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salvador-232

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Everything posted by salvador-232

  1. It has already been mentioned but Chile moved again to November 28th. The release date is awkward, for a number of reason (social situation remains explosive, the date is bad in general) but I suspect it has to do more with the movie chains than with Disney, they need to inject some life to the BO given than the last month must be a record low in decades.
  2. January 2nd Chile November 21th Colombia November 22th Ecuador November 21th Perú December 5th Uruguay (lol, wtf are they thinking) December 5th Paraguay (lmao) November 28th Bolivia November 29th Venezuela
  3. Moved to January 2nd. Well, if by that date the government has fallen then it has a chance to do well.
  4. There are even more problems for Frozen in Latin America . The crisis in Chile doesn't show any sign of abating and cinemas are running at like a quarter of capacity (they aren't even doing presales). On top of that, said crisis has pushed the ER to a 16 year record low. If Disney doesn't move it then I think is going to be basically DOA (Though there rumors that authorities are going to cancel the school year, so that would be helpful I guess...) In recent years Chile has usually been the third largest market in USD in LA unless Argentina goes crazy for a movie.
  5. After 13 days with almost all cinemas closed, the major chains have started to reopen theaters in less conflictive zones and with limited schedules (no night or even evening showings, etc.). A problem that the chains face is that the vast majority of theaters in Chile are placed in malls and thus are dependent on them to be able to reopen. The effect of the protest on the BO can be seen for example with "Abominable", (protest started on October 18th) Oct 10-13 - $208,136 -29.7% 74 +4 $2,812 $1,024,105 3 Oct 17-20 2 $55,134 -73.5% 71 -3 $776 $1,104,304 4 Oct 24-27 - $4,350 -92.1% 19 -52 $228 $1,109,558 5 The silver lining however is that 2019 was so far ahead of 2018 that it might still manage a (very small) increase in admissions, but that depends on how fast the reopening process goes. Before everything started yearly BO was on track to a 7-10% increase. Given the complex situation, many releases have moved: Most notably Terminator 6 (Nov 14th), Adam's Family (Nov 7th). Frozen II (Nov 21th) has not moved but everything remain uncertain.
  6. Ah, Rapa Nui should be fine, but if you pass by Santiago there's a very high chance you end up being an extra in a 5D Joker post credit scene, riots included.
  7. Moved to November 14th in Chile, if the country continues to exist until then 😅
  8. That's why Showman wasn't a thing outside the Anglo world and Japan
  9. Well, I haven't updated this on a while. At first it was because I was very busy, but now is because there's literally no Box Office in the country. Since October 18th Chile has been in the middle of massive protests and social unrest, the spark was a subway fare hike but the underlining problem is the economic system and sistematic inequality. Showings started being canceled on Friday 18th and by Saturday evening all Cinema chains had canceled all the functions in all the country and they haven't reopened so far. There's currently a State of Emergency and Curfrew (the first since Pinochet) in the capital Santiago and in cities of 13 regions. I was in Santiago when everything started and honestly the whole experience felt like being an extra in a post-credit scene of the Joker.
  10. South America OD: Argentina: 73.318 admissions (6,7% over Suicide Squad) Bolivia: 16.515 admissions (36% over Suicide Squad) Paraguay. 4.165 admissions (6,5% over Suicide Squad) Uruguay: 1.974 admissions (15,7% below Suicide Squad).
  11. Chile (usually good bellwether for the rest of SA): This reminds me of the hype for Suicide Squad
  12. Joker, 2 days before release, 17% of the market 62 showings for OD | 14.742 seats available | 3975 tickets sold 100,02% of Captain Marvel ($2,3m USD) and 106% of Spider-Man FFH ($1,7m USD). Joker faded a bit in the comps but there is a catch. Both CM and FFH had twice as many seats as Joker (over 29k seats and over one hundred showings). The fact that it still managed to remain ahead of them show a great strenght. It does, however, face worse ER (basically at record lows right now)
  13. Presales in Chile are reaaaally strong and Chile's PS are usually a good predictor for the rest of South America. (Plus, Brasil is more into Super Heros than Chile)
  14. Joker, 8 days before release, 17% of the market 62 showings for OD | 14.742 seats available | 1312 tickets sold Joker now is beating Captain Marvel by 20% at the same point of presales. I think this basically guarantees an opening above 1m USD and with this level of presales, 2m USD (equivalent to 168m OW domestic) are clearly in play.
  15. Weekend from September 19-22th Rank Movie Weekend Change Total 1 It Chapter Two 101.411 -43% 650.500 2 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 32.353 3% 80.209 3 Crawl 26.236 New 26.236 4 The Angry Birds Movie 2 17.322 6% 140.079 5 The Art of Racing in the Rain 12.377 -24% 36.710 6 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 12.086 -22% 231.171 7 Extremely Wicked. Shockingly Evil and Vile 10.677 -27% 32.425 8 The Lion King 8.519 -2% 2.433.853 9 Good Boys 6.338 New 6.338 10 Yesterday 5.140 -37% 35.919 This was a 5 day holiday weekend but it was Fiestas Patrias (National Holiday) which depress the Box Office and indeed, total admissions were down 23% vs last weekend. Most of that is due to IT 2 which had an awful hold and will probably miss 1m admissions given that the Joker will likely steal most of its thunder. Kid's movies stayed flat but should be destroyed by Abominable next weekend. Everything else had good holds but on very low numbers.
