Perfundle

Probably because this movie was conceived and started filming before COVID, and interest in movies with darker themes crashed with the pandemic. In any case, its original release schedule of December 25, 2020 (limited) and January 8, 2021 (wide) says that it was gunning for awards, and any money it made was a bonus. Perhaps its less than stellar reviews made the studio think that it now has no chance of either.

I don't think it's fair to compare an origin story with a soft sequel. A better comparison would be the Deadpool 2 trailer. The first few lines of that are: "Start the fucking car!" "Whoo, I shit my pants." "Actually that might have been me." In many ways, Deadpool 2 and The Suicide Squad are quite similar. Both have a misleading trailer which the cold open completely upends (killing off Vanessa and killing off team A). Both put together a team that is immediately nearly wiped out. Both have unclear antagonists, unlike most superhero movies. Both have a character being graphically ripped in half. Of course, Deadpool was well-received and Suicide Squad was not, and so it could be that no marketing could have salvaged The Suicide Squad. And speaking of the first movie, the Bohemian Rhapsody trailer for Suicide Squad had no emotional hook either, and also made the whole thing seem exclusively like an action movie, and it didn't put off audiences from seeing it.

And in general, improving a movie's CGI has got to be one of the least effective uses of money for a studio. The vast majority of the audience isn't going to notice/care, and even for critics who do it's typically quite low in terms of importance. Scenes with bad CGI tend to have other, more pressing issues wrong with them, such as lack of stakes, unclear action or narrative choppiness that critics care more about, and won't be fixed simply by improving the CGI quality.

$5-7 million was my range (the only part of my Deadline parody in the DP thread that wasn't a joke), so looks like we're all in agreement with an average of $6 million. I based mine on Shazam's, which is still my best comparison, and that did $5.9 million. Ooh, that's probably it. Of the 32 showings in my theaters, only two of them are IMAX right now.

Since Detective Pikachu is winding down, I thought I'd look at John Wick 3 as well. 30 days too late, sure, but it's the final week that's most important. I don't know why it has so few showings though, considering it's at higher capacity than Detective Pikachu at T-8 days. Detective Pikachu San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 1 day to opening night Sellouts Showings Seats sold Seats Left Total Seats Percent Sold TOTALS 0 83 4989 8839 13828 36.08% 2 showings added 396 seats added 867 seats sold Date 4/10 4/11 4/12 4/13 Tickets Sold 534 198 110 58 Date 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/20 Tickets Sold 28 45 59 63 36 33 28 Date 4/21 4/22 4/23 4/24 4/25 4/26 4/27 Tickets Sold 35 72 57 44 92 64 79 Date 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1 5/2 5/3 5/4 Tickets Sold 91 126 85 139 255 232 241 Date 5/5 5/6 5/7 5/8 Tickets Sold 248 472 598 867 Aladdin San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 15 days to opening night Sellouts Showings Seats sold Seats Left Total Seats Percent Sold TOTALS 0 62 1636 11360 12996 12.59% 85 seats sold Date 4/30 4/31 5/1 5/2 5/3 5/4 Tickets Sold 677 208 149 131 87 56 Date 5/5 5/6 5/7 5/8 Tickets Sold 65 107 71 85 1.17x Detective Pikachu at T-15 days of presales [Detective Pikachu has 29 days of presales compared to Aladdin's 24] John Wick 3 San Gabriel Valley (8 theaters), 8 days to opening night Sellouts Showings Seats sold Seats Left Total Seats Percent Sold TOTALS 0 32 1608 4995 6603 24.35% Date 5/5 5/6 5/7 5/8 Tickets Sold 1608 (up to here)

Looking at all those 0's, how many of those 4 actually sold out showings on opening night? Right now none of my showings are coming close to doing that, with the two closest at 82%. And on that subject, how do you count seats on Thursday? Do you check the seats right before the first showing?

Well this one's completely out of whack. How in the world did Ant Man 2 drop on Tuesday?

Detective Pikachu San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 2 days to opening night Sellouts Showings Seats sold Seats Left Total Seats Percent Sold TOTALS 0 81 4122 9310 13432 30.69% 3 showings added 413 seats added 598 seats sold Date 4/10 4/11 4/12 4/13 Tickets Sold 534 198 110 58 Date 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/20 Tickets Sold 28 45 59 63 36 33 28 Date 4/21 4/22 4/23 4/24 4/25 4/26 4/27 Tickets Sold 35 72 57 44 92 64 79 Date 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1 5/2 5/3 5/4 Tickets Sold 91 126 85 139 255 232 241 Date 5/5 5/6 5/7 Tickets Sold 248 472 598 Aladdin San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 9th day of presales, 16 days to opening night Sellouts Showings Seats sold Seats Left Total Seats Percent Sold TOTALS 0 62 1551 11445 12996 11.93% 71 seats sold Date 4/30 4/31 5/1 5/2 5/3 5/4 Tickets Sold 677 208 149 131 87 56 Date 5/5 5/6 5/7 Tickets Sold 65 107 71 1.14x Detective Pikachu at T-16 days of presales [Detective Pikachu has 29 days of presales compared to Aladdin's 24]

Does it? I'm looking through the archives, and Dumbo, The Grinch and Hotel Transylvania all had similar or lower percentage increases, and they certainly weren't near capacity or frontloaded. I think there's simply a lot of variability.

Sure, the revenue would be higher, but $150 million in 2005 isn't the same as $150 million in 2019 either. I meant 400 with China in 2005 if China was as big as it was now. But yeah, the WOM and home video sales are certainly key factors that I didn't know about.

Is Batman Begins a good comparison? It had the same budget, and $374 million without China is probably equivalent to $400 million with China.

Geez that took a while to count, but I'm certainly not complaining. Also, several people have expressed concern about low presales for Aladdin at their theaters, but I'm certainly not seeing that at mine; it's been pretty healthy the last couple of days. Detective Pikachu San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 3 days to opening night Sellouts Showings Seats sold Seats Left Total Seats Percent Sold TOTALS 0 78 3524 9495 13019 27.07% 13 showings added 2158 seats added 472 seats sold Date 4/10 4/11 4/12 4/13 Tickets Sold 534 198 110 58 Date 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/20 Tickets Sold 28 45 59 63 36 33 28 Date 4/21 4/22 4/23 4/24 4/25 4/26 4/27 Tickets Sold 35 72 57 44 92 64 79 Date 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1 5/2 5/3 5/4 Tickets Sold 91 126 85 139 255 232 241 Date 5/5 5/6 Tickets Sold 248 472 Aladdin San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 8th day of presales, 17 days to opening night Sellouts Showings Seats sold Seats Left Total Seats Percent Sold TOTALS 0 62 1480 11516 12996 11.39% 107 seats sold Date 4/30 4/31 5/1 5/2 5/3 5/4 Tickets Sold 677 208 149 131 87 56 Date 5/5 5/6 Tickets Sold 65 107 1.35x Detective Pikachu's first 8 days of presales [Detective Pikachu has 29 days of presales compared to Aladdin's 24] 1.14x Detective Pikachu at T-17 days of presales (cumulative total)

What are you talking about, this is what we're doing all day:

Why would a studio do this? Is it like a tit-for-tat thing, where they allow other movies to take their showings if they get to reciprocate in the future?

Yeah, here's the 12:10AM showing and 12:30AM showing. And based on how the ticket sales increased, that 12:10 showing consists of at least four separate groups.