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Legion Again

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Everything posted by Legion Again

  1. Legion Again
    This is the way
  2. Legion Again
    This is rather broad, so I’m just gonna say the X chromosomes. Never trust somebody with an X chromosome.
  3. Legion Again
    It did well on BO too! 23M was a big OW at the time.
  4. Legion Again
    If it tanks on BO it tanks on Max. The movies that do great on Max are the ones that do great at the BO. I feel like we have enough data now the picture is pretty clear.
  5. Legion Again
    You mean... because it's not going day and date, it will be discussed contrastively?
  6. Legion Again
    Obviously these factors are part of it but delta concerns couldn’t justify opening, say, 30% below JC just last week. And Max couldn’t justify opening around the level of MK or C3 or whatever, and behind stuff like SJ2.
  7. Legion Again
    Yeah, thanks Porthos, a lot of this recent stuff is really more suited for the reopening thread (Or the TSS thread). On a separate note though, I am wondering with the increased awareness of and interest in the buzz thread that we seem to have now (which is not purely a past week phenomenon, it’s been happening since pre-covid imo) if it could make sense to have a dedicated numbers only thread+ another thread for discussion/interpretation thereof.
  8. Legion Again
    Now that’s quite hyperbolic. That measure was at 70% for JC and will probably be ~66-67% for TSS — like a 5% drop in comfort. 5% off of 35M would still be 33M or so.
  9. Legion Again
    I’ve gotta ask @Shawn, since you’re around — just how much did you guys bring TSS down from 35-60 in the intervening week that us plebs haven’t seen? I understand if you can’t say for proprietary reasons, but with the weekend forecast proper going up in like 24 hours anyway I figured I’d shoot my shot.
  10. Legion Again
    AFAIK, trades generally don’t look at sales much and rely more on the official studios estimate and poll based tracking firms+subjective historical comps. Sometimes it works out well, but usually… not so much.
  11. Legion Again
    Yes, conceivably the IM could go below 6. It is the first Max release with Th previews, so more uncertainty than usual. SS had a 6.5x IM — but with no Max and radically higher previews it’s not really much of a comp. Also, expected strong WOM May drag the IM higher. At this point I am pessimistic 6/optimistic 8
  12. Legion Again
    This is the first movie since DS1 which is about a title character that hadn’t appeared or been strongly teased in a prior movie. I have some delta concerns but I think it makes sense that trends and stuff would be low for it a month out because there isn’t pre-existing hype/interest the way that the last… 10? Movies have had. Despite that DS1 opened to rank 64 (modern equivalent 97M). I’m not expecting 97M here by any means, but just to say that it’s a bit of a different situation than we’ve had for the MCU in a long time.
  13. Legion Again
    “Bad/not enough marketing” is simply the go to phrase for when a movie people want/think should be big… isn’t. Not much relation to the actual state of the marketing.
  14. Legion Again
    Not too bad a hit from TSS here. 3M should happen.
  15. Legion Again
    BOP’s long range of 15-35 seems quite solid from the first few days. Only modestly under the 20-40 they had for JC, which seems like the most natural comp.
  16. Legion Again
    Man, there’s optimism and then there’s “should be sufficient for low teens Friday.” I *hope* so but I really think you’re just setting people up to be disappointed here. Either way, great to have MTC1 numbers, thanks for stopping by.
  17. Legion Again
    And… it isn’t. May I interest you in a little known technique called “being realistic?”
  18. Legion Again
    Being overly optimistic isn’t really going to help with toxicity though? At least, I can’t see a causal mechanism there. If a movie is heading for a number that would be disappointing, then better to set low expectations in advance and let people recalibrate gradually vs being shocked and disappointed all at once?
  19. Legion Again
    Imagine actually believing this
  20. Legion Again
    Optimistically 5*7.5 would be 37.5 Realistically maybe 4*7 for 28 Pessimistic maybe 3.2*6.5 for 21M
  21. Legion Again
    Well, an IM under 7 seems very reasonable based on the fundamentals, and the MTC Th vs Fri sales reinforce that. I have to imagine we would see the same in Philly, Sacto, Utah, etc if people went digging for Fri sales. So it’s mostly the preview where I’d hope to see your regions miss. And looking at other data seems quite plausible — depending on how optimistic you wanna get with comps
  22. Legion Again
    Well then. Hopefully your areas are outlying on the low side.
  23. Legion Again
    We’re at the point where I won’t be surprised if they are my favorite two movies so far this year and I also won’t be that surprised if they combined open below 40M.
  24. Legion Again
    👀
  25. Legion Again
    So, lol, The Rock being The Rock. It was a really quite nice Sat though. I wonder if that bodes well for legs.
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