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Taruseth

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About Taruseth

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  1. Unless TLK kills it I would say definitely, the much more interesting questions now are 360m and 4x (366m) with the later most likely being a step to far and it will end probably with a multi like WW (3.996x or so) actually right now I say it barely gets to 360m (like 360.05m)
  2. Pretty much that, Ice Age was hugely popular here too (so that had a really famous comedian as the dubber for Sid which probably helped a bit). The most successful this decade are: Minions 6.95m Ice age 4: 6.70m Frozen: 4.77m Despicable Me 3: 4.65m Madagascar 3: 3.97m Rapunzel: 3.94m Finding Dory: 3.92m Pets: 3.85m Zootopia: 3.85m Despicable Me 2: 3.67m Inside Out: 3.5m Puss in Boots: 3.2m Of those basically Frozen, Finding Dory, Zootopia and Inside Out aren't in that style (4 out of 12). Maybe Frozen 2 will be able to get above 3m too, to be honest it should, kinda hoping for a increase over the first and a total above 5m (and maybe above Endgame, I think Germany is one of the few markets where it has a small chance at doing that). Also I don't know if there are any polls about who watches a movie in Germany, but from what I felt Illumination movies are stronger during the day and have pretty weak evening shows. While Zootopia and Inside Out had pretty strong evening showings (like the 9pm showings were rather strong). Just feels like those Pixar and WDAS are also watched by people that aren't parents or kids, but kids on the other hand tend to watch all Ilumination and not necessarily the others. That's of course just what I see, which probably means nothing.
  3. Honestly: No idea, in Germany it on top just like Endgame has a 5-day OWend and not a normal 4-day OWend and I didn't count yesterday evening but just gave it a quick look and that didn't look promising. Will probably only count tomorrow evening and then compare the 4-day Wend with the other 4-days (fully ignoring Wednesday) to get an idea for it's OWend. It obviously still could open big and be walk up heavy and that is just Germany which doesn't always indicate how a movie performs and on top of that is Germany a declining market and kinda hates those live action movies (they make more in Italy and Spain, two smaller markets). And that Wednesday seriously fucks up the comp and the fact that after 2 really cold weeks the weather will be nice again, starting on Wednesday (Opening Day) will probably hurt quite a bit too. Could still go for the 40% Dom split, Germany doesn't say much about the rest of the markets. In other words, I don't know.
  4. True, Germany loves Minions and Pets in animation. Pets 2 will most likely end above Incredibles 2. Though at least the most successful animations are TJB, TLK and Finding Nemo or so...
  5. Isn't that overall kinda good like it's above every other movie (I know that Eg and IW had totally different pattern) Also you are here debating if it will end as the 5th biggest OWend (behind Endgame, IW, TFA and TLJ) or the 10th biggest (180m between Civil War and I2) which even adjusted for Inflations would be 6th to 16th. While in Germany I have doubt it will get into the top 100 for OWends (need 965k adms. for that or the top 50 in € would need €10m)
  6. It's making a killing in Germany: Wend: 198k (€1676k ≈ $1885k) / with Previews (on Sunday before): 241k (€2009 ≈ $2260k) 2nd Wend: 318k (€2611k ≈ $2940k) 3rd Wend: 355k (€2900k ≈ $3275k) so 79.3% above OWend, but to be fair OWend were like 35+ °C everywhere and than no one goes to the cinema and this Wend was like 15-20 °C and rainy so cinema is where the people will go and Aladdin increase from it's 6th to it's 8th Wend by 70% too, (so it's 8th Wend is about 70% below OWend) Also Pets 3rd Wend in adm is above Spider-Mans 2nd Wend but in €/$ Spidey is first. Cume: 1170k (€9650 ≈ $10850k) Wend is basically the same as Pets after starting like 70% below that and Pets added 1625k after such a Wend. Total (Range): 2250k-2750k (€18250k-€22275k ≈ $20500k-$25000k) for a Multi of 11.36x-13.89x (10.89x-13.29x) Which would be a drop of 41.5%-28.5% (41.5%-28.5%, ER are quite similar) Next Wend should be way hotter again (25-30 °C) so I expect Pets to drop to something like 200-250k which would still be above OWend.
