Cooper Legion

It’s beginning... Fully expecting that the Monday trailer with Endgame spoilers will come with a “tickets on sale now.” Would be a 57 day PS run if so, much the same as CM.

Challenge accepted

Basically a TA/IW increase, but not the strong bump that some (self included) were hoping for to compensate for Friday. 2nd weekend record looks tough, especially with a 3 hour movie running into trouble on Sun late nights.

Rth is tardy to the party

Admissions is moving in the right direction imo, but while it sort of dodges inflation and ERs it’s still very auspectible to market growth. Thus, as you indicate, maybe potential admissions as % of pop, or as % of pop with reasonable access to cinemas. But I think you’d find the latter two trend downward pretty steadily from the “can only see a movie in theaters” ERs to the “home video era” to the “streaming and peak TV” era. The beat ways to simultaneously try to account for all of those sorts of factors is to compare to surrounding movies, e.g. “admissions as a % of overall movie admissions for a 5-year window centered on the movie in question.” Although a hard N-year window is choppy, so maybe you instead want to smooth things out by taking an average of surrounding years with weight decreasing with distance. I don’t personally think you’re ever going to get a more meaningful result than “Endgame was by far the biggest movie of the 2010s era” “Avatar was by far the biggest movie of the 2000s era” Titanic was by far the biggest movie of the 1990s era” etc.

Productive exchange there guys. Very nuanced. Very persuasive...

See? I’m a prophet 😛

Blah blah market growth. Then I say “blah blah exchange rates.” Then someone else says “blah blah inflation.” On some level “fairly” comparing movies that are too far apart is just impossible. If (when) Endgame wins in $, it will have won. People can go in circles forever about adjusting for this, that and the other thing and you’ll never get anywhere definitive because there’s no where definitive to go.

They could probably make Black Widow April/May, Eternals Summer, Shang-Chi November if they want to fast track it. We’ll find out soon enough.

Daily Pulse breakage back in action As funny as this all is, it’s also a real bummer both for tracking near movies and building s comp history for near movies to use for farther movies. Hopefully Pulse doesn’t act up like this on the other big weekends of the year (FFH, TLK, etc)

Two theories I’ve seen floated in this thread that seem reasonable enough to me are: 1) now that the super rush has died down, the 3 hour runtime is taking a toll on evening shows, since a 10PM Endgame showing gets out as late as e.g. an 11PM CM showing. 2) now that the super rush has died down, people are putting a premium on seeing it in PLF. More people who wanted to book a PLF on Friday and saw all the good seats gone went “I’ll book another PLF later” vs “fine, we’ll watch it standard format tonight” than normal. We’ll never really know all the factors that went into it.

If the 3rd weekend drops big, it might be callable by then. But there’s also a scenario where Endgame keeps doing just enough each week that TFA is always in the “hard but can’t quite be ruled out” zone week 5, 6, 6, 10, etc. That’s how it was with BP and 700M, for instance.

Just give inflation 20 years to work it’s magic 😛

Less than a 1.4x multi from OW, they hated it

Assuming that you mean “best except for the one character who is so overwhelmingly best that they transcend rankings entirely” this is a very good take.

Endgame will have a -0.5x 2nd wknd multi and end below CM. My astrologer guarantees it.

C’mon Baumer, you’re supposed to be one of the level-headed wait until there’s enough data before saying things too certainly types. Saturday would need to have a pretty meh bump to call it before the 3rd weekend.

That’s 1.25 or less OS-C, some pretty bad legs. And really bad legs DOM, CW level 2nd weekend multi (with a 148 wknd). If you want a more realistic pessimistic I’d add 30M or so to each (this would baaaaarely miss Avatar ).

W/Th were misreported, it’s +24% from the actual Thurs.

Bingo. The dismissive attitudes that some people take towards wanting to see certain milestones passed can be really grating. This is is all a spectator sport in the end, once certain benchmarks are Locked to fall you need to move on to harder ones to keep things interesting. TFA was and still is an extremely natural goal for Endgame after the OW. If it falls short that will be a bit of an anti-climax. Nothing to do with how big the number is in a vacuum.

No. More like 2.18

They aren’t. Off a 165M weekend the odds would be pretty good, off 150 it needs better late legs than IW but that’s very much a possibility.

Well, there’s always this Tuesday 😛 But after that yeah, gonna be a good while. BP2 and next teams movie seem only decent shots.

😮

Shazam will go down as one of the most unfortunate release dates in history at this point. Not even sure if it will hit 140, maybe Pika double features can get the job done.