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Legion Again

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Posts posted by Legion Again

    Weekdays Thread | #THU - Godzilla -1.0 $1.28M, TBOSS $1.148M, Beyonce $1.145M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, Brainbug said:

     

    And important to remeber that a 50M final gross would already be enough to be in the Top 5 all time foreign language grossers in the US. Anything above 57,2M would be enough to reach Number 2. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragons 128M ofc is not a realistic target.

     

      Hide contents

    For now

     

    Number 2 nominal would certainly be a result far surpassing expectations though as always I am a Debbie downer who can’t help wondering about admits.    
     

    Legs will be equally good in $$ and tix though :) 

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

     

    Well, since you asked...

     

    $6M.

     

    Do I have a comp?  Nope.  

     

    I mean, I was tempted to give a Sound of Freedom comp - aka, a movie that normally appeals to a very narrow base, which came out of nowhere right before open with large presales and decent reviews, and then grew over OW from spectacular WOM that extended past its narrow base and into the public at large. 

     

    But, that comp would have to be an increase from this weekend...and as you said, The Boy and The Heron is gonna overlap a lot:)...

     

    But, you did ask for a comp, and since we don't have a foreign movie that broke through its tiny market to the GA at large, I got more creative.

    FWIW I think a small increase on true fss is possible. Always hard to call such things with only the current amount of data available though

    • Like 1

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

    Is there even a good smaller comp? Which big blockbuster this year opened to sub-$25M (b/c that's where Aquaman is tracking)?

     

    Also you're one of the most accurate trackers/predictors on this forum

    Aquaman's weekend will be hurt by the calendar but I meant a movie with smaller pre-sales for th. BB and SZH2 are the natural choices though they'll require some care handling differences in length until we hit final week.

    • Like 1

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

    (0.372x) of The Marvels $2.45M Previews

    (0.458x) of Indy 5 $3.30M Previews

    (0.169x) of GOTG 3 $2.96M Previews

    (0.459x) of The Flash $4.45M Previews

    Comps AVG: $3.29M

     

    Well, Blue beetle comp will probably spit out $6.5M. Not sure if I'm going to add it 

     

    3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

    Blue Beetle and Shazam are much better comps than Guardians for this movie. Its smaller and they are also DCEU movies !!!

    Just to add to this, would be useful to have at least one comp that is smaller than it instead of bigger. I'd feel more comfortable whipping out the Ole size adjusted comp at that point

     

    I would do a few days of first N vs first N instead of the straight T-N though

    • Like 1

    Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

    I mean I never thought it was gonna be that good, I just thought that there was alot of audience interest in it, and it's still gonna finish above HOG. The 3m previews prove that audiences were into it, but I can understand now why it isn't getting great legs.

    My main takeaway is that a Napoleon movie in the near future which actually is what audiences want might have a lot of potential.   
     

    My takeaway from the Hunger Games (relative) success is that we’re past due for a Gregor the Overlander adaptation 🔥

    • Like 1
    • Heart 1

    Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

    Like to elaborate on this 8/10 of the years in the 2010s had a Disney film at #1, and in the two years where they weren't they were still in the Top 3 highest grossers. This kind of massive brand collapse of like...everything Disney, not just one sub-brand is going to take a bit to recover from. 

    Wild how with 10s of B on the line they simply could not manage to write decent scripts 🤣  

     

    Not even like, great, just… not awful

    • Like 2

    Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, CJohn said:

    Any new Wednesday numbers? I sure hope Napoleon rebounded a bit because that OD IM DHD mentioned is absolutely atrocious.

    The reception seems exceptionally bad too so I dunno if I’d expect much from 3day/wed.   
     

    Kind of mind boggling that this nov will probably lose to all since 1997 unadjusted — the average ticket price is like 250% of what it was then

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    FWiW since I had someone on Reddit ask me several time to put my AQM2 thoughts in this thread, my read of this start (mostly going off Porthos Lannister jat keyser) is ~3-4.5 previews, 5-6 IM (this may seem very pessimistic but the Fri Dec 22 release is really bad for IM — you make it up on total/ow), 4-5 legs unless reception overperforms. Midpoint say 3.5->20 -> 85, could get very close with Marvels

     

    Absolutely dead genre which is awkward since it’s been propping the industry up for some half dozen years. A lot will hinge on whether Gunnverse and the at this point inevitable hard course correction of saga 2 can return to solid nums or not.

    • Like 7

    THE UNMARVELOUS WEEKEND THREAD | FEATURING MELTDOWNS, ARMCHAIR ANALYSIS, AND SEXISM

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Legion Again

    6 hours ago, Hatebox said:


    But that’s my point - if those jobs are that dependent on MCU sustaining itself then the industry is already in a bleak place. In a healthy industry there’d be a ton of other projects they could easily work on outside of that, because in a healthy industry the mid-market wouldn’t have been gutted out. 
     

     

    Depending in part on something that could fail and depending in part on something that is failing are just very qualitatively different situations, I’m not sure what more to say 🤷‍♂️ 

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