  7. JW is totally different movie, before that opening everything pointed towards a 110m or so up to maybe 140m and that it (barely) broke the OWend record with 208m so I wouldn't use that as comp. Maybe I am fully wrong and it will do something crazy like a 11-12 IM but this appears more like a standard blockbuster (Superhero/SW with good IM) than an family/animation movie and TS4 came in barely above a 10 with a 10.076x
  8. B&tB Previews: 16.3m, OWend: 174.751M -> IM = 174.751/16.3 = 10.72 (as I wrote) in March where previews overall tend to be a bit weaker as their aren't summer holidays and TLK is kinda treated like the live action blockbuster, two things that point towards a worse IM. Which is why expecting something between 8 and 10 is reasonable, so I hope it will end up above a 10x but doubt that.
  9. No, because this isn't your normal family movie but a big blockbuster so IM won't be anything Aladdin like (12x on a normal Wend with M-Day it was a 13x) but rather something closer to other blockbuster and its opening in summer so its IM most likely will be worse than B&tB (10.72x).
  10. 1. The multi didn't decrease that much, most movies weren't exceptionally leggy back then either, Avatar just simply was an insane leg monster, because there wasn't any rush to see it and it introduced 3d to a lot of people. 2. True point, but even TFA that had most countries but China (which did less than 1 tenth of WW opening) on the same Wend and still managed something like a 3.8 or so overall. 3. Without that the opening might have been 85-90m but not 150m or so and even that would still be impressive legs considering the initial run ended at 750m 4. That's true big rush to see it OWend. 5. Yeah but even sequels can be kinda leggy. 6. This X-Mas is excuse is kinda stupid considering before TFA everyone was saying that they loose so much by opening in December and the OWend will be small and legs won't be able to solve it considering it is a SW movie, yet it broke the OWend record by 40m and than had a 3.78 (better than all but two multis for movies opening above 100m and the other two movies were Shrek 2 (108m 4.08x and Wonder Woman 103.25m 4x and that was in the future back then, the next movie below 100m with a better multi will probably be Aladdin, lol). 7. That's definitely true 8. Easter was the Wend before so some countries had Easter Holiday, far more important was 1st May on it's first Wednesday after OWend. 9. True other really long movies would be the likes of Titanic, Return of the King and Gone with the wind. 10. Yep Who boycotts Disney? I knew that CinemaxX sometimes has problems with them beforehand but for Endgame the resales just started a little late and the local one seems to always kick out movies earlier than the Cinestar, like the Cinemaxx shows 10 movies, the Cinestar 20... And then the problem would have been the same for TLJ and TFA which opened slightly below and way above Endgame.
  11. What the bloody fuck is wrong with Pets 2, like seriously! With that 3rd Wend I think it has a chance at 2.5m. That Aladdin hold is pretty nice too considering it's 8th Wend is a 70.7% drop compared to OWend, most movies are more around a 90+% drop around their 8th Wend. Also final total for Aladdin with that Wend 1740k, so maybe it actually still has a small chance at 2m..
  12. This is the international forum and TFA opened 40m above JW and Avengers and still had far better legs (yeah December and all that but that is somewhat countered by the 40m higher OWend) so this isn't a fully set rule. Also this is the international thread and Endgame's leg were pretty bad in Germany for example, had a 5-day OWend (normal would be 4-day so no previews or OD rush as part of OWend) yet it still barely got a 3x in admissions and is a little below that in €/$. Also BP legs are pretty great compared to other movies that opened that high (apart from the likes of I2 and TFA).
  13. Higher than Endgame would be quite something... Also will see a 5k count some time, considering from 2010 to 2017 the highest opening was Eclipse with 4468 and then Despicable Me 3 opened in 4529 and this year Endgame pushed that count to 4662 theatres. Before Eclipse it was Iron Man 2 with 4380 in the same year (2010)
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