I guess a counterpoint is that there are only 3 movies in the 1.5-2B range, whereas there were a bunch more in 500-1B in 2009. So maybe we should focus on 1.5B becoming common first 😛
I think we will get a lot of 2B the next decade, but mostly concentrated in the 2024-2029 area, few in 2019-2024. That’s how the Avatar and 1B comparison goes, and also makes basic sense with the non-linear growth of markets, prices, etc.
Yeah, it’s definitely still possible. I don’t expect to be saying that 7 days from now, but the multiplier required from these last days still isn’t that implausible as late legs.
Pretty meh Wed too. Hopefully we’re just seeing the runtime shift demand from weekdays to weekends now that the demand Frenzy has cooled off, rather than initial signs of a big dropoff.
Yesterday:
Today:
CW 653+200.5*1.02=858M
IM3 653+200.5*1.18=890M
IW 653++200.5*1.28=910M
AoU 653+200.5*1.27=908M
TA 653+200.5*1.65=984M
Starting to look like IM3 might be more where it lands than IW/AoU, though I hope not.
This would be bad for the BO, significantly reduces chance of a Labor Day reexpansion. Although with the way it’s been playing in IMAX wouldn’t be surprised if Disney and IMAX were happy to return it to those for Labor Day even with digital release available.
17 Pt 5/8/19 (End of 2nd Wed)
1 61.5% Avengers: Endgame
2 14.7% Detective Pikachu
3 3.6% Maharshi
4 3.3% Longshot
5 2.7% The Intruder
Strangely good hood for Endgame. Pikachu at less than 1/4 Endgame is a bit less than I thought, but doesn’t seem alarming.
There’s no crumbling narrative to reverse on though. There’s a “soft Tues” narrative that will never be reversed because it’s just observably true and doesn’t necessarily say anything about Wed or the wknd.
Oh come now. Is Endgame is uncharted waters? Yes, indubitably. But is breaking the OW record by 38% so different from breaking it by 20% that we can’t get any useful predictions out of carefully comparing runs? No.
It’s just odd to chose a low end figure that can’t actually happen. Like you could say “it’s still early, we don’t know how it will go, could finish as low as 700 or as high as 1.1” but that isn’t really true. There’s a happy medium between not portraying things as less uncertain than they are while also not portraying them as more uncertain than they are
There was a slight arithmetic error earlier, now corrected. I’d mostly ignore the lowest and highest, should probably do somewhere between IM3 and a bit above AoU.
So, I’m generally a fan of not giving excessively narrow ranges early in a run, but excessively broad ranges aren’t good either. This isn’t possible outside of a meteor or other huge external shock.