  16. Joker, 11 days before release,17% of the market 62 showings for OD | 14.742 seats available | 730 tickets sold Excellent presales for the Joker, outpacing Spiderman FFH by 10% and could target Captain Marvel final PS or maybe even more. Also, on the ground I sense a lot of excitement about the movie. I expect great things from its BO.
  17. Weekend, September 12-15th. # Movie Weekend Change Total 1 It Chapter Two 179.408 -20% 477.896 2 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 31.331 New 31.331 3 The Angry Birds Movie 2 16.365 -48% 113.632 4 The Art of Racing in the Rain 16.335 New 16.335 5 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 15.499 -45% 212.255 6 Extremely Wicked. Shockingly Evil and Vile 14.637 New 14.637 7 The Lion King 8.703 -66% 2.420.754 8 Yesterday 8.206 -39% 27.223 9 Missing Link 5.751 New 5.751 10 Araña 2.096 / 62.737 It 2 continues to dominate with a solid hold while Dora bombs hard, tough that didn't stop the explorer from destroying Angry Birds 2 and specially The Lion King. This is somewhat surprising as it had done fairly well in Perú. Another bomb is Missing Link, altough it have very limited showings (one per day in some cases) the result is still very bad considering it did go wide. Angry Birds 2 passed the OW of the first one but the first full week seems unreachable. Just ssad. Once Upon a Time can't stabilize but due its nature it should get a small boost from the arthouse system.
  18. Top of the year so far Toy Story 4: 3.196.330 Avengers Endgame: 3,094,876 The Lion King: 2.404.705* Captain Marvel: 1,388,264 Spider-Man Far from Home: 1,086,451 How to Train your Dragon: The Hidden World: 1,059,714 Aladdin 807,512** Dragon Ball Super Broly: 800,617 Pokemon Detective Pikachu 629,144 Dumbo: 608,842 All movies should be slightly higher with the final numbers, specially Aladdin. The top 3 of the year is also the all time top 3, that is just pure insanity. Other million admissions contenders are Frozen, It 2 and Joker. Star Wars and Jumanji could do it too but not on calendar year, so Chile will probably have to wait to see a year with 10 movies over million admissions.
  19. Weekend September 5-8th # Movie Weekend Change Total 1 It: Chapter Two 223.357 New 233.645 2 The Angry Birds Movie 2 31.405 -37% 90.009 3 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 28.320 -48% 187.867 4 The Lion King 25.307 -49% 2.404.705 5 Yesterday 13.483 New 14.400 6 Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw 7.300 -67% 422.631 7 Angel has Fallen 5.514 -63% 52.660 8 The Little Mermaid( re-release) 4.232 New 4.232 9 Paw Patrol: Mighty Pups 3.062 -71% 152.614 10 K-12 2.072 New 2.077 It 2 opened 21% behind the first movie (17% counting the previews) but it is still an excellent result. The first movie did 1,291m admissions in total. If it 2 can sustain the ratio it could still crack a million admission. Angry Birds 2 still hasnt reached the OW of the first one and could miss it if Dora does decently this weekend OUATIH suffered a lot from competition with IT, despite this, it is now oficially the most successful Tarantino Movie.
  20. It: Chapter 2, 2 days before release, 17% of the Market. FINAL PREVIEWS. 67 showings for OD | 15.509 seats available | 752 ticket sold. IT 2 final presale came in 9% behind Anabelle 3 presales but Anabelle didn't have Wednesdays previews, which deflate IT OD PS (I'm sorry, I didn't have time to track those properly. They do look fine BTW, nothing groundbreaking but not bad either). Now, If we only know how much Anabelle did on OW... Maybe a comp worth exploring could be Hobbs and Shaw, which would give a 1,1m USD opening. Well, It is not like WB is going to report its gross anyway...
  21. Rank Movie Weekend Change Total 1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 54.340 -16% 141.933 2 The Angry Birds Movie 2 50.179 New 50.299 3 The Lion King 49.674 -17% 2.367.519 4 Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw 22.221 -24% 409.320 5 Angel has Fallen 14.741 -30% 42.768 6 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 10.938 -32% 91.056 7 Paw Patrol: Mighty Pups 10.644 -37% 147.879 8 Toy Story 4 9.640 -29% 3.196.330 9 Ready or Not 7.782 -31% 23.396 10 Araña 6.555 -40% 53.006 Data Courtesy of Dada as always. After last weekend apocalypsis this frame brought very soft drops, even for the weakest releases. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is doing very well. Should continue to have solid drops. Next weekend it should pass both Django Unchained (158k admissions) and Inglorius Bastards (173k) to become the most viewed Tarantino's movie in the market. Angry Birds 2 barely beated TLK and suffered a 65% decline from the first one OW. It could still save some face if it weathers Dora decently enough next weekend. Speaking of the Lion King, it passed Infinity War and now is the third most viewed movie of all time. Amazing result, but as in the rest of LA it was clearly held back by TS4
  22. Again, thank you so much for this. Do you have the top 10 of most viewed movies in Chile this year so far?
  23. It 2. 7 days before release , 17% of the maket 69 showings for OD | 15.978 seats available | 176 tickets sold. These presales are not good, but they are being deflated by Wednesday's previews. Will see if I can track those over the weekend.
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