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Arendelle Legion

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Arendelle Legion last won the day on March 10

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About Arendelle Legion

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  1. Added 8k today, up to 28.5k. Bit less % growth than F2 on similar day, but still strong this far out. Give another couple days to get a clearer picture of where PS are heading.
  2. Pretty normal run through the end. If there are unusual effects from the capacity limit we aren’t close yet. At least 2020 will add one movie to the Billie list.
  3. Tbf, I would put more emphasis on the “kind of” than the “pathetic,” and that doesn’t really come through via text. I’m not saying it’s actively bad PS, more that it’s hard to say based just on that tidbit of info, so it doesn’t affect my thinking much either way. That’s because of: low magnitude of competition for ticket sales on a weekday in these conditions lack of clarity about how many venues are currently PS vs will ultimately show it uncertainty about how well advertised the start of PS here is compared to a usual PS run uncertainty about how possible pent up demand, especially among big Nolan fans, after all these months and delays might skew the shape of the PS run for the first movie back Basically, “over 50%” doesn’t exactly impress me under the circumstances but my overall assessment is a big ?
  4. JFC, finally earned yourself an ignore with this uncalled for personal shit. and as for the actual numerical analysis, I guess it’s strong if you complete forget how first day PS works 🙃
  5. Maoyan did normalize at night, but still on the slow side with about ¥1.45M today. Still heading for a big weekend but my expectations are definitely lowering a bit.
  6. All-time ranks work much better than yearly. More volume means less variance and much less sensitive to “were there a lot of blockbusters that happened to release this year.” But yeah, it’s not perfect, especially at the very top ranks since you again can have a big effect from very outlier runs. I’d be pretty comfortable to say that a movie which made, say #61 WW in its time (TWS for instance) would translate to about 61st now (BoRhap at 900M). But I definitely wouldn’t be comfortably saying that just because Potter made #2 it would be a 2.8B, or that Age of Ultron doing #5 means it would do 2B. An overly tight correspondence like that doesn’t work with the various historical quirks of the different times. There’s a lot of wiggle room here though. Putting Potter below 2B means a movie 2nd place in its time doing 6th place now, and I don’t think Endgame+Avatar+Titanic+TFA+IW are all historical outliers enough for that to make sense. There were some historically great runs for the time that HP1 did surpass after all.
  7. China is hardly the only market expansion though. I just don’t see any movie performance that was top 2 at the time corresponding to less than 2B.
  8. Imo: RotK easy 2B+ TTT probably FotR more in the JW-2B range
  9. Market growth worth more than that imo. Iirc it was 2nd highest import in China in 2002? And HP franchise was highest import in a couple years. That points to 300-400M+ in today’s China, vs just 20M atp and er adjusted. Bit of market growth in other territories and you’re over 2B. Also it was #2 WW. Ranks don’t translate perfectly across decades but seeing as how even #5 nowadays is 2B+ I’ve gotta consider HP1’s performance a 2B+ analogue.
  10. Today was a bit slow, even for a Sat. Still heading towards a nice open.
  11. The 2000 in 24 hours is basically an accounting trick with time of day. E.g. if on Wednesday they report a lot at 1PM, Thu report a lot of the day by 11AM, the a substantial fraction of the 2-day total is in that 24 hour window. We haven’t had a single day over 2000 from any source of data with a real daily reporting window (worldometers or covid19tracking, for instance). I wouldn’t be surprised if we do have a couple days where it happens, but the 7-day average isn’t going to get close so those comments you quoted were correct.
  12. Demand is determined by price, but usually a well chosen price from a profit perspective generates a lot of complaining from people who wish they were getting a bigger consumer surplus (or who are actually priced out) without implying that cheaper would have been a better decision.
  13. People love complaining that [thing] is overpriced almost as much as they love buying [thing] anyway.
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