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About Taruseth

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  1. TLK really is a lot bigger than the others. Also really interesting is large gap between TLK and B&TB/AIW and then the next one to Aladdin/Jungle Book. Thinking TLK should end up 2M above B&tB, while I had definitely hoped for that earlier in the year I wasn't certain that it would happen. I won't post for the rest of September, sorry, so no new updates on anything.
  2. It 2 OD 94816 admissions (at least I understand that cine-directors.net website like that)
  3. B&tB (total) vs TLK (total) (vs prediction) 1st Wend: 864k (864k) vs 922k (1131k) -> +58k (+267k) 1st Wdays: 227k (1091k) vs 354k (1485k) -> +127k (+394k) 2nd Wend: 503k (1594k) vs 631k (2116k) -> +128k (+522k) 2nd Wdays: 141k (1735k) vs 418k (2516k) -> +277k (+781k) 3rd Wend: 309k (2044k) vs 565k (3098k) -> +256k (+1054k) 3rd Wdays: 112k (2156k) vs 346k (3445k) -> +234k (+1289k) 4th Wend: 216k (2372k) vs 406k (3851k) -> +190k (+1479k) 4th Wdays: 159k (2531k) vs 222k (4073k) -> +63k (+1542k) 5th Wend: 216k (2747k) vs 332k (4405k) -> +116k (+1685k) 5th Wdays: 160k (2907k) vs 125k (4529k) -> -35k (+1622k) 6th Wend: 153k (3060k) vs 130k (4659k) -> -23k (+1599k) 6th Wdays: 29k (3089k) vs 52k (4711k) -> +23k (+1622k) (+2 (+2k)) 7th Wend: 72k (3161k) vs 120k (4832k) -> +48k (+1671k) (-6k (-3k)) rounding error 7th Wdays: 42k (3203k) vs 47k (4879k) -> +5k (+1676k) (-3k (-6k)) 8th Wend: 47k (3250k) vs 151k (5030k) -> +104k (+1780k) (+51k (+45k) 8th Wdays: 14k (3264k) vs 30k (5060k) -> +16k (+1796k) 9th Wend: 32k (3296k) vs 100k (5160k) -> +68k (+1864k)* (#1 for this Year & best 9th weekend this year) 9th Wdays: 8k (3304k) vs 20k (5180k) -> +10k (+1876k) 10th Wend: 20k (3324k) vs 60k (5240k) -> +40k (+1916k) (best 10th weekend this year) 10th Wdays: 5k (3329k) vs 10k (5250k) -> +5k (+1921k) B&tB added 101k after that. TLK should add more than that, might add around 150k for 5.4M total. The rest of this run is probably a bit too pessimistic. * could be harsher as weather looks to get better again.
  4. Weekend estimates (Monday morning): It 2: 585k + 40k Hollywood: 155k (-0.4%) (1380k total) TLK: 150k (+24.8%) (5030k) (5M on Sunday, 4 days faster than Endgame) TS4: 105k (+31.7%) (635k total, first time since OWend above 100k) Good Boys: 100k (+8.1%) (370k total, highest weekend yet) Angel Has Fallen: 80k (-7.6%) (195k total) Leber: 67.5k (+37.9%) (1090k total) Playmobil: 65k (+51.2% / +18.5%) (135k total) H&S: 57.5k (-11.8%) (1590k total) Pets 2: 45k (+68.1%) (2365k total) Mein Lotta-Leben: 42.5k (+56.5% / +33.7%) (85k total) Comp to last weekend +89%, to same weekend last year +86% Maybe I am wrong but the weather this year seriously does things to the legs. TLK and Pets 2 both have incredible legs. Even TS4's legs after an awful 2nd weekend drop are turning out alright and now I am thinking it could get close to 1M admissions. TLK easily has the best 8th weekend this year, previous best was Aladdin with 86.9k and will also have highest eight week, previously Aladdin too with 120.8k. Should also get best 9th weekend (Green Book 38.3k) and best 10th weekend (Pets 2 26.8k) and best eight week (Green Book 56k) and best 10th week (Aladdin 42k). Looks like the 8th weekend is the best since February 2015 when Honig im Kopf (started Christmas 2014) had 277k on that weekend.* Good Boys should get to 600k at least. Angel Has fallen is already past Olympus Has Fallen (144.6k) and in the end will get close to London Has Fallen (393k). Pets 2 looks like it might still get to 2.5M. * Best 8th weekends this decade (+/0/X) how many more consecutive weekends above 100k, x means a previous weekend was below 100k: Intouchables: 471k (+7) Fack Ju Göhte!: 344k (+5) Honig im Kopf: 277k (+3) Monsieur Claude: 178k (+3) TLK: 150k (0/+1?) Ice Age 4: 138k (+1) Skyfall: 132k (+1) Pets: 131k (X) Harry Potter 7: 120k (0) Zoomania: 120k (0) Fack Ju Göte 2: 120k (0) Fantastic Beasts 2: 117k (0) Spectre: 114k (+1) Rapunzel: 112k (+1) Minions: 110k (0) Frozen: 107k (0) La La Land: 104k (X) TFA: 91k Most consecutive weekends above 100k this decade: Intouchables: 15 Fack Ju Göhte!: 13 Honig im Kopf: 11 Monsieur Claude: 11 Ice Age 4: 9 Skyfall: 9 Spectre: 9 Rapunzel: 9 TLK: 8/9 Harry Potter 7: 8 Zoomania: 8 Fack Ju Göhte 2: 8 Fantastic Beasts 2: 8 Minions: 8 Frozen: 8
