Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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3/3 would be some brutality, actually quite possible. If I was Brainbug I’d have shifted the conversation to Jurassic World at this point, that’s still got a long time in the top 10.
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Oh, in case it wasn't clear, I was totally agreeing with you. TFA’s legs after people went back to school were solid but nothing special, IW tier.
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Having mulled this hypothesis (longer movies relatively weaker on weekdays) over for a bit, I think it’s a pretty strong one, but may have been getting masked by the initial rush of demand (97 pure Friday for a 3 hour movie, lul). We’ll just have to wait 12 hours and see how Sat is playing, but on the optimistic side I could see a 3.8 IM for a 156M weekend. That would be a solid true FSS drop.
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10 days later, learning has been achieved 😛
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TFA made 79% of its gross in first 17 days, IW 81%. TFA 3.15x 3rd weekend multi, IW 3.1x. You might be thinking of @MagnarTheGreat‘s days to 90% stamina list?
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It’s about a parasite, what more do you even want 😛
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And for the record, acknowledging that 41 is on the low side and that’s kind of a bummer is very far from having a meltdown. I’m just saying there’s no need not to call a spade a spade just because the absolute numbers are big.
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If you want to defend 41 on its merits that’s fine. I’d argue that it clearly disappointing but only very slightly. My point is that “it’s more than many movies make in their whole run or OW” is a total nothing statement that doesn’t have any real bearing on whether the number is disappointing or not. Bad argument employed toward a generally reasonable overall point.
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News flash: everything is relative. A lot of movies don’t make 30M on their OW weekend either, but if yesterday dropped to 30M I hope you wouldn’t try to tell anyone that it wasn’t disappointing with a straight face.
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Is there a conventional wisdom regarding 3 hour films? I mean, it makes sense to me that the longer a film is the more weekend heavy it might play, but we haven’t had a big long film in like a decade and a half.
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40.8?
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Charlie has important real life stuff coming up, was pretty clear that he just got 2 updates about the data rather than doing full tracking this weekend. Thinking 43ish, can just wait 12 hours.
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It will be either 40 or 46 at this point, no other possibilities.
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Can’t wait for Deadline to clear everything up with a nice tidy 39-47 Fri range.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
But what word could you be talking about. It’s very mysterious. Unknown. Fundamentally difficult to predict. Perhaps, one might say, the word you mean is a real wildcard? -
41M 2nd Fri is disaster, time to replace Feige
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Still got 12 hours to chicken out, but 1B is perfectly live off this Friday and I am on board to ride or die.
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Ah, should have figured it would be the May 1 calendar configuration.
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45.5*3.66 is a perfectly reasonable path for the weekend, gives 166.5. Then drop 46% like IW and TA is 90. Still room for a tight race for that 3rd weekend record.
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What is Age of Ultron doing at 18% above IW? Anyway, I think Endgame should be able to beat Veteran at least but 2.5 seems tough.
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But still, I’m concerned
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The prophesied 45.7 is on its way, by the grace of west coast late nights.
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It would be for people in either of my club’s bonus options
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Headed for a 107M pure Fri after people realized the true allure of Pitbull
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Not sure what the value is in scrutinizing partial data from Charlie’s old source when Charlie and Rth have both dropped estimates already. Day seems headed for 43-45, not spectacular and not concerning. Weekend probably just (“just”) mid-high 150s from there, but can also hope for monster Sat.
