Comeback Legion

Kind of looking like 193 os 197 dom type now.

HW films still aren't officially releasing there considering they're still committing aggressive atrocities in Ukraine

71 away. Maybe adding 12ish dom but could be like 8-20 depending on lilo impact. OS week of 11.5, adding 20-30? Again depending lilo. Yeah this ain't happening

Yeah for this trio of movies it's wknd 2&4 thst give the separation. Bolts was between the other two for wknd 2 and expect we'll see the same for 4. They'd only be worth a mil or two but I wonder if it gets much L&S doubles

Thunderbolts has a better pta this weekend in the non 70mm locs. It's not like either of them will have an amount of seats that impairs the ~10M they'll be doing next weekend. Minecraft and accountant will be gutted to the bone though

Not sure if many people remember gotg3 also dropped 48% this wknd.

Probably ~56M week with actuals so takes ~ 36% avg drops, agreed very hard. 410 just takes 40% drops, probbaly right ballpark but could smidge under with mi8+l&s impact

Sinners: 25.5M dom week (-28%) Add ~2x for 50-55 added, 290-295ish OS 7M week (-42%) Add about 1.5x for 87ish finish WW roughly 380. Will be within 10% of bolts, still spectacular

Yeah to a degree the extra markets can add a bunch if idiosyncratic wrinkles. Can also have some nice dynamics where the aggregation smooths out some of that stuff though. Generally I project the Dom left to add and then give it a smidgen better OS multiplier off past 7 days. So for this case: Disney has finally gone a bit pessimistic on a Sunday looking at pre Victoria day mcu drops. Going to go with 28M added since end of last wknd. Post pandemic multipliers off that period: Gotg3 +1.77x Ds2 +1.37x Competition is closer to ds2, reception closet to gotg3 (but not as good as). Split the difference a bit pessimsitically call it 1.5x, add 42, finish ~197. OS week also added ~28, dropping a bit worse than Dom but os late legs tend to be better (partly a compositional thing as faster dropping markets represent less and less % of the basket compared to longer leg skewing ones). Probably adds about the same there to add ~85 in total, like 195+210, 408+-12ish

Why are people so bad at projecting WW finishes?

Yeah 85 seems incredibly optimistic. Thunderbolts had a good sat. 3rd wknd is ~23% of OW. Holding fine-good given competition and A-

Yeah no joke that will be closer to OW than DOM. I don't really see how someone could be skeptical of doomsday when dpw just did 211->637. Everyone can see that the small ball filsm are struggling more but events are still eventing

FF Superman Elio

There is uh, a little tension here, to say the least 😛

12th will probably be high 2s for bolts low 2s for sinners.