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Legion Again

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Posts posted by Legion Again

  1. 1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

     

    Well then the question is, do you mean with that

     

    a) that you dont like the Monsterverse movies and would like to see the movie open on the low end of expectations in which case why are you so mean?

    b) you would like to see an 8, in which case im fully on board!

    c) you generally dislike the number 7.

     

    Im eagerly anticipating your answer.

    You must look inside your heart to find the truth 

  2. 19 hours ago, M37 said:

    Mind the Gap

     

    I know this really isn’t quite the place to post this analysis, but wanted it in an active/ongoing forum to be able to refer back to it; but hiding most under spoiler boxes to not clog up the thread

     

     

    So you know that whole $225-$325M domestic total Dead Zone I keep going on about? After further review, turns out it's both very real (and spectacular?), and is not a direct result of a shrinking post-pandemic theatrical audience, but rather started even a few years before COVID

    iLPBJTu.png

    The Data

      Reveal hidden contents

     

    The Theory

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    The Catch

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    The But

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    My first comment was going to be that I think the baseline scenario would be lognormal rather than normal… but the 2nd graph (with exponential x-axis) basically covers that perfectly. And we did indeed get my suspected triple peak, exactly where I was suspecting it :)   
     

    18 hours ago, Porthos said:

     

    re: The But

     

    ATP hikes are also gonna play a part sooner or later.  Yes, as ticket prices rise, some folks will either get priced out or decide tickets are too costly.  At the same time as purchasing power rises and memories fade about how much ticket used to cost, then it starts to ebb back.

     

    Or to put a different way, might just see the gap shift a bit as time moves on.  Be interesting to look for at the macro level over the next three, four, five years.

    Perhaps unsurprisingly this would be my 2nd comment, although it shouldn’t make a huge difference in 2015vs 2019 or 2021 vs 2024 I feel like nominal introduces a bit of noise whereas admits/adjusted would reveal more of a real pattern across time. Definitely not going to change the big picture takeaway though.   
     

    If we didn’t pull anything 90-100 then the 100-110ish range is suppressed a bit by only getting 50%+ of the adjacency window that the other values have, right? This is another thing that doesn’t really affect the main point just want to make sure I’m understanding the process correctly.  
     

    The lowest hanging fruit going forward imo would be seeing the graphs for like 5% or 20%, but this is already a very cool dynamic to have quantified a bit more

    • Thanks 1
  3. 2 hours ago, M37 said:

     

     

    Double peaks!

    228mWYB.png

     

    Well There It Is Jurassic Park GIF

     

    I'll do a full write up in a more visible/high traffic thread (prob tracking?), but wanted to at least share the first aggregation of the data

    Ooh, that’s a great choice of metric. Although, I feel like +/- 10% would also be very interesting. And of course you can turn parameters up or down — I wonder if it’s possible to get a meaningful triple peak

    • Like 1
  4. 36 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

    I mean I’ve only been following kfp4 for weeks now and for most part besides week, I saw 30-35 million predictions ow

     

    so I mean if it does 50 million that’s amazing to me, growth from kfp2 and kfp3 especially when budget is 40% less than 2nd and 3rd movie 

    We are still talking quite a bit down from KFP2 tickets tbf

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