Cooper Legion
Gold Account-
Posts
23,035 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
17
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Everything posted by Cooper Legion
-
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
20M previews here we go -
Free Guy | 20th Century | August 13 2021
Cooper Legion replied to Box Office Hit's topic in Box Office Discussion
It’s good your family enjoyed the movie, just seemed odd to compare to a movie that isn’t out yet (vs, I dunno, a movie that you have seen). So I wondered if maybe you had caught one of the sneaks or something. Shang-Chi is also an accessible action comedy and I’d expect will have a lot of overlap with people who enjoy Free Guy, but I’ll defer to your assessment of your own kids taste 😛 -
Free Guy | 20th Century | August 13 2021
Cooper Legion replied to Box Office Hit's topic in Box Office Discussion
Have you.. seen Shang-chi? -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I should clarify — some regionals seem to be on a pretty steady seesaw. Don’t really know why. But it is the sort of things that mostly washes out at national scale data, and national data is really where it’s at. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Been on the good day-bad day seesaw for quite a while now. Using a 2-day moving average would probably stabilize a lot of analysis. Of course if Th ends up as a bad day per pattern that would kind of outweigh everything else 😆 -
Unadjusted is rough when the time period spans 13 years though. OW ranks for solo subfranchise first entries: BP 5th (current 209M) IM1 10th (183M) CM 18th (158M) SMH 29th (138M) gotg 32nd (134M) Hulk 55th (103M) Thor 55th (103M) Cap:TFA 63rd (98M) DS1 64th (97M) BW 96th (80.366M 😛 ) AM1 128th (70M) Now some of these aren’t really “new character introduction.” BP was in CW, BW was in lots of stuff before, SMH was in 5 solo movies outside the mcu, CM was teased in IW. And BW would have been more like 50th without PA even with the pandemic (using 110M est). Shang Chi seems to me to be headed for an OW right around 128th, so O/U the worst in the franchise. But not so bad under the circumstances — that would suggest (to me, just from gut) a non pandemic OW that ranked around hulk/Thor. So indeed, mid-upper tier for new character movie.
-
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
For the people comping vs BW without Canada or ATP considerations, you’re gonna get like 8.5, but it’s actually going to mean like 10. Which is no guarantee that the national figure will be 10 — but if the national comes in at 8.5 it wouldn’t be a case of “regional comp was bang on” it would be a case of “regional suggested 10 in reality but it overperformed regionally, cancelling out.” -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
But a final Denver comp of “7.8” is actually more like 9! Since, as I understand it, correct me if I’m wrong, you aren’t correcting for Canada (Ontario) or with the higher atp, right? Just SC admits/BW admits. If vs BW straight admits admits gives 7.8, then using 10% higher ATP it’s ~8.6 and then considering Canada ~9.0. I feel like this didn’t get the attention it deserved when it was first discussed, pretty important. SC tickets are 12% higher ATP for MTC T-3! Furthermore, MTC1 has higher ATP than MTC2 for previews, so the greater MTC1 skew, while it comes with some drawbacks as well and hopefully become less extreme by final day, increase the SC ATP/BW ATP by even more. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Huge surge, but I also notice this is about 27 hours after yday. Was it a slightly later run or performed about the same time and weren’t able to post until now? -
4day/3day really shouldn’t crack 1.26 I was just going to look up whether the tradition was to do the final flop bar Mon or tues (answer — Tues for BW, Sun for TSS, think Tues default). I will probably jack it up some, as it’s for the 4day, but keep in mind that it’s intended to be a figure that going below would be actually really bad/sad to me and justify people melting down in the thread in my eyes, which is a generally unpleasant experience. I went with a mere 21M for TSS, which was really lenient, and 86 for BW, which, umm… I thought was really lenient. Generally aiming for like a -1.5 to -2 z sort of thing.
-
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Guys I think it’s possible that this new character MCU entry might not have its PS run be as frontloaded as an OG Avenger’s 8th starring role. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
A regional overperformance seems likely from “NYC local” — but on the other hand, comps could still grow. I am still targeting 9-10ish national final.