Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
This would be an awful Sat, what runs are you comping with? -
Just gotta out, gotta catch up on some threads around here. Definitely designed first and foremost with American cultural/comedic sensibilities, I can understand so-so reception in some Asian markets. That did, for DOM, an absolute crowdpleaser. Very well put together, well paced, gorgeous, hilarious, surprisingly emotional. Your typical marvel solo grand slam, probably just below IM1, GOtG1, and (close for me) BP for first entries. A definite GA accessible feel good 4 quad, action comedy and drama in solid balance. I think BB4L is toast.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Obviously we’ll have some high regions and some low ones, but good reason to think Canada and Regal can both overindex. It sounds like MTCs may come in 9.5ish and I think it’s about even on going O/U what they suggest this time. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
All these regionals look like 9+ to me after atp. Maybe everything just looks like 9-10 to my fandom addled brain, but then we have the MTCs. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I feel like this has gotta be @Shawn and co recognizing professional incentives to herd rather than a serious best guess forecast. No disrespect meant but how are you possibly getting 45 from these sales. It’s literally an excellent range for the Sat cume. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah it’s basically not possible without mass cancellations lol. Just wanted a figure “low” enough to get the point across emphatically — no matter how much effect you think Ida will have (personally, not that much) this thing basically can’t have a preview number which would make doom and gloom make sense! -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah, I’m not confined the actual number will be above the sacto ticket vs ticket anymore like it usually would be. 8.7 tonight would be a great result tonight with some regions depressed. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Right, what I wanted to confirm was the before any atp adjustments. I know you said a while ago that you might try to incorporate that sort of thing at final bell. Pretty sure you mean 8.7 before but wanted to get totally clear. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
70% for 2nd half of day will be 8.7 before any atp adjustment, right porthos? I would definitely consider that Sacto pointing to over 9 in reality — though with cancelled showings in parts of northeast, all other regions may turn in more of a regional overperformance than expected Tuesday. Philly+MTCs will tell the tale. I just woke up and read through the thread… …as the board member with perhaps the highest expectations for Shang-Chi just gotta say “LOL” at the proclivity for mass hysteria around here. Even if ida pushes this to 7 previews or something, that will be absolutely fine. The business mostly just moves to later days and inflates the IM. Perhaps 7*11 in a negative case? I would personally be fine with that given external circumstances, and the industry will consider Ida as well if need be when evaluating the performance. Everything is fine. -
Official France Box Office Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Olive's topic in International Box Office
Yeah, legs should be better at least. How is the impact of vaccine passports at the moment? -
Official France Box Office Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Olive's topic in International Box Office
Yikes -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
My god, it’s so late in our time zone I assumed you had already posted Anyway lovely day, regionals with atp adjustment seem like they’re heading toward the 9-10 zone just like MTCs. Edit: from the reacts I see we have plenty of pacific nightbirds here! -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Mentioned this is club thread, but currently expecting Fri PS to be at 87% of Th on the final update tomorrow, and then go about 2.55x PSm (this can be argued a little optimistic). That would give Friday as 2.2 or so of Th. From current 9.4 preview thoughts would get you 20.7M, and using my optimistic expectations for good reception and daily bumps/drops about 10.25x IM and 96M weekend. With 9 previews and more conservative 2.43x PSm+ 4x true IM would be looking like 19 Fri, 85M 4day. We could get even lower of course but that’s where we start to need at least one factor to trend poorly. Optimistic case I guess 9.8*10.4 is 102. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah as always the last day is make or break in the end 😛 I’m getting around 9.4 if the final day multiplier is 2:1 weighted combination of BW and TSS, or 9.3 if it’s 3:1 weighted. I don’t think it will go below that though of course no guarantees. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Slower than I would have liked but only by a tad. Given the weather in northeast I’d say a perfectly solid day. I am going back down to 9-10 though. -
Put another way, there is no point in issuing an actual meltdown bar for a movie where collective expectations are so miscalibrated on the low side that the level of performance which would trigger a for realsies meltdown can’t actually happen. I will shorten it to “crumbling bar” in the future for such cases, and likely continue to use “meltdown bar” if the collective expectations are well-calibrated such that my 10th percentile target actually does risk some real melting down.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
9-01 3:15 But like I told Jat I don’t really have a sense of the hourly trends (how much of a non-final-day weekday’s sales is concentrated between, say, 16:00 and 20:00) so I was keeping an open mind until we got keyser 24. Glad to hear that it looked normal to you, fwiw I was targeting a 26% increase in gross today. Not sure if it looks on track for that or if you simply had lower expectations.