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Arendelle Legion

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Arendelle Legion last won the day on December 13 2019

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  1. Yep, 2016 was 430M worse in the top 5, but had great middle strength and lead by almost 700M for the rest of movies. 2020 will lag by a lot more than that in the top 5 and I don’t really see the lower movies being particularly strong. I mean, maybe everything pleasantly overperforms, but in the average case...
  2. You can't fudge 10M, and some Disney help would likely already have involved in hitting 490 in the first place.
  3. Thinking at least a 5% gross dip, given a pretty modest ATP growth would be first year below 1.2B admits since 1992. Could go under 1992, but I think it can at least beat 1991. Not in admits per capita of course, that'll be the lowest since 1980 easily, probably ever.
  4. Lol, typical that I have to use 2018 $ since 2019 isn’t available yet, and 2019 ATP drops an hour later: https://deadline.com/2020/01/movie-ticket-sales-2019-decline-domestic-box-office-1202834469/ rose by just .5%, 9.11 to 9.16, quite low by historical standards. Very curious how 2020 ATP will go.
  5. DOM is too high, as Misafeco said. I would go 480-490 but the upper end is quite optimistic 😛 The OS territories I can comment on (checked about 10) all looked good.
  6. Also Adjusted seems to be (2018 $): Jan 101 Doggos 910M Feb Black Panther 694M Mar Sound of Music 1.3B Apr Endgame 867M May Star Wars 1.62B Jun E.T. 1.29B Jul Forrest Gump 715M Aug Mary Poppins 711M Sep Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid 642M Oct 10 Commandments 1.2B Nov Ben-Hur 890M Dec GwtW 1.84B With the caveat that several of those movies have the bulk of their gross from runs the began in other months entirely. So you could also try to look at the biggest adjusted single run per month, but that seemed a hassle. Anyway I was a bit surprised to find that 2 of them are also the unadjusted monthly winner, 0 would have been a very plausible result.
  7. Hmm, only 4/12 months, shameful. At least April and Feb should be safe for a long while. Those are all pretty solid defending champions tbh, I don’t see much to challenge any of them coming up. BP2 would need a sick DOM hold, if it even stays in May, obviously 0 chance in April. I guess the lowest months aside from Jan are: Aug 333M Sep 327M Oct 334+Oscar boost Nov 485ish The MCU keeps taking swings in Nov, but F2 numbers are a big ask for those. If Oct 2022 is Gotg3 or CM2 that’d do the trick, AM3 or Blade not so much.
  8. 1) Eternals Black Widow Raya Jungle Cruise Mulan Lovebirds The Gentlemen 355 Tenet 10)Dune
  9. Looks like 21B had a really strong Philly performance, I think that will prove a strong comp in terms of BB’s national figure. Would still bode an excellent weekend of course.
  10. You guys all know that that synopsis is 100% made up BS, right? It’s from IMDB, which anyone can edit with no source, and there are never real synopses 16 months before release...
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