  5. You certain? Only know how it's in Germany, but horror movies tend to get a 11pm showing* and even the short ones would end around 1 am that way (commercials etc.)... And here cinemas never do any showings between midnight and 10 am, not even for TFA (apart from midnight previews obviously, but these year only Endgame and TLK as far as I remember got them and tLK only got really limited one in like 100 theatres or so, CM probably got some too). * after 2nd weekend or so that is the only showing, kids movies get a 11am one and Live Action, Superhero etc. hang onto screens a lot longer, like TLK still gets 4-5 showing a day in the top theatres (OWend was 12-20 showings in these), obviously in small halls (100-250 seats and not the big ones 400-700 seats).
  6. New trend, insidekino ( It down 40k!!!, Good boys down 5k, TS4 down 15k): It 2: 600k (560k + 40k Previews)* TLK: 150k (+25%)** Hollywood: 150k (-3.8%) Good Boys: 90k (-2.7%) TS4: 80k (+0.3%) Angel has Fallen: 70k (-19.1%) Leber: 47.5k (-2.9%) Playmobil: 47.5k (+10.5% / -13.3%) H&S: 47.5k (-27.1%) Lotta-Leben: 32.5k (+19.7% / +2.2%) Pets 2: 30k (+12.1%) Top 10: 1315k (Pets is #11) * This opening would put 2M total in danger, (It multi was 3.4) and 2.5+M is pretty much impossible. 560k*3.3 = 1848k 560k*3.4 = 1904k 560k*3.5 = 1960k ** I am honestly hoping for TLK to not drop next weekend because 6M (I know that won't happen) but on the other hand after opening I thought 3.5M or whatever (need to look back) in the leg overview I don't even think I put the possibility of having more than 4.5M total and now it looks like it might do a million more than that. Don't know if I am wrong but it feels like it has the same problem here as it does in the US, the late night showing 10pm and later are in comparison rather weak. Like one would expect them to be the strongest but the strongest are the 8pm showings like it is for every movie outside of kids movies (TLK, Hollywood and H&S for example were all strongest during the evening). EDIT 2: It, H&S, TS4 etc really make Endgame's and TLK's increase in opening weekend, total (and for TLK legs) to the previous highest movie (IW & B&tB) even more impressive.
  7. We live in the age where TLJ opening too 220M and finishing with 620M was a flop. TLK only doing 191M and 535M basically was meh too (OS saved this). Ultron was considered a disappointment by some. Endgame taking longer and help to overtake Avatar was considered meh by some. And all but Endgame were explained but the previous movie... and that would work for It too. 90M would be a harsher drop than either TLJ or Ultron.
  8. I mean the previews and I still think TLK partly would be a good comp as kids vs out of summer should cancel each other out and not as front loaded should cancel out Wednesday start. In the end it most likely won't do the same from the presales on as TLK in the end is a little more walk up friendly. IM for It was 7.15x, thinking It should get somewhat close but stay below as it's Wednesday (only previews for It 2) was weaker so took of less pressure on OD. Furthermore its a Sequel -> frontloaded. So 650k (between Hollywood comp and TLK comp). It had amazing legs (4-day multi should end up close to a 6x)
  9. Thursday estimates insidekino: IT 2: 600k +40k Previews (a lot weaker than I initially expected, I ignored that they started at 22:30) Hollywood: 150k (-3.8%) TLK: 150k (+25%)* Good Boys: 95k (+2.2%) TS4: 95k (+18.75%) Good Boys three weekends: 94.8k, 92.5k and now 95k, that are LEGS! After an awful 2nd weekend drop (221k, 87.6k, 79.75k and now 95k) now three weekends with basically no drop. TLK down about 55% from the 5th weekend (first 5 weekends had low drops and then a harsh 6th weekend, and now like the other two 3 weekends with good holds 129.9k, 120.1k and now 150k) *Total of around 5030k after the weekend, reached the 5M mark 3 or 4 days faster than Endgame after taking 9 days longer for the 3M mark. After this weekend TLK should end with a nice but not extraordinary late run but even just adding this weekend 2.5 times (average legs) would mean 375k more so 5.4M. If it holds on nicely to theaters, theaters should drop everything else before it but It 2 (as TLK holds on nicely), it could very well hold on better (~5.6M). Beating Endgame in $ is almost impossible though (would probably need 6M adm, so 1M more after a 150k weekend).
