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Taruseth

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  1. So tomorrow the shows for the first week for Aladdin and John Wick will be up, that means you get a preview update tonight, I am just posting the whole thing. What I am getting from this: Aladdin performs really bad, John Wick does good. Godzilla does weirdly got at my local cinema. Rocketman most likely won't get close to BR. Dark Phoenix will crash epically. And they start presales 5 weeks ahead, that's so early. And selling for the shows of the first week starts the monday before, so basically three days before OD.
  2. Comedies tend to do somewhat good here and Endgame opened 60% above IW on the 4-day, the full OWend was double the IW ones and it almost opened on the 5-day with what Avengers made in total, so I guess legs always were meant to be somewhat bad. But to be honest, legs are rather underwhelming, it constantly drops 50%, that is meeh, it's definitely not bad but it should have had at least one better drop, like TLJ which opened rather similar (if using Endgames 4-day), that movie increased from 2nd to 3rd weekend (partly due to christmas being on the second, but none the less even the 2nd weekend drop wasn't much worse than Endgames with 55.6%. And Germany already loved Fifty Shades so... I guess it should be expected that After does well here too.
  3. The main problem is that people tend to use the word locked or comparable words way too often. People said that about basically everything. My main problem with your point is that you are dealing in absolutes. Is it likely that a movie grosses more than 2.8b in the next few years, no, it's not, you are right about that (Avatar 2 might have a small shot, though that needs a lot for that to happen and I am not saying that means it suddenly will be above $4b). And if you want to go by the declining adm numbers: In Germany adm. have been in constant decline since the 50s, because in the late 50s estimates are that up to 800m tickets were sold in one single year (1956 and 1957 are supposed to both be above that number) and then the small screen came and suddenly just ten years later 1968 and 1969 it dropped to just 180m and that trend continued until the years around 1990 were just around 100m adm. sold. That increased up to 180m in 2001 and fell to just 105m last year again. If we go by that cinemas have been dead for about 40 to 50 years or one could say on life support if you look at that decline from 1957 to 1967 than around 1977 cinema should have been dead. What I want to say is that not all hope is lost for cinemas, but they need to do more if they want to be able to bring more than just a few people to watch a movie. I am not ignoring you. When Jurassic Park opened it broke records in a lot of countries and then came Titanic and smashed records basically everywhere (I think it grossed like $70m in Brazil in 1997 which didn't happen again until, I think, Endgame) and doubled the previous highest grossing movies, so despite something appearing like the ceiling it doesn't have to be the ceiling. A movie that is able to catch as much interest around the world as Titanic did could push past it, though and that is where you are right as focus shifts from Europe and the US onto the whole world what type of movie people want diversifies too. What I pointed out is a theoretical amount of money a movie could gross, I don't think that will happen, but it's possible. Is it a reasonable ceiling? No, it's not. Is it reasonable to set the ceiling at 2.8b while everything points towards movies being able to gross a lot more? As more and more movies go above the $1b barrier or even reach $1.5b and $2b. And who says, when Chinese movies become better, that it needs to be a Hollywood film to break that barrier. China is a gigantic market - 1.37b people - if the big films are able to increase there, maybe one day a movie can do $1.5b in China alone and be written in a way that people in the rest of Asia and Latin America and Europe enjoy it too, America probably will just remake it, which is what limits its worldwide potential the most. Also, India has a lot of potential, I know that it's dominated by local movies too, but if the economy grows and the box office does with it movies could gross a lot there too. And Africa right now is probably as valuable to most movies as is the Netherlands or Belgium (probably less for a lot of movies). That is a gigantic untapped potential and if the industry grows as it does in China then, despite a big local share, Hollywood movies could increase a lot. Still not saying that grows potential is infinite but there certainly is some potential.
  4. Isn't that what the movie is titled? The Rise of Skywalker? Yeah, true was released way to late to be truly part of initial run.
  5. No, it isn't, but neither is Your name, most movies don't gross over $75m in Japan. And Disney and Pixar tend to do good in Japan (though nothing like Frozen) that's the point with Japan normal movies don't gross much more than in Germany for example and then suddenly one movie explodes and gross three or four times as much or even more.
