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Arendelle Legion

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Arendelle Legion last won the day on November 16

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About Arendelle Legion

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  1. We’re in a bit of an unusual situation right now where Disney, the big OW driver, put a lot of huge OWs all in a year or two. So I think it’s quite possible (highly likely, even) that the next 2 years or so will see a subdued period for OWs as things “recharge.” But while there’s a bit of a periodical nature, it’s really a periodical modification of a long-term exponential trend. On a time scale of 5, 6, 7 years we should see big OW growth driven by new and renewed IP, like we did from 2012 to now, 2005 to 2012, 1998 to 2005, 91 to 98, 84 to 91, etc etc. If not, that’ll be a huge warning flag imo that something has changed in the “people physically traveling to a large screen to see a new movie” model.
  2. I think the slowdown in ATP is caused in part by people increasingly taking advantage of cheap Tuesday tickets, which isn’t sustainable. But that’s a conversation for another day.
  3. Oh, I totally missed the point Yeah, I can’t imagine what it be like seeing people go “this movie might miss 400M OW, how pathetic” when enough time has passed.
  4. OWs have grown pretty steadily and reliably for decades. If that stops (or even reverses, as it seems like you’re hypothesizing) it will be a paradigm shift that’s a very, very, very bad sign for the theater industry as a whole, because it’d probably indicate streaming fears actually materializing. But I think what you’ll actually find in the next half dozen years is 150M+ openings becoming increasingly common, and less impressive, and 200M+ openings becoming increasingly common, and less impressive, and 250M+ openings becoming increasingly common... and, okay, still pretty damn fucking impressive.
  5. Eh, I dunno man. Things change over time. Numbers that a half dozen years ago would be spectacular without any possible exception and independent of context become numbers that... aren’t necessarily. Now for TROS, I’d say that 190 is still pretty fine, not “hilarious.” But a $199M OW on April 26th this year would have been a legit cause for a What Went Wrong. That’s just a huge OW nowadays, not megahuge, imo.
  6. They weren’t in the first two paragraphs, so they don’t deserve to exist. No but for real, what was deadline doing hiding them all the way down there? What a hassle.
  7. The 19-35 range struck me as even more classic. That’d be like calling for 190-350 for some movie
  8. Thanks for the numerical details. Yeah, it would be weird to only manipulate certain metrics 🤷‍♂️ I believe IW and EG has made MCU movies globally have an unusually high like:view/share ratio. I never liked a YT video before the IW trailer, but now my YT like activity is basically “every MCU or Frozen trailer.” Anecdotally it seems other people are/were similar.
  9. https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-little-women-spies-in-disguise-uncut-gems-1202801742/ Jumanji 30+ TROs 200+, some saying as low as 175 Uncut Gems 15M 5-day Spies in Disguise 23-30 5-day Little Women 19-35 5-day (lmfao)
  10. Now this is very interesting. I don’t know enough about Weibo to check these other metrics, but is possible that shares are partially bot driven then? Or manipulated in some other way? Just seems like a huge discrepancy considering the shares are well over 4x BW.
  11. Oh fo sho. I don’t really see how they imagine this going down though. It’s 3.6M away, and even if the PTA was flat this weekend (will drop) it would turn in less than 1M. Maybe just want to get it within striking distance for a second push in holiday season proper, but will they really get much business for a Halloween vibe movie with Frozen, Jumanji, and Spies in Disguise in the Christmas corridor? They should have done a first push earlier and a second now to seal the deal.
  12. Agree with @misafeco and narniadis here. TROS weekend will be unavoidably impacted, but holiday timing could keep keep TROS week pretty flat.
  13. No actually, they don’t. 200*.55+400*.4+600*.21=396M revenue, equivalent to say 340+450+138. China provides less revenue, but it hardly rounds to 0.
  14. If it does well enough in China doesn’t really need the rest of the world to follow. 200+400+600 is still huge.
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