Cooper Legion

Probably 9+, but the admit/admit comps without any ATP consideration should end up in 8-9 range yes.

I could see V2 and Halloween kills going over 100 between them, sure. Oct 22, no way. V2 and kills will both drop mightily, maybe like 60M combined for optimism? And Dune won't sniff 40, so if you're going over 100 there it is taking at least the next couple movies to push it over the edge.

Tbf, the best weekends in normality are carried by like 90% of their gross from a Marvel or SW blockbuster. So if the first 5 weekends over 100M post-pandemic are like, BW SC V2 Eternals NWH OWs… well, meet the new Hollywood, same as the old Hollywood. Though Oct 8 and 22 also have solid shots.

The 2021 slate is a lot of used to be 2020 movies, and 2020 looked like it could be the worst year of the century iirc, so… even if we were at 100%, it’s not like we’d have a 2019-style bunch-of-400M-grosser romp. BW without PA in same conditions you’ve got like 270+, without any covid what, 340? F9 basically matched H&S, AQP2 had good retention from the original, Free Guy is making nearly as much as you’d expect with no covid… Gotta wait and see how Oct goes of course but the weekends have been paltry in large part because of paltry product and streaming releases.

$100 or bust

The POWAH of The Cameo

160/118 looks like 9 to me, hoping more 175/130 I suppose.

Just realized Shang-Chi will probably be the first 3 #1s in a row since regal reopening.

Massively MTC heavy after all @charlie Jatinder

It’s looking at 9-10ish, keeping pace or slightly exceeding what I wanted to see. Keep in mind the Ontario and atp difference (for applicable trackers, e.g. Porthos already does Ontario so don’t want to double dip).

They will all open like 150-250 whereas the nums given are in the 80-100 range, pretty clear indication of percent hyped rather than OW.

I have no bale hype, so I guess: DSITMOM 96 BPWF 86 TL&T 85 Marvels 80

It is true that both comps I used are originals, but my suspicion is that DAJK has a little bit too much summer factor in the Sat still. Even if the audience really rejects it and there was some fan rush (though an 8.4 off of 1.9 wouldn’t seem to indicate that) maybe a flat Sat, -35% Sun, 1.9+6.5*2.65->19.1 The 8.4 would be a great OD to begin with though, suspect we’ll come in lower.

I doubt it goes below a 2.8 true IM even with weak reception. 1.9+6.5*2.8-> 20.1

Wow, going for a brutal Sat there. Opening on the pre-Labor day weekend Don’t Breathe went +21% and Ready or Not +31% (after a Wed open).

It’s always a matter of whether the movie is big enough, right? Even in the before times. I don’t know if they have a hard and fast internal rule but anecdotally I think about a 10M true fri/30M+ weekend is where we start getting the mid-fri updates — should easily get one for SC but then probably nothing else until NTTD.

An 8.4 Fri should lead to a 20+ weekend, so I can only assume you’re seeing a lower Fri?

Yeah, geopolitical reasons for Korea to be much smaller OS-C% than usual for mcu.

Agree with tiger paw here, 400 WW-C should be no problem without PA and with minimal competition. DOM should go 200+ and OS at least match it.

Secret Invasion is absolutely coming out before and I’m pretty sure leads directly into The Marvels. It starts production within a month if it hasn’t already and the turnaround time on the shows is a little less than the movies. I don’t know exactly how they’ll play it but you could in theory have the show finale the day before movie previews — awkward for New Zealand and such.

Yeah, I dunno if Marvels can increase from CM’s Endgame boosted run — but I have a sneaking suspicion that it will be a strong 1-2 punch coming hot off the heels of Secret Invasion. In some ways Thor has the least added value elements despite featuring GotG!

I don’t even know that 1.2 is enough to miss being the lowest grossing of the 4. What a fucking bonkers stacked year. I am personally more hyped about this than any of the other 3 though, will be happy with really any ordering as long as they’re all big and enjoyable.

Their haven’t been any connection between episodes yet, so you could also just watch 2 and 3 and go back to 1 later.

We’re not that far from full capacity tbh. I agree with Jat that closures are at a level where they don’t matter much since locations can substitute each other. I don’t fully agree that things have been performing at a non covid level (though iirc @ViewerAnon made a pretty similar claim on Twitter a few weeks ago). But it is pretty… interesting, at the very least, how robust the box office has been for the past month. Candyman looking at 25+ probably, quite strong. Free Guy at 28 was quite good, and then at 18.5 was even better. Jungle Cruise at 35M with a same day streaming option that was actively cheaper for families, and then TSS was brutally low but perhaps not really that low considering Birds of Prey at 33M and the even more damaging same day streaming model. Despite the spiking case numbers we’ve seen movie after movie exceed expectations.