  6. As you take Japan as an example: Last year the most successful movie was a Hollywood movie (Bohemian Rhapsody ($116+m), as, by the way, were 4-6 and 8-10, so out of the Top 10 only 2, 3 and 7 were local movies. 2017 1 (B&tB $111m), 2 5-7 and 9 and 10 were Hollywood movies, only 3, 4 and 8 were local movies. 2016 3-5, 7-9 were Hollywood movies, this year 1, 2, 6 and 10 were Japan movies, though with Your Name as the top movie this year money wise was dominated by local movies as it grossed 235m (which even for local movies rarely happens). 2015 Hollywood movies placed 1 (TFA $98m) -3, 6, 7 and 10 and local movies being 4, 5 and 9 and an India movie placing 8th. 2014 Hollywood movies only had 1, 3 and 4 place and all other movies were locals, but this year Frozen grossed $249m (which due to ER differences in $ is the highest grossing movie ever in Japan). Before that the years actually all tend to be a lot more local heavy with 2, 4 being the only two Hollywood films in the Top 10 in 2013, just 6, 8 and 9 in 2012 being Hollywood movies. In 2011 it was 1-3 and 5 (with the top two Harry Potter and Pirates being above $100m). In 2010 1, 2, 6, 7 were Hollywood (with the first three above $100m). Though since 2015 Hollywood has a higher share than local movies, I'd say they care about both, though in general local movies are making up a greater share below the top 10. What do we learn from that, it's not that Japan doesn't care about Hollywood movies, it's just they care more about the animated movies, musicals and Fantasy. But you are right about the point that it get's harder to make movies that please every market when more and more markets matter money wise. A theoretical record breaker movie would gross like in excess off 4.5b if it grossed more than the previous record holder in every market, because: Dom: $940m (+$3m) China: $870m (+$5m) India: $340m (+$0-30m) Japan: $250m (+$1m) France: $200m (+$6m) UK: $180m (+$0m) Germany: $170m (+$8m) would be $2950m together so just 7 markets and already higher than any other film, problem: Which is where you are right highest grossing movies are really different: Dom: TFA China: WW2 (local movies) India: Dangal (local movie) Japan: Frozen 2 France: Ch'tis (local movie) UK: TFA Germany: Avatar
  7. I just realised that the only other film that was able to rise from a 1B WW gross was TDKR and that was with TDK and the really, really late push above 1B that barely still could be counted as part of it's initial run... (Question is will Frozen 2 or RTOS be able to do it)
  8. Yeah, because Suicide Squad versus freaking Batman v Superman... I doubt many outside of comic book fans even knew what the Suicide Squad was before the movie, I think everyone has heard of Batman and Superman. And the difference between Suicide Squad and BvS was mainly China (not totally, but mainly) And Engame isn't a disappointment, I thought like 700 and 2.1b (so slightly above IW, probably a little low on OS, but well) would be good (realistically until the presales went absolutely bonkers I expected more like a result with Dom weaker than Avengers and stronger OS performance, considering that AoU dropped as did JW2, TLJ and some others). True, people thought TFA wouldn't be #1 dom and WW (thought to be fair back then it was reasonable to expect that). Yeah, people, I think, after that OW have looked a little too often at TFA, but those first 17 day of TFAs were just bonkers and they actually in total still are slightly higher($18.46m) than Endgames first 17 days. To be fair wouldn't every gross for TROS around or below RO basically be seen as a failure? Thought it overall would still be good, just compared to TFA and TLJ (and RO) really bad. This is so true, I watched it on 30th April (so the 7th day it was in release) in Germany and I was really, really late. For SW, for example, it's totally different, people watch that spread out over the first four weeks or so, because, in the end, they want to see it, but they don't feel the need to see it on OWend and quite some wait till the new year, when everyone starts to work because cinemas aren't as full then.
  9. Yeah, Japan, Germany and France... and small countries like Sweden and the Netherlands. But apart from those it never really was.
  10. 🤣 WW... Order will probably be A4 IX TLK Frozen 2 Far From Home (not Disney, but Marvel, so basically Disney, lol) CM TS4 And then no idea...
  11. -51.8% for Endgame after dropping 48% from 1st to 2nd Weekend. Mmmhh, kinda hoped for a little better dropped, I think 5m is probably where it's heading, it won't get further.
  12. They get way more from Domestic because even everything that follows is way better for domestic compared to Worldwide, though as they will be somewhat close Domestic, Disney definitely will be happy about the big difference OS. China is basically cinema and that's all, domestic with home video and all that Disney can basically double what they earned. But in the end, as long as both make a lot of money for Disney Disney will be happy.
  13. Final one for DP: Saturday 11th May 2019 23:59 Sunday: OV 3D 20:15: 30 / 166 3D 17:00: 37 / 425 3D 20:30: 23 / 296 2D 11:20: 37 / 425 2D 14:20: 99 / 425 Total: 226 / 1737 -> 13% (+108) And Presales for Sunday are 0.87 times of those for Saturday (an increase from 0.78 times at what it was 24h ago). So based on the Thursday number (40k): 40k 100k 180k 155k For a 475k Weekend (don’t know yet how presales multi is over here, so it might be a bit screwed). Presales for Monday: 10 (don’t worry, they are always, always awful, presalemulti for OWend is always awful, and gets a lot better starting with Monday (unless it’s a holiday). Otherwise, it would be a 91.5% drop.
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