  10. Thursday actuals: It 2: 100k (€980k ≈ $ 1080k) Hollywood: 25k (€240k ≈ $265k) TLK: 17k (€145k ≈ $160k) Good Boys: 11.6k (€90k ≈ $99k) Angel Has Fallen: 11k (€95k ≈ $105k)
  11. Here it is: IT 2: Total: (T-0): Previews: XX + 235 + 294 = 529 Th: XX + 281 + 458 = 739 Fri: XX + 222 + 364 = 586 Sat: XX + 160 + 241 = 401 Sun: XX + 45 + 103 = 148 TFSS: XX + 714 + 1166 = 1880 / 25132 -> 7.48% PTFSS: XX + 949 + 1460 = 2409 / 27732 -> 8.69% Adjusted adm. (without CS Bremen) only TFSS: Wend (wo Previews): Aladdin: 339 => 1600k John Wick 3: 522 => 1027k Godzilla: 184 => 1435k Rocketman: 128 => 1747k Dark Phoenix: 236 => 988k MIBI: 162 => 1308k Five Feet Apart: 59 => 3367k Spider-Man FFH: 1672 => 488k TLK: 2142 => 809k H&S: 625 => 1479k Hollywood: 1585 => 521k TS4: 280 => 1600k I think TLK might be a good comp which would mean an opening around 800k (different effects for movies canceling each other out LA vs Sequel, Kids vs Horror etc.). And probably around 60-80k in Previews. Slightly worrisome is the Hollywood comp as a 521k starts isn't that high und both should have some built in fan base and both are evening heavy movies. And TLK has the second highest number of screens, often in the smaller rooms but I think it should hold at least flat to last weekend and with that stay at #2. I have no idea how well gut gegen Nordwind will start but I think TLK has a shot at staying #2 next weekend, for 4 weekends at #1 and then 5 weekends at #2.
  12. Cinestar Bremen will stay closed for now because of the fire (they show available showings but they all are blocked). Will try to none the less do a quick count through the other tow and then will adjust the comps. It gets 7 German and 4 english showings at the metropolis Frankfurt tomorrow and 4 previews tonight. At the CinemaxX Bremen 2 preview showings and 6 German and 1 (2 on Saturday and Sunday) english showings.
  13. It 2, might try a count tonight but might need to adjust all comps for that if the Cinestar Bremen doesn't have a full schedule because of the fire. Don't know how that will screw everything. Theoretically TLK (considering the hot Saturday and the rather hot Sunday in eastern and southern Germany) should hold with a hold similar to this weekend (-> Total after the weekend 4.98-5M) and the same should go for TS4, so maybe that movie actually will end with okay legs. Leberkäs is above 1M adm.
  14. Love the detailed write up and I tend to be optimistic on movies grosses and am in the TROS above 700M club so I am going to say in. Mainly because I expect the top 3 to be really strong and hope for a good base. I am going to go all crazy and go in for the Bonus club too, even though this is really hard and for that TROS probably needs to open close to or above TLJ and have really nice weekdays and a comparable low weekend drop so will need to be received really well. Also I think Frozen 2 could go both ways but right now I want to stay optimistic and say this will open really good and will have a really nice December.
  15. TFA -- 952M ( - 179.5M / UK) FF7 -- 733 ( - 390M / China) FF8 -- 617M ( - 393M /China) TFA also had China and Germany above 100M and Japan just 2M below that. %-Share of biggest market (only looking at OS-Gross: Avatar: 10.00% TLK: 11.53% (final probably 10.8-11.00%) Titanic: 13.15% TFA: 15.86% Jurassic World: 22.37% Infinity War: 27.46% Endgame: 32.46% FF7: 33.53% FF8: 38.9% Based on this TFA would actually be spread out evenly but we obviously all know that wasn't the case it was really Europe heavy (if I remember correctly higher local gross than anything but Avatar and Titanic)
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