Neither were gotg in 2014, or captain America in 2011, or thor in 2011, or doctor strange in 2016, or Shang-Chi in 2021, or so on and so on. Don’t really need much pre-existing popularity to open 100M nowadays as long as you’ve got a decent movie, good marketing, and not a big build up of brand damage (the DS2-QM stretch of fiascos is a bit faded now, as well as some D+ stinkers, and DPW has hopefully helped some). We’ll see in time whether they can deliver on the first two
I dunno, Incredibles 3? Here’s some that have done it adjusted (plus some close ones that will soon adjust to enough):
Rank
Film
Adjusted OW
2
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
326.7977391
6
Jurassic World
275.188393
7
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
272.4982205
10
The Dark Knight
245.1186201
13
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
237.0359738
14
The Lion King
232.5956124
16
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
230.0606889
17
The Dark Knight Rises
224.555417
18
Incredibles 2
222.7955251
20
Beauty and the Beast
216.4412358
21
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
216.0155142
22
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
215.1458777
23
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
213.2186081
24
The Hunger Games
212.8984072
25
The Twilight Saga: New Moon
211.5921332
26
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
206.6532773
27
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
199.1855622
28
Shrek the Third
197.8756496
30
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2
196.8920022
31
Furious 7
193.9798723
32
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1
193.5104869
33
Shrek 2 #
193.2848908
I’ll take 2026 with:
Fire and ash
doomsday
animated sequel
wildcard
although I kinda hope doomsday gets pushed to 27 in which case 26 would be tougher (but doable)
This is actually a pretty interesting question right now. Here’s how I feel about 100M chances this year:
Joker 2 2/3
Venom 50%
Moana 2 70%
Treating those as independent, next 100M chances:
Joker 40/60
Venom 10/60
Moana 7/60
2025 3/60