Legion Again
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Posts posted by Legion Again
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25 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Were the Friday jumps terrible because of spring break?
Yeah, basically. Somewhat inflated Mon-th
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Yeah regional differences in spring break can throw off regional comps during these months
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10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Will be funny when you are wrong for both.
Naa G:empire is avg so I’m safe
SpoilerAm thinking maybe like 35&65 yeah
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5 hours ago, filmlover said:
I can't be the only one who has to do a double take as to whether the movie being tracked is Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire or Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire right?
Predicting G:Empire to open with 40-60M
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Starting so early for a small nonIP like this basically makes any D1 stuff useless, as well as the middle period. I wouldn’t want to draw anything but the most broad conclusions (“looks like single digits guys”) until at least like t-10
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19 hours ago, M37 said:
Mind the Gap
I know this really isn’t quite the place to post this analysis, but wanted it in an active/ongoing forum to be able to refer back to it; but hiding most under spoiler boxes to not clog up the thread
So you know that whole $225-$325M domestic total Dead Zone I keep going on about? After further review, turns out it's both very real (and spectacular?), and is not a direct result of a shrinking post-pandemic theatrical audience, but rather started even a few years before COVID
The Data
The Theory
The Catch
The But
My first comment was going to be that I think the baseline scenario would be lognormal rather than normal… but the 2nd graph (with exponential x-axis) basically covers that perfectly. And we did indeed get my suspected triple peak, exactly where I was suspecting it
18 hours ago, Porthos said:re: The But
ATP hikes are also gonna play a part sooner or later. Yes, as ticket prices rise, some folks will either get priced out or decide tickets are too costly. At the same time as purchasing power rises and memories fade about how much ticket used to cost, then it starts to ebb back.
Or to put a different way, might just see the gap shift a bit as time moves on. Be interesting to look for at the macro level over the next three, four, five years.
Perhaps unsurprisingly this would be my 2nd comment, although it shouldn’t make a huge difference in 2015vs 2019 or 2021 vs 2024 I feel like nominal introduces a bit of noise whereas admits/adjusted would reveal more of a real pattern across time. Definitely not going to change the big picture takeaway though.
If we didn’t pull anything 90-100 then the 100-110ish range is suppressed a bit by only getting 50%+ of the adjacency window that the other values have, right? This is another thing that doesn’t really affect the main point just want to make sure I’m understanding the process correctly.
The lowest hanging fruit going forward imo would be seeing the graphs for like 5% or 20%, but this is already a very cool dynamic to have quantified a bit more
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Hmm, I guess Panda could kill gap 🤔
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8 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:
I thought we as a culture moved on from offensive redface.
Look if you wanna sell “Turning White” to the boys in marketing, be my guest
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2 hours ago, M37 said:
Ooh, that’s a great choice of metric. Although, I feel like +/- 10% would also be very interesting. And of course you can turn parameters up or down — I wonder if it’s possible to get a meaningful triple peak
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39 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:
Thank goodness for that. These movies are the only gigs @The Panda can get in Hollywood. Though maybe there’s an opening for Zootopia 2.
Gotta initiate talks for Turning Redder
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I mean, it was a better guess for OWeek then total — but it basically came true for total, so very much a moment
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36 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:
I mean I’ve only been following kfp4 for weeks now and for most part besides week, I saw 30-35 million predictions ow
so I mean if it does 50 million that’s amazing to me, growth from kfp2 and kfp3 especially when budget is 40% less than 2nd and 3rd movie
We are still talking quite a bit down from KFP2 tickets tbf
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4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
I don’t think KFP4 has done anything extraordinary. Was thinking 45-55 for it for last 3 weeks or so and its doing that.
Yeah I feel like mostly thread had been expecting/I had been expecting based on thread 3-4*12-15ish, which comes out to 41-53 or so.
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1 hour ago, ando said:
So Timothee is the lead in the two biggest films since last summer. Pretty crazy moment for him.
Pretty crazy moment for "since last summer" when you consider that the two films combined don't make for an especially large number of tickets
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3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
If my club works out who's getting the credit?
I mean I was OUT at closing time, so
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2 hours ago, Bob Train said:
So Dune had a lower Thursday than expected, but IM'd better than expected, ending in the expected mid-80s range...
No it had the expected Previews of 12 and expected IM of 7.
The Golden Path
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Still nothing 216-298 since SC
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11.5-21-25-18.5// 76
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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
I don't see it doing 85+. Gonna go with 82 mil.
😈
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HummingLemon pulling zaslav's strings
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The prophecy marches on
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
You must look inside your heart to find the truth