (despite opening on Wednesday) And Germany and Japan with less than 40% during the first 8/7 days That would be 696M damn it needs to get that additional 4M somewhere.
  7. Taruseth

    Bohemian Rhapsody OS: $660M OS | $876M WW

    MARCH 15–17, 2019 Country (click to view chart) Rank Days in Wknd Weekend Gross % Change Screens/ Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # FOREIGN TOTAL 10 3 $1,684,367 -37.7% - -46 - $664,051,169 21 China 12 3 $350,448 - - - - $350,448 0 Australia 14 4 $54,088 -65.4% 79 -45 $685 $38,762,612 20 Czech Republic 8 4 $45,978 -9.6% 52 -1 $884 $10,886,033 20 Norway 8 3 $37,023 -10.0% 20 -4 $1,851 $6,868,367 20 Hungary 13 4 $15,912 +17.7% 65 - $245 $3,325,916 20 South Africa 11 3 $11,588 -35.2% 19 -5 $610 $2,960,842 16 New Zealand 15 4 $10,344 -41.1% 29 -7 $357 $5,252,800 20 Iceland 3 3 $5,579 +114.0% 1 - $5,579 $606,819 20 Slovakia 14 4 $4,395 -16.8% 8 -2 $549 $2,782,065 20 Portugal 21 4 $4,005 -39.4% 6 -3 $668 $3,487,596 20 Slovenia 13 3 $3,256 -31.6% 8 - $407 $1,237,624 20 Romania 19 3 $2,745 -38.4% 8 -3 $343 $2,186,944 20 Bulgaria 15 3 $1,622 -30.6% 8 - $203 $963,650 20 Lithuania 28 3 $118 -44.1% 1 - $118 $1,394,094 20 And it's still there 1.334M without China Some additional countries: JP: $470,000 (-34%) (Rank 10 WK 19) Ger: $440,000 (-23%) (Rank 11 adm. and Rank 9 €/$ WK 20) Netherlands: $200,000 (-26%) (Rank 7 WK 20) (This is crazy #2 All-Time in € and €1M ahead of #3 Spectre (€20.5M) and €4M behind Titanic)
  8. Taruseth


    I added the length of week one (as the movie started on Wednesday/Thursday/Friday based on country. And what will the final gross most likely be in the different countries? China: 160M UK: 45M Brazil: 35M SK: 45M? Mexico: 34M India: 20M? Aus: 28M Indonesia: 20M Russia: 20M Ger: 24M France: 25M Jp: 25M Rest: 225M That would be 706M 😱
  9. Taruseth

    Bohemian Rhapsody OS: $660M OS | $876M WW

    Yeah, Superhero movies have 3D and Imax (Don't know if there is anything else in Germany and there are like just 6 Imax cinema halls in Germany, so the main difference is 3D). And the 3D share is really high here.
  10. That would be quite nice. 400k weekend would mean about 1.175M in total. That should lock a total of over 2M.
  11. Should get to 70M with that. 19.05M 30.5M (+60.15) 21M (-31.5%) (70.55) Which would mean that their still would be no movie between 65.3 and 70.5M (though right now that gap is up to Spider-Man with 71.417M) The second weekends are quite interesting. TFA as a gigantic frontrunner Four movies between 103 and 115M B&tB with 90.4M (I didn't remember that it was this big). I2 with 80.3M Than 10 movies between 78 and 71M And then below 65.3M all other 2nd weekends.
  12. Movie Total adm O Weekend Multiplier 2018 TOP 10: Fantastic Beasts 2 3.863M 0.995M 3.88 Junge 3.5M 0.543M 6.45 BR 3.45M 0.398M 8.67 Infinity War 3.4M 1.075M 3.16 Fifty Shades 3 3.007M 0.725M 4.14 Hotel Transylvania 3 2.541M 0.355M 7.16 Jurassic World 2 2.404M 0.574M 4.19 Grinch 2.274M 0.333M 6.83 Deadpool 2 2.242M 0.661M 3.39 Incredibles 2 2.193M 0.423M 5.18 HT 3 started on Monday, the number is just the 4-Day Weekend, Thursday to Sunday 2017 TOP 10: Fack Ju Göhte 3 6.136M 1.726M 3.56 SW - TLJ 5.905M 1.627M 3.63 Despicable Me 3 4.65M 0.851M 5.46 Fifty Shades 2 3.457M 0.847M 4.08 B&tB 3.430M 0.864M 3.97 F&F 8 3.241M 1.145M 2.83 It 3.17M 0.937M 3.38 PotC 5 2.694M 0.577M 4.67 GotG 2 2.516M 0.75M 3.35 Bescheurte Herz 2.138M 0.159M 13.45 The last movie opened over Christmas Weekend (that means dead Sunday) 2016 TOP 10: Solo 3.994M 1.001M 3.99 Finding Dory 3.922M 0.876M 4.48 Pets 3.848M 0.706M 5.45 Zootopia 3.845M 0.69M 5.57 Willkommen 3.839M 0.469M 8.19 Fantastic Beasts 1 3.539M 0.827M 4.28 Ice Age 5 2.925M 0.443M 6.6 The Revenant 2.827M 0.38M 7.44 Deadpool 2.738M 0.714M 3.83 Sing 2.472M 0.385M 6.42 2015 TOP 10: SW - TFA 9.06M 2.139M 4.24 Fack Ju Göhte 2 7.734M 2.115M 3.66 Spectre 7.089M 1.681M 4.22 Minions 6.946M 0.935M 7.43 Fifty Shades 1 4.42M 1.353M 3.27 F&F 7 4.186M 1.334M 3.14 Jurassic World 4.148M 0.903M 4.59 Mockingjay 2 4.07M 1.143M 3.56 Inside Out 3.505M 0.642M 5.46 Er ist wieder da 2.485M 0.36M 6.9 Average Multiplier is (and just for the top 3) 2018: 5.31 (6.33 - two incredibly leggy movies in the top 3) 2017: 4.84 (4.22) 2016: 5.63 (4.64) 2015: 4.65 (4.04) The obvious outliner here is F&f8 with the only multiplier below a 3x and that despite movies opening on Thursday, so they have a four day OW. While in the US&Can (6,4,7,4) so 21 movies missed the 3x that are 52.5% compared ot just 2.5%. 2018 and 2016 are the only years (since at least 1975) without a 4m adm movie, though RO missed by just 5k. Also really interesting is, that 2016 had 5 movies between 3.84 and 4M. And this shows how crazy 2015 was - Mockingjay (#8) would rank #1, #3, #1 - and 2015 had an absolut giant TFA, three big giants #2-4 and four big movies and then just one between 3 and 4 and then the next below 2.5M.
  13. Taruseth


    They really look kinda similar even the colouring.
  14. I wouldn't say he is really popular, but he also isn't unpopular, more like an actor you might have heart of but that is it. Also the low gross I guess is because quite some have watched one of his movies on TV, but most wouldn't pay money to see him in cinema.
  15. Taruseth


    That's getting the norm, with Japan often being the market where it opens later. Almost all movies open in a majority of the markets at roughly the same time, most of the time around 95% of markets open on back to back weekends, with CM, IW (opening in all but 1 or 2 markets) Animation is where release dates are still spread out a lot. For example, the June Pixar release gets released during June to End of September, with the last market being Germany (though I actually think that this year they pulled TS4 closer together)

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