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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, so now we’re in more of a linguistic discussion. Iirc when I first did this I called it a “meltdown/flop/crumbling bar” — terms which, I hope, conveyed the somewhat tongue-in-cheek nature of the endeavor to begin with (going down to the 1s place is also intended to convey this). Those 3 aren’t perfectly aligned, and while I have often shortened it as a meltdown bar probably “crumbling” comes closest to the essence of my considerations when picking a number. Which is that, based on info early in the week of release, it should be a number that is very likely to be passed but not completely guaranteed. This is so as to preserve some meaning to a claim of “it went over so I’m happy enough vs it went under so I’m disappointed” at the end of the whole shebang. Now considering media expectations and the previous Labor 4day record of 30.6, I could just set a bar of 61.2 and call it a day, but this is totally un informative because it’s definitely going to beat that bar. I might as well choose $31M or $3M or whatever. So I’m aiming for, I guess about a 10th percentile performance. 90% “this went well enough considering what we knew” and 10% “ouch, this is not necessarily a financial flop per se but thing between when I set the bar and now went pretty dang poorly.”
  2. Cooper Legion
    FWIW the recent run at MTC2 did look much weaker than I was hoping for today, so I have adjusted back down… to 9-10
  3. Cooper Legion
    I have been bested by the facts. 72,017,777 it is.
  4. Cooper Legion
    Gonna continue over here. In short — I am not joking, and I disagree. 75M from here would require a brutally bad Wednesday and or Thursday and/or internal behavior, and I would consider it a legit case of crumbling. I think a lot of other people wouldn’t, but that’s just because they aren’t paying as close attention to the MTC run vs BW. I gave 86M for BW because I felt it was a real lowball. For that movie I was, I think, pretty well calibrated with broader board expectations — but I have no particular concern for that. I gave 21 for TSS as an approximately comparable level of lowball. For that movie I was, I think, more pessimistic than the broader board expectations — but I have no particular concern for that. And I think 80M for the 4day here is again, pretty lowballing. For this movie I am, I think, considerably more optimistic than the broader board expectations — but I have no particular concern for that. If it does come in under then I will consider that perhaps my methodology is flawed and err even more on the low side, but if it comes in over I don’t see much need to adjust things. You can just consider that my seeming optimism was in fact realism.
  5. Cooper Legion
    Well, the meltdown bar is 4day and we’re definitely going over 8 for previews, so this checks out pretty well I feel?
  6. Cooper Legion
    64/78
  7. Cooper Legion
    They should move the last duel to September 24 to induce a new public long-range forecast
  8. Cooper Legion
    Depends when T-0 gets counted I suppose. Having windows of 21-27 hours sometimes instead of strict 24 can make comps a little more error prone but that’s just the nature of the beast as IRL stuff can interfere with the timing.
  9. Cooper Legion
    Pretty close to national. I would expect Shang to come in right around that 1.75 mark, but we’ll see when we see.
  10. Cooper Legion
    I’m not “policing your opinion.” Just pointing out that it’s not a very widely shared one so naturally lots of people aren’t going to have the same rankings of CBMs as your hyper villain focused approach would lead to.
  11. Cooper Legion
    What did the comps do for final day multiplier?
  12. Cooper Legion
    Not lying, but iirc this is not the first time you’ve asserted this with seemingly little awareness that it’s a pretty weird niche opinion.
  13. Cooper Legion
    Hey @charlie Jatinder how is Canada IM usually compared to USA?
  14. Cooper Legion
  15. Cooper Legion
    I think it will overindex in Canada, but wasn’t there dramatically more restrictions (and full on shutdowns) for BW?
  16. Cooper Legion
    You’ll escape the 🍍 because your 🍍range was 75-85 and it will go over 85
  17. Cooper Legion
    Meltdown bar $80,366,312
  18. Cooper Legion
    20% makes sense only interpreted as recent run rate rather than cume.
  19. Cooper Legion
    LMAO, deadline going for the full 100% lowball However, this was an interesting nugget This is even stronger than we had thought before if they mean cume. If they mean recent day pace only it’s right what we thought.
  20. Cooper Legion
    I had it 61% MTC2. But 86% MTC1 for like 78% overall.
  21. Cooper Legion
    Wow, what a crazy unbelievably good episode. the first one of these that created its own emotional investment and stakes vs cribbing off of your investment in main canon characters. I liked the previous eps too to be clear, but this is like 9.5/10 vs say 7/10, 8/10, 8/10. Also very interested in the serialized season plot, which I believe we’re starting to get our first hints toward.
  22. Cooper Legion
    “Legion of the Ten Previews” will be the perfect synthesis
  23. Cooper Legion
    Just in case there was any ambiguity…
  24. Cooper Legion
    Think I have to move off the 9-10 I have been insisting on since Friday.
  25. Cooper Legion
    Alternatively I could become “100M Legion.” Or maybe, “9-10M Legion?” Options, options
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